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UAL's Investor Day (Highlights: Route, Gauge Changes; $ Cuts)

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UAL's Investor Day (Highlights: Route, Gauge Changes; $ Cuts)

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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 9:55 am
  #61  
 
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Originally Posted by CALMSP
i didnt see any reductions today (from overall flying). only increased flying. Did you not read that?
It seemed to me that there are a lot of cuts in Asia.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 9:59 am
  #62  
 
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Originally Posted by mitchmu
It seemed to me that there are a lot of cuts in Asia.
I think the additions and the cuts somewhat neutralize each other...so yes there is both. At the end of the day, it is about optimizing the network.

As we all know, DL in Seattle added some flights, but they also cancelled Sea-Osaka and SFO-NRT, so things were optimized. Same thing UA is doing.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:01 am
  #63  
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United is the new Breaking Bad. I don't see this ending well for anyone.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:01 am
  #64  
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Originally Posted by 5khours
...Do they honestly believe that increasing fuel efficiency in the industry is all going to fall directly to the bottom line?
In all seriousness, how do you project fuel savings without a stable cost. I understand that one could save x% by adding new planes but actual dollar savings could disappear, reappear...if oil hits $120 barrel for instance and you cost has been reduced on a new plane by 15% but actual cost goes up by 20% the actual savings vanish??? Does United still hedge on fuel?
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:10 am
  #65  
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I bet the morale of the staff nosedived when they heard $2BN of cuts.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:11 am
  #66  
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Interesting that they will begin replacement of the A319/A320 fleet in 2016.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:15 am
  #67  
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Originally Posted by Silver Fox
I bet the morale of the staff nosedived when they heard $2BN of cuts.
Less than half of that would affect the staff as they count 1B from fuel consumption (newer aircraft and less routes I assume)... from the slides, we see

* 1B from Fuel Consumption
* 100M from maintenance
* 500M from productivity
* 150M from sourcing
* 100M from distribution
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:15 am
  #68  
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Oh, well!

United is being "run like a business".

Management's presentations to the board and to the investors highlight only the good points.

Projections about savings (whether potential cuts or revenue increases) are always based on the best case scenarios. Past projections that did not turn out so well are always explained away.

Investors and board members usually believe what is presented.

Initially, the price of the stock goes up - for a while.

No one cares about what customers think or care about. Investors and board members are told that everyone loves the airline.

I wonder if investors and board members ever fly commercially ? I wonder what airline investors and Board Members are flying on?
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:16 am
  #69  
 
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Originally Posted by ElNegro
While they are at it, I would also like B747 service from O'Hare to Midway!
I would take that flight!!!
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:22 am
  #70  
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Originally Posted by edcho
Interesting that they will begin replacement of the A319/A320 fleet in 2016.
Current Economy seats (pre-slimline) are too comfortable given their view of those pesky over-entitled customers
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:31 am
  #71  
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Originally Posted by mitchmu
Add a route? Forget it. This is the incredible shrinking airline.
Must be borrowing the TWA playbook: "we're going to shrink the airline 'til its profitable"

This plan seems like a last minute thrown together copy/paste CO circa 1993 "from worst to first" strategy. However this time it's all about looking at ways to increase shareholder value and not necessarily build an airline for the longrun. Granted yes return on investment to shareholders is crucial, but how long can you sustain that? A few years at best? The biggest source of their cost savings comes out of fuel consumption $1B to be exact.....so when you have all the planes retrofitted with those dorky looking split winglets then what? Continue to outsource and replace eveyrthing at the airport with a kiosk?

What I am getting at is the core deficiency UA is experiencing in my opinion is they are chasing after how to increase revenue but not looking really where they could improve the airline in the longrun. I think the lack of network optimization and inconsistent hard/soft-product improvements are going to be an issue in the longrun.

Network Optimization
-too many hubs: again what purpose does CLE serve? Sure it "allegedly" holds its own but the resources used there could be better allocated elsewhere. You can call it reliever, focus city, what have you but I don't see how it will survive as 50 seaters head out the door. DEN...well my only thought there is that I would be curious to see how the yields are. I'm not saying to dump it completely but RJ's flying at WN/F9 fare levels can't be the best revenue strategy. Yes eliminating DEN would leave a substantial gap, but perhaps running things like DENSAN on everything from a CRJ to a 738 to a 757 five times a day isn't the best strategy. Sure they are trying to match demand with capacity, but I think actually that was a downfall of pmUA, and something that CO did right; frequency with pretty consistent capacity (5x 738s rather than a hodgepodge)

-and on that note too much mix: by this I mean running RJ's alongside mainline in competitive markets (SEASFO, ORD-LGA/DCA for example). Yes you increase frequency but the service isn't consistent. Meaning Express partners seem to have worse dispatch/on-time ratio's.....so from what I've seen, odd's are you'll be delayed on express but not on mainline because of how the aircraft are routed.....see IADEWR on ExpressJet for example.

Hard/soft product improvements
Look its obvious that UA or any American carrier is going to be LH or SQ when it comes to premium products. However UA could look at what DL, AA, or even US has done with their premium product improvements. Love them or hate them but they all seem to be consistent. With UA its hit or miss; sure you have two different fleets and configurations but what are they doing to address it? You could fly to LHR over one hub (on a 3 class plane) and fly back over another (on a two class) and the seats and service are completely different. And Global First is essentially a bigger seat and a bowl of soup....so either step it up or phase it out because there isn't anything distinctive about it.
Domestically the F product is a joke and what is clear is UA is looking more at upsells than retained loyalty/longterm high value clientle. Minimal improvements could be made that would potentially increase F fare purchases in lieu of upgrades/TOD's

Sure its a lot more complicated than what I've addressed but I think what UA outlined is a short-sighted kneejerk "oh crap we aren't making as much money as we did before" reaction. I really hope some new vision/leadership takes helm at UA
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:32 am
  #72  
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Originally Posted by kevanyalowitz
You are missing the point. United is cutting routes that aren't making money is fine. However, they aren't making money on these routes because they are allowing the competition to own markets (SEA) where UA was once strong. SEA-NRT has been around longer than any other United international route - why did it go from being profitable over the long term to unprofitable?
SEA-NRT was never really strong. It was the last TPAC PMUA route to get IPTE (remember the dreaded recliner C 772s? Yeah, those were on SEA-NRT to the bitter end) and NH limped in with a 787.

It's a weak route that only barely makes sense with a 787 and it just happens that NH is the one to provide it.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:34 am
  #73  
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Originally Posted by qukslvr619
The biggest source of their cost savings comes out of fuel consumption $1B to be exact.....so when you have all the planes retrofitted with those dorky looking split winglets then what? Continue to outsource and replace eveyrthing at the airport with a kiosk?
Fuel is the airline's tp expense. Cost savings there affects everything else.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:36 am
  #74  
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Originally Posted by edcho
Interesting that they will begin replacement of the A319/A320 fleet in 2016.
Any additional details? If they replace them with 73s that would be great... with RJs...not so much.

The 8/12 FC seats on mainline planes drive me nuts.
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Old Nov 19, 2013 | 10:40 am
  #75  
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Originally Posted by Bonehead
Any additional details? If they replace them with 73s that would be great... with RJs...not so much.

The 8/12 FC seats on mainline planes drive me nuts.
Would be great if they could pick up some next-gen 320s and fly them with 16F cabins..
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