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Southwest uses the same new Boeing plane in Indonesia crash

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Southwest uses the same new Boeing plane in Indonesia crash

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Old Mar 13, 2019, 10:45 am
  #226  
 
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Originally Posted by exwannabe
Where do you get those odds?

The MAX has flown under 20,000 flights, so the odds would around 1/10,000 per flight if the crashes represent the real risk.
Where did you get that number from? There were approximately 350 in service before the crash. If you figure 4 flights per day per plane, you get 1400 flights in just one day! At the pace, you get to 20,000 flights in about two weeks.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 10:47 am
  #227  
 
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Originally Posted by LegalTender
Used to be, when a major accident like this happened, global aviation authorities conferred with the FAA -- which took the lead.
Yeah, well the US doesn't try to lead anymore. It just tries to bully others into doing what it wants. There is a difference.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 10:59 am
  #228  
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Originally Posted by exwannabe
Where do you get those odds?

The MAX has flown under 20,000 flights, so the odds would around 1/10,000 per flight if the crashes represent the real risk.
HUH? 350 aircraft X 5 flights per day X 300 days (guessing that average age if about one year) = 525,000 flights. Somewhere I saw a claim that there are 8500 MAX 8 flights per week.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 11:40 am
  #229  
 
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Originally Posted by screeton
With these planes officially grounded almost everywhere except for North American carriers, what kind of exponential liability exposure awaits the carrier who continues to fly the plane?
I can imagine other potential liabilities if someone took it personally that their loved one(s) was killed on an airplane that obviously should've been grounded. Can there really be any doubt about that now ? Almost every other nation in the world has done it; we are not special.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 11:48 am
  #230  
 
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Originally Posted by RustyShackleford1
I can imagine other potential liabilities if someone took it personally that their loved one(s) was killed on an airplane that obviously should've been grounded. Can there really be any doubt about that now ? Almost every other nation in the world has done it; we are not special.
If the worst happens, the litigants can point to evey other country/aviation regulatory body grounding the plane as saying the FAA and/or US airlines should’ve grounded the planes - that it was the reasonable thing to do. With US FAs calling for groundings as well as news reports that US pilots have experienced the same issues but were able to correct, there will definitely be questions in any lawsuit as to what motivations the FAA has in not called for the planes to be grounded - whether it’s political reasons or prioritizing profits for the airlines over safety.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:13 pm
  #231  
 
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Originally Posted by RustyShackleford1
Where did you hear "safest in the business" ? And it doesn't matter, if there's something inherently wrong with the airplane, or some training issue that even the most skillful pilot can't deal with in timeframe involved.
By Domestic ASMs Southwest is either the largest or second largest airline in the US, by emplaned passengers Southwest is the third largest airline, and by other metrics they are very very large.

Since flights commenced in 1971, Southwest has had a single passenger fatality---and one that as a layperson looks more like a design flaw than anything the pilot could have done differently.

Terrorism aside, United last had a fatality in 2009, American in 2000 and Delta in 1996. I fly all three airlines regularly, and feel that the most dangerous part of air travel is getting into a car that will take me to the airport. This said, I feel even more comfortable with WN pilots than most, and living near SFO with United Mechanics who have their biggest operating base at that airport.

While I'm not a pilot, it's hard to find any other airline in the world that operates on a similar scale with such a stunningly good safety record.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:26 pm
  #232  
 
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Originally Posted by worldwidedreamer
Since flights commenced in 1971, Southwest has had a single passenger fatality---and one that as a layperson looks more like a design flaw than anything the pilot could have done differently.
I think crashes are so infrequent that it's tough to generalize about pilot competence just based on fatal incidents. I wonder what reported "incidents" look like among the major airlines ? What about other measures of pilots' training ?

it's hard to find any other airline in the world that operates on a similar scale with such a stunningly good safety record.
Qantas ? I know, until not too long ago (as famously stated in "Rainman") that they had suffered ZERO fatal incidents, despite being (I think) the oldest airline in the world. Ok, maybe not the same scale as the big US carriers. And maybe less opportunity for mishaps, with typically very long flights and thus fewer takeoffs and landings per passenger mile. On the other hand, alternate airports are a lot sparser out in the Pacific Ocean :-)
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:31 pm
  #233  
 
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Originally Posted by RustyShackleford1
I think crashes are so infrequent that it's tough to generalize about pilot competence just based on fatal incidents. I wonder what reported "incidents" look like among the major airlines ? What about other measures of pilots' training ?

Qantas ? I know, until not too long ago (as famously stated in "Rainman") that they had suffered ZERO fatal incidents, despite being (I think) the oldest airline in the world. Ok, maybe not the same scale as the big US carriers. And maybe less opportunity for mishaps, with typically very long flights and thus fewer takeoffs and landings per passenger mile. On the other hand, alternate airports are a lot sparser out in the Pacific Ocean :-)
You confirm my point: Air travel is incredibly safe, and Southwest remains one of the safest airlines in the world. It's hard to make precise comparisons because every airline has its own operational history and constraints (e.g. WN still has not had a revenue ETOPS flight.)
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:37 pm
  #234  
 
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135pm CDT Trump babbling "live" now... Grounding -MAX flights in the USA
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:42 pm
  #235  
 
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I am glad that the USA has finally and belatedly joined the rest of the world in grounding these planes until there is a better understanding of what caused the two crashes. From the beginning, the question should have been "What if these two are connected by some design or pilot training flaw?" Instead, the FAA for whatever reason subscribed to the "What if these are random events?" philosophy -- a totally indefensible position in this situation. Good that they are on the ground until we get answers. Bad that everyone else in the world led, while the USA followed as the last, foot-dragging country, and even then used it as a political grandstanding opportunity for someone rather than having the FAA -- the supposed experts in the field -- simply make an announcement that the grounding would take effect.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:44 pm
  #236  
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The Canadian announcement earlier today made me suspect that there's something in the data.....

Good luck to those who need to travel within the next few days.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:47 pm
  #237  
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Good to see the USA has finally followed the Chinese air authorities to protect the flying public
in dead last position lol. Now the FAA is now owned by the corporate entities that they are supposed to regulate just like the FDA and Big Pharma. My faith in the FAA is now forever broken.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 12:53 pm
  #238  
 
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Good luck to those who need to travel within the next few days.
So any thoughts about much chaos this will cause in Southwest's operations ? According to Wikipedia, they have 35 of the MAX aircraft out of a total fleet of 755 (a little shy of 5%).
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 1:03 pm
  #239  
 
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Boeing is now backpeddling.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-re...ts?item=130404

And the planes are grounded and WN doesn’t get the credit for choosing safety over profit. Big miss on WN.
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Old Mar 13, 2019, 2:52 pm
  #240  
 
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So the passage of time from the accident to the grounding has been about 18 hours (in China) to about 80 hours (in the US) with other countries scattered in between. I realize we experience these things in "Internet time," but it has all happened in relatively short order. Now we can focus on discussing the coming reports of what happened and the possible/likely causes.
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