bzcat

No surprise on the premium economy and business loads. I think we predicted this. ONT is a low yield O&D VFR market and no nature business travel demand or connection traffic.

But Y cabin only getting 50% says a lot. And if I recall, this includes the "forced transfer" of people already booked on CI5/6 ex-LAX so the true booking rate is probably below that.

Totally agree this should have been A350 route and starting with 3x weekly.

brabb12

You think they would try to change first before pulling the plug?

coolfish1103

Well do note that this is just rumor, so no creditable sources.

As for March 2018 statistics that CAA distributed, the % is not the same as what's claimed by the person who posted the rumor (substantially higher).

However, 76.7% is not a very good result consider...

1. Opening sales.
2. Many CI 6/5 bookings became CI 24/3.
3. One of CI's LAX flights disappeared.

I would be surprised if they pull the plug immediately. That's very bad for the politicians.

hayzel7773

Would the 30% and 50% numbers be the bookings? Considering many people were forced over from CI5/6, the 76.7 could be an artificially inflated number.

bzcat

1 month is also too early to draw any firm conclusions... But it is concerning.

If the load factor is still this low by mid summer, I think the experiment will be over. Think about the market share and cargo revenue being lost on TPE-LAX...

rasheed

I agree with others that there is no need to make this flight daily. I am pretty sure ONT will charge nothing for them to keep the plane on the ground for a long time if needed (extra hours).

So, JetBlue is coming back to ONT. It likely will also be in T2. Now, there would need to be some timing adjustments, but I don't know if anything can be done there to co-market the TPE route.

Rasheed

coolfish1103

I remember JetBlue is flying JFK so there is no need to market together as CAL already flies JFK.

Changing just the inbound is also do able, but that's also a problem. Most people don't want to take a day off to pick up the family. If the flight arrives at evenings then this is pretty much solved. The only reason why there is an afternoon flight is for the transit passengers that go beyond LAX. Hence why there is always more CI 6 than CI 5 (with CI 9 being here and there) and the price can be dictated on ex-TPE with CI 6 a lot more often than ex-LAX with CI 5.

26volt

Do you see CI changing their scheduling to solve their problem with the route or will they just pull the plug?

bzcat

No one knows for sure what was in the subsidy agreement between CI and ONT (maybe someone in the local press can file a freedom of information request...?) so hard to say what CI can and cannot do about the flight schedule.

But right from the beginning, several of us pointed out that moving the daytime flight from LAX to ONT didn't make any sense because the daytime flight was aimed primarily at beyond LAX transit traffic. ONT offered no beyond transit capability and was 100% aimed at LA and TPE area O&D, and the O&D fliers overwhelmingly prefer the late night departures.

So not sure what CI was thinking or whether it was dictated by the ONT subsidy but they sure didn't pick the right flight time.

26volt

It's a pity that ONT is having problems with this flight.

I remember reading a local press article were they mentioned CI did a 'survey' regarding a possible ONT-TPE flight, and from their concluded there was demand for it. Though, now its floundering. It all goes to show either they never did the 'survey' or did it, though never asked what exact demographic desired this flight, and at what time it should leave to properly set up the route.

Someone truly screwed the pooch since from what I've seen on CI's website and on Expert Flyer, the plane is somewhat full three out of the seven days while in LAX its full.

ONT gave them a one year subsidy, and I hope not restrictive, so CI (if they're able to) could swap the flight to night time because from what I noticed after May 15, that 77W is mostly empty throughout the summer.

It would behoove ONT management to do something or end up with an egg on their face when CI leaves since having these type of flights were one of the reasons they fought to leave LAWA.

The only reason I could see ONT restricting them to daytime because of UPS late night departures after 1am, Though that's highly improbable since before AM pulled out from ONT, their departures to GDL were at 1 or 1:30am, CI could take over that slot if they moved to late night.

Let's see if CI does another 'survey' to see why is the route failing and have the transits tell them...'hey we need an airport with connections' and the O & D people tell them 'move it to night we'll take the flight' though I won't hold my breath.

Talk about a mess ONT and CI have in their hands. I hope both parties are able to course correct.

coolfish1103

If this is all politics and CI is just opening the route for the sake of politicians then I see this route ending sooner or later with no schedule adjustments. The best timing to head back to LAX would be Winter 2018 cause they would lose their time slot for CI 6 and 5 after 6 months of no operations (I believe that's the timing). If it goes this way it simply means CI has no interests in this route, but was forced to start.

