Thanks for this. Very informative. What would be interesting to also know is how many tests they were actually doing over the same period.

The other skew in the figures is that they are concentrating testing in areas where there is a lot of COVID about - university towns etc, which would naturally lead to more numbers being reported.

Essentially, the issue is that HMG is only reporting selective figures, which makes it impossible to compare one period's figures accurately with another. Now that SAGE has become a lobbying group, rather than a Government advisory committee, you will see an increase in apples and oranges comparisons which are designed to frighten people and overstate the case. Even hospital admissions needs to be treated with care, as back in March the whole emphasis was on not going to hospital (let's not forget that Boris himself was admitted far too late and would not have been admitted at all had he been a private citizen - his symptons were not on the NHS 111 list of symptons necessary for hospital admission). As there is currently no pressure on bed capacity, it's far more likely that people will be admitted.

In short, we need to take it on trust, as we are not being provided with sufficient information to make an informed judgment.

What is interesting with the local travel restrictions within the UK is that it is not being extended to cover high incidence rates in ROI, even though ROI is exempt from the international quarantine regs. At the moment, people from ROI have more freedom to go move about in Wales for example than those from NI, Scotland, and huge parts of England.

... and even from huge parts of Wales!

Following areas moved from Tier 2 to Tier 3 with effect from 17 October. Post 37 amended.

Lancashire
Blackpool Council
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council
Burnley Borough Council
Chorley Borough Council
Fylde Borough Council
Hyndburn Borough Council
Lancaster City Council
Pendle Borough Council
Preston City Council
Ribble Valley Borough Council
Rossendale Borough Council
South Ribble Borough Council
West Lancashire Borough Council
Wyre Borough Council

Welsh Travel Restrictions

The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (No. 2) (Wales) (Amendment) (No. 19) Regulations 2020 (SI 2020/1130)
(this amends The Health Protection (Coronavirus Restrictions) (No. 2) (Wales) Regulations 2020 (SI 2020/725))
In force from 6pm 16 October 2020

Local lockdown areas in Wales have additional movement restrictions, see post 14 for a list of those areas.

Restrictions now in place from 16 October. Effectively:
- No person living in an areas listed below may, without a reasonable excuse, enter or remain in a part of Wales. It is not a reasonable excuse for a person to enter or remain in Wales to do anything if it would be reasonably practicable to do that thing outside Wales.
- No person living in a part of Wales may, without a reasonable excuse, leave Wales for the purpose of entering an areas listed below. It is not a reasonable excuse for a person to leave Wales for the purpose of entering any area listed below to do anything if it would be reasonably practicable for the person to do that thing somewhere else.

A non-exhaustive list of what may be considered a reasonable excuse is included, and some examples are:
- obtaining food & medical supplies
- work where it is not reasonably practicable to carry out the work outside the area
- attending marriages and funerals
- access educational services
- travel to reach a place outside the area.

The last one mean if you lived in Wales you may be able to go to Manchester airport or Liverpool airport for the purpose of flying to somewhere else in the UK not on the list or flying abroad.

Enforcement would include being told to return home or being punished on summary conviction by a fine by way of a fixed penalty notice of £30, rising to £120, £240, £480, £960, and £1920 for subsequent fixed penalty notices for repeat offenders.

These are the areas (essentially all Tier 2 and 3 in England and all central belt areas in Scotland currently under increased restrictions):

Cheshire
Cheshire East Council
Cheshire West and Chester Council
Warrington Borough Council

Cumbria
Barrow-in-Furness Borough Council

Derbyshire
Chesterfield Borough Council
Erewash Borough Council
North East Derbyshire District Council

In the area of High Peak Borough Council, the following electoral areas (as defined by section 203(1) of the Representation of the People Act 1983(7))—
Dinting
Gamesley
Hadfield North
Hadfield South
Howard Town
Old Glossop
Padfield
Simmondley
St John’s
Tintwistle
Whitfield

Durham
Durham County Council

Essex
Basildon Council
Braintree District Council
Brentwood Borough Council
Castle Point Borough Council
Chelmsford City Council
Colchester Borough Council
Epping Forest District Council
Harlow Council
Maldon District Council
Rochford District Council
Tendring District Council
Uttlesford District Council

Greater London
The Common Council of the City of London
Barking and Dagenham Borough Council
Barnet Borough Council
Bexley Borough Council
Brent Borough Council
Bromley Borough Council
Camden Borough Council
Croydon Borough Council
Ealing Borough Council
Enfield Borough Council
Greenwich Borough Council
Hackney Borough Council
Hammersmith and Fulham Borough Council
Haringey Borough Council
Harrow Borough Council
Havering Borough Council
Hillingdon Borough Council
Hounslow Borough Council
Islington Borough Council
Kensington and Chelsea Borough Council
Kingston upon Thames Borough Council
Lambeth Borough Council
Lewisham Borough Council
Merton Borough Council
Newham Borough Council
Redbridge Borough Council
Richmond upon Thames Borough Council
Southwark Borough Council
Sutton Borough Council
Tower Hamlets Borough Council
Waltham Forest Borough Council
Wandsworth Borough Council
Westminster City Council

Greater Manchester
Bolton Metropolitan Borough Council
Bury Metropolitan Borough Council
Manchester City Council
Oldham Metropolitan Borough Council
Rochdale Borough Council
Salford City Council
Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council
Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council
Trafford Metropolitan Borough Council
Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council

Lancashire
Blackpool Council
Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council
Burnley Borough Council
Chorley Borough Council
Fylde Borough Council
Hyndburn Borough Council
Lancaster City Council
Pendle Borough Council
Preston City Council
Ribble Valley Borough Council
Rossendale Borough Council
South Ribble Borough Council
West Lancashire Borough Council
Wyre Borough Council

