Coronavirus in Sweden
Jul 9, 2020, 2:28 am
#721
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The Swedish summer homes market seems to be the strongest part of the Swedish housing market in recent months even as foreign buyers are way less relevant than usual. Apparently people in Sweden aren’t willing to sell their summer homes when they want to use themselves and can’t leave the country as much as usual; and domestic demand for the ones that do come on the market is higher.
The NYT has some interesting stuff about Sweden’s coronavirus approach not having gained Sweden much of anything this year other than much higher per capita death figures for this virus. More death and nearly equal economic damage as it’s neighbors
https://news.yahoo.com/sweden-become...SL8nt614BdGJyi
The article nails it with the mention that the Swedish manufacturing sector was going to get predictably hammered by the virus situation, export-oriented or not. Why? Because supply chains are not purely local and Swedish manufacturing has a very high import input dependency.
Speaking of cars, demand to drive in personal cars is positively impacted by people substituting out of mass transit use and into driving themselves. Personal car gas consumption figures can be fascinating indicators. And given what I’m seeing for for some major economies, I wouldn’t be surprised if Norway ends the year with outperforming Sweden during this year of pandemic even more than indicated in the article.
I was told that there seems to be more multi-year house-leasing going on in Western Malmo and Vellinge than usual. No reliable way to confirm that, but there are some people who are definitely doing what you are suggesting.
The NYT has some interesting stuff about Sweden’s coronavirus approach not having gained Sweden much of anything this year other than much higher per capita death figures for this virus. More death and nearly equal economic damage as it’s neighbors
Originally Posted by NYT
....... But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40% more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
......
Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5% this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3%. The unemployment rate jumped to 9% in May from 7.1% in March. ...... This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1% this year and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6% in May from 4.1% in March.
......Norway’s central bank predicts that its mainland economy — excluding the turbulent oil and gas sector — will contract by 3.9% this year. That amounts to a marked improvement over the 5.5% decline expected in the midst of the lockdown.
......
Researchers at the University of Copenhagen gained access to credit data from Danske Bank, one of the largest in Scandinavia. They studied spending patterns from mid-March, when Denmark put the clamps on the economy, to early April. The pandemic prompted Danes to reduce their spending 29% in that period, the study concluded. During the same weeks, consumers in Sweden — where freedom reigned — reduced their spending 25%. Strikingly, older people — those over 70 — reduced their spending more in Sweden than in Denmark, perhaps concerned that the business-as-usual circumstances made going out especially risky.
......
Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5% this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3%. The unemployment rate jumped to 9% in May from 7.1% in March. ...... This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1% this year and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6% in May from 4.1% in March.
......Norway’s central bank predicts that its mainland economy — excluding the turbulent oil and gas sector — will contract by 3.9% this year. That amounts to a marked improvement over the 5.5% decline expected in the midst of the lockdown.
......
Researchers at the University of Copenhagen gained access to credit data from Danske Bank, one of the largest in Scandinavia. They studied spending patterns from mid-March, when Denmark put the clamps on the economy, to early April. The pandemic prompted Danes to reduce their spending 29% in that period, the study concluded. During the same weeks, consumers in Sweden — where freedom reigned — reduced their spending 25%. Strikingly, older people — those over 70 — reduced their spending more in Sweden than in Denmark, perhaps concerned that the business-as-usual circumstances made going out especially risky.
The article nails it with the mention that the Swedish manufacturing sector was going to get predictably hammered by the virus situation, export-oriented or not. Why? Because supply chains are not purely local and Swedish manufacturing has a very high import input dependency.
Speaking of cars, demand to drive in personal cars is positively impacted by people substituting out of mass transit use and into driving themselves. Personal car gas consumption figures can be fascinating indicators. And given what I’m seeing for for some major economies, I wouldn’t be surprised if Norway ends the year with outperforming Sweden during this year of pandemic even more than indicated in the article.
I think there's still way too little supply to have negative effect on house prices. Unless those 9M villa owners want to move away from Malmo, it might be smarter to keep their houses since the property tax is cap at a certain level. If they are desperate for $ they can always rent out their villa and move somewhere cheaper or rent a room or their basement out.
