Oct 15, 2020, 6:45 pm
Local lockdowns in the UK
Dec 21, 2021, 7:35 am
#8371
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Absolutely. If you ignore all the evidence from South Africa and come up with bizarre arguments based on the season and South Africans being super human virus resistant people - then yes there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever.
Incredible that cases have gone up quite an bit in the UK bit but hospitalisations not so much, but again just ignore this too
Incredible that cases have gone up quite an bit in the UK bit but hospitalisations not so much, but again just ignore this too
I know it is the mood in the UK to dismiss and even descend scientists in order to create division, but please, you are more clever than that. When the most brilliant minds on the field say they do not know and that evidence is not there yet, I tend to believe them.
Or then write to the ECDC to tell them they are wrong:
Data are currently too limited to assess the severity of disease caused by the Omicron VOC in the EU/EEA population with sufficient confidence
Dec 21, 2021, 7:36 am
#8372
Ambassador, British Airways; FlyerTalk Posting Legend
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I know it is the mood in the UK to dismiss and even descend scientists in order to create division, but please, you are more clever than that. When the most brilliant minds on the field say they do not know and that evidence is not there yet, I tend to believe them.
Or then write to the ECDC to tell them they are wrong:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...isk-assessment
Or then write to the ECDC to tell them they are wrong:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...isk-assessment
Dec 21, 2021, 7:37 am
#8373
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Please quote me on that.
Dec 21, 2021, 7:39 am
#8374
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Dec 21, 2021, 7:41 am
#8375
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I also said there are too many confounding variables, but there are clues.
The South African experience are the clues, but this is not a clear evidence because of the confounding variables. Simpson paradox could explain as well the South African experience than Omicron being less virulent intrinsically.
In clear, I am not dismissing it at all. All I am saying is that there are several explanations to explain them, all of them perfectly credible (I am not invoking seasons or super powers).
The South African experience are the clues, but this is not a clear evidence because of the confounding variables. Simpson paradox could explain as well the South African experience than Omicron being less virulent intrinsically.
In clear, I am not dismissing it at all. All I am saying is that there are several explanations to explain them, all of them perfectly credible (I am not invoking seasons or super powers).
Dec 21, 2021, 7:43 am
#8376
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I also said there are too many confounding variables, but there are clues.
The South African experience are the clues, but this is not a clear evidence because of the confounding variables. Simpson paradox could explain as well the South African experience than Omicron being less virulent intrinsically.
The South African experience are the clues, but this is not a clear evidence because of the confounding variables. Simpson paradox could explain as well the South African experience than Omicron being less virulent intrinsically.
Dec 21, 2021, 7:49 am
#8377
FlyerTalk Evangelist
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Hi
looks like large scale hogmanay events in Scotland are going to be cancelled following the first ministers speech.. other restrictions on hospitality are being announced.
Regards
Tbs
looks like large scale hogmanay events in Scotland are going to be cancelled following the first ministers speech.. other restrictions on hospitality are being announced.
Regards
Tbs
Dec 21, 2021, 7:51 am
#8378
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Dec 21, 2021, 7:53 am
#8379
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: GLA
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Posts: 2,964
So, from 26 December in Scotland:
Indoor standing events limited to 100 people.
Indoor seating events limited to 200.
Outdoor events limited to 500.
All the above apply to public events, not private (e.g. weddings).
Return to mandatory table service in venues serving alcohol.
Return to mandatory 1m distancing between parties (not within them) in hospitality.
Indoor standing events limited to 100 people.
Indoor seating events limited to 200.
Outdoor events limited to 500.
All the above apply to public events, not private (e.g. weddings).
Return to mandatory table service in venues serving alcohol.
Return to mandatory 1m distancing between parties (not within them) in hospitality.
Dec 21, 2021, 7:56 am
#8380
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,756
The last two times the Government dithered about making a decision (March and November 2020) it lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths and longer periods of restrictions - will we be lucky the third time?
I think yes - everything is different this time with a big proportion of people vaccinated and signs from Denmark that the case hospitalization rate is closer to 0.5% (compared to 1.3% for Delta). Still a very nervous time.
I think yes - everything is different this time with a big proportion of people vaccinated and signs from Denmark that the case hospitalization rate is closer to 0.5% (compared to 1.3% for Delta). Still a very nervous time.
Dec 21, 2021, 8:27 am
#8381
Join Date: Apr 2018
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I think different people mean different things by the word "evidence". In normal speech, and to the lay man, signs, indications, provisional results, are all evidence. To the scientist, nothing is evidence until it is in official results or a peer-reviewed paper.
It always amuses me how the words "stress" and "strain" have their meanings exactly reversed between normal speech and engineering principles.
It always amuses me how the words "stress" and "strain" have their meanings exactly reversed between normal speech and engineering principles.
Dec 21, 2021, 8:39 am
#8382
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i am not sure I agree with your suggestion, but for the sake of argument if South Africa doesn’t count as evidence yet, neither does Denmark. You cant have it both ways. There is a huge amount of data from South Africa already available spanning several weeks
Dec 21, 2021, 8:46 am
#8383
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
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The early UK data show no differences in hospitalization between Omicron and Delta, although the Omicron numbers are still small....There is detailed pdf and tables...
"Hospitalisation and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with Omicron infection, suggesting at most limited changes in severity compared with Delta."
"Hospitalisation and asymptomatic infection indicators were not significantly associated with Omicron infection, suggesting at most limited changes in severity compared with Delta."
Last edited by nk15; Dec 21, 2021 at 9:06 am
Dec 21, 2021, 9:02 am
#8384
Moderator, Iberia Airlines, Airport Lounges, and Ambassador, British Airways Executive Club
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I have spent the last 2 weeks going through all the papers and meta data. And at the moment
- I am convinced Omicron is a lot more virulent than Delta (which really is saying something given that Delta crushed all other variants thank to its virulence)
- I still haven't a clue on the pathological profile of Omicron in the UK. Some data from SA is promising, but it's only been in the last few days that Omicron has taken off. It's just too soon to say.
The obvious point is that if Omicron has a pathological severity half that of Delta, but an R rate of say 4, then this isn't looking good. Plus the problem is that core civic services may not be sustainable if case numbers rocket.
- I am convinced Omicron is a lot more virulent than Delta (which really is saying something given that Delta crushed all other variants thank to its virulence)
- I still haven't a clue on the pathological profile of Omicron in the UK. Some data from SA is promising, but it's only been in the last few days that Omicron has taken off. It's just too soon to say.
The obvious point is that if Omicron has a pathological severity half that of Delta, but an R rate of say 4, then this isn't looking good. Plus the problem is that core civic services may not be sustainable if case numbers rocket.
Dec 21, 2021, 9:10 am
#8385
Join Date: Nov 2012
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i think you are being very generous
i am not sure I agree with your suggestion, but for the sake of argument if South Africa doesn’t count as evidence yet, neither does Denmark. You cant have it both ways. There is a huge amount of data from South Africa already available spanning several weeks
i am not sure I agree with your suggestion, but for the sake of argument if South Africa doesn’t count as evidence yet, neither does Denmark. You cant have it both ways. There is a huge amount of data from South Africa already available spanning several weeks