Leicestershire
Leicester City Council
Oadby and Wigston Borough Council

Merseyside
Halton Borough Council
Knowsley Metropolitan Borough Council
Liverpool City Council
Sefton Borough Council
St Helens Borough Council
Wirral Metropolitan Borough Council

Northumberland
Northumberland County Council

North Yorkshire
City of York Council

Nottinghamshire
Ashfield District Council
Bassetlaw District Council
Broxtowe Borough Council
Gedling Borough Council
Mansfield District Council
Newark & Sherwood District Council
Nottingham City Council
Rushcliffe Borough Council

South Yorkshire
Barnsley Metropolitan Borough Council
Doncaster Council
Rotherham Metropolitan Borough Council
Sheffield City Council

Surrey
Elmbridge Borough Council

Tees Valley
Darlington Borough Council
Hartlepool Borough Council
Middlesbrough Borough Council
Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council
Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council

Tyne and Wear
Gateshead Council
Newcastle City Council
North Tyneside Council
South Tyneside Council
Sunderland City Council

West Midlands
Birmingham City Council
Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council
Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council
City of Wolverhampton Council
Walsall Council

West Yorkshire
City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council
Calderdale Metropolitan Borough Council
Kirklees Metropolitan Council
Leeds City Council
Wakefield Council

Scotland
City of Glasgow
Clackmannanshire
East Ayrshire
East Dunbartonshire
East Renfrewshire
East Lothian
Edinburgh City
Falkirk
Inverclyde
Midlothian
North Ayrshire
North Lanarkshire
Renfrewshire
South Ayrshire
South Lanarkshire
Stirling
West Dunbartonshire
West Lothian

My sympathies to the entire UK. In my home area, COVID is getting worse, higher rates of infection. All my plans (and plans of many friends and family) are cancelled. With good reason. My yearly November trip to London is cancelled and I doubt I’ll be able to attend Paris International Agricultural Show is taking place at Paris Expo Porte de Versailles. The end of Feb to March, 2021. I’ve gone the past several years.

I get tested at work every two weeks. I just pray this nightmare virus ends soon. This virus has destroyed the worlds economy and killed countless people. But, you all knew that.

Self-isolating in a High(Tier 2) area
 

We have a relative scheduled to visit us in London in a couple of weeks, booked under the assumption that she could come, self-isolate with us for the duration of her trip (less than 14 days) and then fly out. Does being in a High (Tier 2) area change that calculation in any way? Technically, she's a different household and we'd be mixing. Or am I reading this too narrowly and rather than mixing of household she becomes a part of our household during her stay here?

I would say being in tier 2 means that is not allowed.

I fear that we are a long way off having physical shows or exhibitions anywhere, particularly indoor ones. As to travel generally, I do believe that it will open up to a certain extent over the coming months as, with most countries having it rife, it won't be much more dangerous sitting and going about your daily life in London, New York or Rome. The key will be for all countries to slowly converge on a new normal pattern of behaviour - social distancing, washing hands, wearing masks etc. We're sort of doing that anyway and it's not a huge leap to understand that the same behaviour in another city won't increase anyone's risk. But politics will get in the way, especially combined with the nasty strain of blaming foreigners for all evils that seems to have infected the US government. It's easy to ban foreigners (essentially what the US has done) but much more difficult to permit them in again.

I think that is correct and, of course, she'll have to give your address on the arrival form so it's a trivial matter for someone to spot that the address is in Tier 2. However, whilst it's a trivial matter, it is probably well beyond the wit of the Home Office to put 2 and 2 together.

Does your relative normally live alone? Or is a single parent where the children were under 18 on 12 June 2020? If so, she can be added to your support bubble. It's arguable, since there is an exemption for "legal obligations", so while in Tier 2 it's not in the spirit of the legislation to mix households, there are so many grey areas (e.g. recovering from addictions, Remembrance Sunday events, new parents with babies).

Whilst you may or may not be at any substantially different risk going quietly about your business in one city or another, the very act of travel between them (particularly if travel starts picking up again), of getting to and/from airports on public transport, queuing for security and passport control, touching trays and scanners, mingling in lounges and airport bars, queuing to board and then sitting in near proximity to others, etc. all adds an extra element of risk.

That was my initial thought, but then I started reading both sets of guidance and while there's nothing explicit about international travel in https://www.gov.uk/guidance/local-co...ert-level-high nor about Tier 2 areas in https://www.gov.uk/government/public...avel-to-the-uk (how could there be, it hasn't been updated since the new rules came out). All the language in the former is about "meeting socially" and "seeing". Does that really include someone moving in temporarily?

As a matter of fact, she does normally live alone. I guess that's a solid line of reasoning that can be pursued.

My interpretation of the apparent spirit of the legislation is that it's more concerned with short/casual/social mixing, but then again, I don't have much legislation interpretation training.

In the national lockdown in the spring/summer, it was allowed to move in with people, even if temporarily. IIRC government ministers said that moving in for the night didn't count, but a stay of about a week did.

Much of the concern at the moment is about mixing between households, catching COVID when visiting other people and taking it back with them to their own household (or worse others!) to spread. Someone moving in and not leaving for 14 days avoids most of that.

The law governing tier 2 lockdown is at https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/.../contents/made . I can't see anything in there which specifies how long someone needs to move in for to could as joining a household.

I can't see a 2 night stay counting as allowed. Someone coming for their 14 days self-isolation then staying on for another 2 weeks seems to be fine on my reading. In between is fuzzier...