It's certainly cheaper to look at area around Burlov/Jaegersro but it's not cheap, for the same type of villa in those area you can get 1.5 to 2 villas in my town.
It's certainly cheaper to look at area around Burlov/Jaegersro but it's not cheap, for the same type of villa in those area you can get 1.5 to 2 villas in my town.
Last edited by GUWonder; Jul 9, 2020 at 2:55 am
Jul 9, 2020, 3:07 am
#722
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The Danish economy has a larger share of GDP coming from exports than the Swedish, 53% vs 46%. 44% for Germany.. So it is probably a bit more complex than just being an export economy. Otherwise the Danish economy should be hit harder by the pandemic than Sweden.
I guess Denmark is in a good position with a lot of agricultural exports, where my impression is that Sweden is a greater degree of industrial, and less agricultural. But I have not looked at those statistics.
I guess Denmark is in a good position with a lot of agricultural exports, where my impression is that Sweden is a greater degree of industrial, and less agricultural. But I have not looked at those statistics.
Total exports in 2018 were $162B for Sweden, and $101B for Denmark. Sweden's total exports are 60% higher than Denmark's.
Animal products: Denmark 12.4B, Sweden 4.9B
Chemicals (including medicines): Denmark 19B, Sweden 16.5B
Foodstuffs: Denmark 7.47B, Sweden 4.28B
Vegetable products: Denmark 2.2B, Sweden 0.802B
When it comes to these four necessities, Denmark has a total of $41.07B, while Sweden has $26.482B, or 35% lower than Denmark.
Transportation: Sweden 26.5B, Denmark 4.06B.
So, transportation, which has been the hardest hit sector in the world, Sweden has 553% higher exports than Denmark.
That's why the Swedish economy has taken a hard hit. People have still bought food and medicines coming from Denmark, but there hasn't been any need for Swedish cars.
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/swe
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/dnk/
Jul 9, 2020, 3:10 am
#723
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Share of GDP figures are more important for running a comparison of performance during this pandemic.
Export mixes are different between all countries.
Even with Norway’s export mix, Norway is looking more resilient than Sweden. And that is even as Norway lives on what could have been Swedish oil.
Whatever the excuses, Sweden has much worse per capita death figures for this virus situation than its continental Scandinavian neighbors and did economically no better than these neighbors. All pain, no gain?
Export mixes are different between all countries.
Even with Norway’s export mix, Norway is looking more resilient than Sweden. And that is even as Norway lives on what could have been Swedish oil.
Whatever the excuses, Sweden has much worse per capita death figures for this virus situation than its continental Scandinavian neighbors and did economically no better than these neighbors. All pain, no gain?
Last edited by GUWonder; Jul 9, 2020 at 3:26 am
Jul 9, 2020, 4:16 am
#724
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Share of GDP figures are more important for running a comparison of performance during this pandemic.
Export mixes are different between all countries.
Even with Norways export mix, Norway is looking more resilient than Sweden. And that is even as Norway lives on what could have been Swedish oil.
Whatever the excuses, Sweden has much worse per capita death figures for this virus situation than its continental Scandinavian neighbors and did economically no better than these neighbors. All pain, no gain?
Export mixes are different between all countries.
Even with Norways export mix, Norway is looking more resilient than Sweden. And that is even as Norway lives on what could have been Swedish oil.
Whatever the excuses, Sweden has much worse per capita death figures for this virus situation than its continental Scandinavian neighbors and did economically no better than these neighbors. All pain, no gain?
As for Norway, 62.5% of our exports (18.3% of GDP) are energy related. The second largest group is animal products (fish) with 9.3% of the exports (2.7% of GDP). According to OEC, Norway's exports are only 29.2% of our GDP, meaning that we're significantly less export dependent than Sweden or Denmark.
It has nothing to do with excuses; it's about trying to understand what's going on. You can't just compare death figures and economic figures and expect them to be equal. E.g. one reason why Sweden had lots of deaths in elderly homes is that they don't have a doctor there, while elderly homes in Norway do. What took place in elderly homes this spring in Sweden is actually quite normal for Swedish elderly homes. Whenever the regular flu hits, you'll also see lots of people dying in Swedish elderly homes. It doesn't have anything to do with not imposing a lockdown, but it's because the Swedish health care system is understaffed and underfinances.