If CI really is interested in this route, they will have to downsize the operations and move the time of the flight to late night departures. It does not even need to be a departure past midnight, just 23:xx is fine. Simply copy the flight time for CI 8 and 7 with a lesser frequency and work ONT and LAX together. If the passenger wants to head back to LA but ONT is not available, sell them the LAX flight as return. What needs to be done on the marketing page would be just a slight cheaper fare for CI 23 (ex-LAX) and CI 24 (ex-TPE) to get the passengers to fly on one leg. Another way to fix this would be to downsize it to 359 but I am unsure if they can get a plane out to fly. It appears all frequencies are used on Europe and Oceania... even SIN has been reverted back to 333. In this case they can also revive CI 6/5 and compliment the schedule together, something like:

CI 6/5 1/3/4/7
CI 8/7 Daily
CI 24/23 2/5/6

or a bit extreme:

CI 6 Daily
CI 5 2/5/6
CI 9 1/3/4/7
CI 8/7 Daily
CI 24/23 2/5/6

26volt

Good points. I would also add, if CI is interested in salvaging the route, they could rework their website. When a prospective flyer selects LAX to TPE, then go into the flights/fare selection, have the option of either departing from LAX or ONT with the recommendations you mentioned. I think that would attract more people to the flight than how it is now. Like I've mentioned before, that plane is mostly empty after May 15. We might find out soon if they course correct or just leave ONT.

bzcat

Edit: just want to be clear that I'm not arguing with you coolfish... just trying to explain a possible rationale why CI choose the current schedule instead something that makes more sense

This kind of schedule exposes the fundamental truth... CI would do just fine operating out of LAX only and the ONT flight is superfluous. That's not the kind of message ONT wants people to draw.

ONT flight doesn't seem to improve load (no new customers, just people shifting from LAX), and we know the yield is worst than LAX. So why bother sending 3 flights to ONT a week when CI can simplify operation with just 2 daily ex-LAX?

No amount of schedule tweeking at ONT will make sense if it is not making more money, either from new customers lifting load factors, or people paying a premium to use ONT and driving up yield.

Fundamentally, the idea that ONT is an untapped intentional long haul destination only makes sense if you believe in the magic beans theory that there are people unwilling to make the trek to LAX to go overseas. If an airline already has operation at LAX, then ONT has to offer something more to the airline to make sense - either new customers or more profit margin.

The subsidy helps with the profit margin but it's not a long term solution for ONT. Like it or not, ONT is in the same long haul air travel market as LAX and it's hard to see how that can be changed. The only way this status quo can change is if LAX somehow becomes slot restricted. Cities with multiple long haul airports are usually so because of slots restrictions like JFK, LHR or HND which results in some airlines having to operate out of EWR, LGW or NRT... This scenario seems unlikely given the runway capacity at LAX is far above terminal capacity and we have perfect weather. Air traffic at LAX probably have to triple before slots become restricted enough to impact schedule decisions that make ONT more attractive.

tris06

Lack of A350's may be only an issue for the next 2 weeks As the 13th A350 will be delivered this month. However it is a good 3/4 months from now before the 14th and currently final ordered A350 is delivered.

coolfish1103

That's why a forum existed, no lol?

CI is fine at LAX, their only struggles comes in the afternoon flight where they could not capture enough market to carry the passengers back on CI 5 (hence the endless promos of 50-100 USD off for ex-LAX or timing it to CI 9 as late night flight).

The problem with the current ONT flight is not just that it doesn't improve load, it actually reduces load, that's why I mentioned the possibilities of keeping CI 6/5 to daily and add the 3 weekly ONT flight. ONT has the potential of getting flights, but it has to be at the right time frame and operate at lower frequency to start before turning it into a daily flight with no flights even at 50% loading.

In order to have ONT make sense, it has to be an evening flight. It will be able to capture all connecting traffic at LAX where the VIPs traveling to SEA will opt for this flight cause it's more convenient and cheaper, and the current TPE bound passengers will come over cause the timing is the same, but offers tad a better price (and that's where the subsidy should be used).

The magic bean is not those who don't travel, but to capture markets that other airlines current have (whether direct like EVA, or transfer pax that CX and other carriers have). By operating at ONT, it will give those passengers an alternative to LAX, but it has to be at the right hours. Late night flight will allow that to happen cause people who travel and give rides to families will not need to take a day (or half day) off.

Personally I don't think the subsidy helps a ton with the current loading factor. I don't see LAX becoming slot restricted.