Question on SPOT program
May 12, 2009 | 7:15 pm
#151
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May 13, 2009 | 12:59 am
#153
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 576
Sorry.
Wikipedia lays out a nice example here for bowel cancer, but 2 years of TSA's BDO program would have something like:
TP=1266 FP=158,000
FN=???? and TN=1,460,000,000
if you care about druggies, and
TP=<1 FP=160,000
FN=<1? TN=1,460,000,000
...if you care about terrorists.
The fractions are so close to zero or 100% that it is nearly impossible to tell if you are making things better or worse. Including druggies, ID thieves, liars, tax evaders, and speeders is what one would have to do to keep the testers from dying of boredom.
Wikipedia lays out a nice example here for bowel cancer, but 2 years of TSA's BDO program would have something like:
TP=1266 FP=158,000
FN=???? and TN=1,460,000,000
if you care about druggies, and
TP=<1 FP=160,000
FN=<1? TN=1,460,000,000
...if you care about terrorists.
The fractions are so close to zero or 100% that it is nearly impossible to tell if you are making things better or worse. Including druggies, ID thieves, liars, tax evaders, and speeders is what one would have to do to keep the testers from dying of boredom.
May 13, 2009 | 1:07 am
#154
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 3,006
If it were incompetant BDOs that caused the high failure rate there may be a reason to keep the program alive. The fact is the BDOs are not to blame for the voodoo sold to the TSA.
(forgive any spelling errors, I closed the spell checker already)
May 13, 2009 | 2:36 pm
#155
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 252
I thought the highlighted sentence was close to the mark because the "massive scale" of the BDO program is insignificant compared to the problem it pretends to solve.
If BDOs have a superhuman "lift" of 10000%, then the program would miss only 120,000 criminals for every 1266 arrests. But your BDO personnel would probably be smart enough to leave and earn their fortunes playing poker.
May 13, 2009 | 2:42 pm
#156
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 252
I'll 'splain. Is no time, I'll sum up:
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.
But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.
But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
TSA keeps saying "effective". I'm not sure that word means what they think it means.
I play statistics during my day job, but you are right. If they can't get their units right, they aren't much good.
May 13, 2009 | 3:25 pm
#158
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,004
Maybe that accounts for the shifting- A goalpost forever condemned to wander aimlessly in search of its goal... Tragic.
May 13, 2009 | 4:00 pm
#159
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I'll 'splain. Is no time, I'll sum up:
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.
But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.
But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
May 13, 2009 | 4:06 pm
#160
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 3,006
Data miners, direct marketers, and spammers work with much larger programs on much smaller time scales and deem the results successes or failures all the time.
I thought the highlighted sentence was close to the mark because the "massive scale" of the BDO program is insignificant compared to the problem it pretends to solve.
If BDOs have a superhuman "lift" of 10000%, then the program would miss only 120,000 criminals for every 1266 arrests. But your BDO personnel would probably be smart enough to leave and earn their fortunes playing poker.
I thought the highlighted sentence was close to the mark because the "massive scale" of the BDO program is insignificant compared to the problem it pretends to solve.
If BDOs have a superhuman "lift" of 10000%, then the program would miss only 120,000 criminals for every 1266 arrests. But your BDO personnel would probably be smart enough to leave and earn their fortunes playing poker.
May 13, 2009 | 4:26 pm
#161
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May 13, 2009 | 5:41 pm
#162
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I can just see Blogger Bob saying, "They still don't trust us?! Inconceivable!" Funding (which means continued existence and, if you're lucky, growth) is the goal, as it is for every gov't agency. PR is the means to achieve that goal.
May 13, 2009 | 5:49 pm
#163
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 576
Leading junk science guru in Time magazine. Does it mention that he is one of the founders of the BDO program? http://psych.ucsf.edu/news_ektid3172.aspx
May 13, 2009 | 5:50 pm
#164
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 3,004
May 13, 2009 | 6:38 pm
#165
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 72,129
They do indeed have a goal - to make sure Congress and the public never find out how ineffective they are, and to maintain a false sense of their necessity, so that they can keep their jobs forever.