Jul 9, 2020, 5:13 am
#725
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The point more and more economists too are getting is that Sweden’s response to the coronavirus situation didn’t result in Sweden performing relatively better than its Scandinavian neighbors but it did result in Sweden running up virus deaths at 6-12 times the rate of Sweden’s neighbors.
The Swedish response didn’t save more lives from the virus than its neighbors; and it also didn’t give Sweden a stronger economy than its neighbors. Talk about losing in both ways at the same time, and losing more while at it. Whatever the excuses used for the apparently worse Swedish outcome during this pandemic period, the outcome is what it is: Sweden’s economy didn’t perform any better than its Scandinavian neighbors while Sweden filled its graveyards and crematoriums at a much worse rate than those neighbors. How can Sweden’s approach be declared a relative success given this outcome? It went into the crisis systematically stressed, and it’s going to come out that way too — even with its continuing attempt to blame the elderly care facilities and care system workers for the failure of the government segregation project to protect anyone.
The Swedish response didn’t save more lives from the virus than its neighbors; and it also didn’t give Sweden a stronger economy than its neighbors. Talk about losing in both ways at the same time, and losing more while at it. Whatever the excuses used for the apparently worse Swedish outcome during this pandemic period, the outcome is what it is: Sweden’s economy didn’t perform any better than its Scandinavian neighbors while Sweden filled its graveyards and crematoriums at a much worse rate than those neighbors. How can Sweden’s approach be declared a relative success given this outcome? It went into the crisis systematically stressed, and it’s going to come out that way too — even with its continuing attempt to blame the elderly care facilities and care system workers for the failure of the government segregation project to protect anyone.
Last edited by GUWonder; Jul 9, 2020 at 5:20 am
Jul 9, 2020, 5:44 am
#726
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It appears that Swedes are very unwelcome in Norway and Denmark. Apparently, being American doesn’t get me much better reception either:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/a...avirus_tourism
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/a...avirus_tourism
Jul 9, 2020, 6:22 am
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Jul 9, 2020, 6:34 am
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I am at least moderately confident that the answers this year are very different than they would have been last year or before. Its not like there was this coronavirus situation during or before the summer of 2019.
Jul 9, 2020, 7:28 am
#729
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The point more and more economists too are getting is that Swedens response to the coronavirus situation didnt result in Sweden performing relatively better than its Scandinavian neighbors but it did result in Sweden running up virus deaths at 6-12 times the rate of Swedens neighbors.
The Swedish response didnt save more lives from the virus than its neighbors; and it also didnt give Sweden a stronger economy than its neighbors. Talk about losing in both ways at the same time, and losing more while at it. Whatever the excuses used for the apparently worse Swedish outcome during this pandemic period, the outcome is what it is: Swedens economy didnt perform any better than its Scandinavian neighbors while Sweden filled its graveyards and crematoriums at a much worse rate than those neighbors. How can Swedens approach be declared a relative success given this outcome? It went into the crisis systematically stressed, and its going to come out that way too even with its continuing attempt to blame the elderly care facilities and care system workers for the failure of the government segregation project to protect anyone.
The Swedish response didnt save more lives from the virus than its neighbors; and it also didnt give Sweden a stronger economy than its neighbors. Talk about losing in both ways at the same time, and losing more while at it. Whatever the excuses used for the apparently worse Swedish outcome during this pandemic period, the outcome is what it is: Swedens economy didnt perform any better than its Scandinavian neighbors while Sweden filled its graveyards and crematoriums at a much worse rate than those neighbors. How can Swedens approach be declared a relative success given this outcome? It went into the crisis systematically stressed, and its going to come out that way too even with its continuing attempt to blame the elderly care facilities and care system workers for the failure of the government segregation project to protect anyone.
It appears that Swedes are very unwelcome in Norway and Denmark. Apparently, being American doesnt get me much better reception either:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/a...avirus_tourism
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/a...avirus_tourism
Burger King feels sorry for Swedes being stuck:
So if you have an expired/almost expired Swedish passport, go there and grab a free burger.
Btw Finns don't want Swedes to get in either: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/k...i-ser-svenskar
Jul 9, 2020, 7:42 am
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You nailed the point. I want to add that Covid-19 in Sweden is a one of the symptoms of a series of problems in Sweden.
EU are not welcome by the US either, it kind of makes sense.
Burger King feels sorry for Swedes being stuck:
https://youtu.be/a6InKbgXSN4
So if you have an expired/almost expired Swedish passport, go there and grab a free burger.
Btw Finns don't want Swedes to get in either: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/k...i-ser-svenskar
EU are not welcome by the US either, it kind of makes sense.
Burger King feels sorry for Swedes being stuck:
https://youtu.be/a6InKbgXSN4
So if you have an expired/almost expired Swedish passport, go there and grab a free burger.
Btw Finns don't want Swedes to get in either: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/k...i-ser-svenskar
Finns are even more hostile toward Swedish tourists at this time than they are to American and Chinese tourists:
Scandinavians are more wary of Swedes…
While Scandinavians are still reluctant to allow in British tourists, they are more preoccupied by Swedish holidaymakers. In Denmark, Norway and Finland, Swedish tourists are the most opposed of all European tourists, at 61%, 73% and 81% respectively. Sweden is unique among developed countries for having not instituted a coronavirus lockdown, and the consequently higher case rates are clearly making its neighbours nervous.
While Scandinavians are still reluctant to allow in British tourists, they are more preoccupied by Swedish holidaymakers. In Denmark, Norway and Finland, Swedish tourists are the most opposed of all European tourists, at 61%, 73% and 81% respectively. Sweden is unique among developed countries for having not instituted a coronavirus lockdown, and the consequently higher case rates are clearly making its neighbours nervous.
78-79% of Finnish respondents are opposed to US and Chinese tourists at this time, but 81% of Finnish respondents are opposed to Swedish tourists at this time.
Jul 9, 2020, 8:07 am
#731
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Which is both funny and sad because I'd say that a large segment of those not doing a cruise in fact are Finns or their descendants, Except for cruises I don't see a whole lot of demand.. At least not outside of Norrbotten.
Jul 9, 2020, 8:11 am
#732
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The point more and more economists too are getting is that Swedens response to the coronavirus situation didnt result in Sweden performing relatively better than its Scandinavian neighbors but it did result in Sweden running up virus deaths at 6-12 times the rate of Swedens neighbors.
The Swedish response didnt save more lives from the virus than its neighbors; and it also didnt give Sweden a stronger economy than its neighbors. Talk about losing in both ways at the same time, and losing more while at it.
The Swedish response didnt save more lives from the virus than its neighbors; and it also didnt give Sweden a stronger economy than its neighbors. Talk about losing in both ways at the same time, and losing more while at it.
- We do not have the final results. As countries open up, we can see new outbreaks in many places.
- This analysis doesn't take into account the differences that you would naturally expect to see when a virus such as SARS-CoV-2 strikes.
- The analysis neither takes into account that Scandinavian economies are very different.
An additional example for point 3 above: Droves of Norwegians ususally cross the Swedish border to buy groceries in Sweden, due to the insanely high prices of meat and dairy products in Norway. When Norway went into lockdown, such shopping basically ceased to exist overnight. That was a huge loss for the Swedish economy, and a huge gain for the Norwegian economy. That Swedish government or FHM could't have done anything to prevent that loss.
If you don't understand such differences as the one I explained right now, you will never understand what has taken place in Scandinavia over the past four months. And that's why simplistic comparisons between the death toll and the job losses are unhelpful.
Jul 9, 2020, 8:20 am
#733
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The so called outbreaks are still below the Swedish numbers. Sweden also knew the health care situation was what it was and they knew what would happen the same moment Volvo closed So I don't see anything you couldn't figure out in March. We were told by various proponents of the Swedish way that this would save the economy. Coming back in July and saying the economical hit was understandable is not helping. That just proves we should have done as all the others.
Jul 9, 2020, 8:32 am
#734
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Thatīs because most Finns do not meet Chinese or American tourist. The tourists mostly go to Lapland or to Helsinki region, where the airport brings them. Swedish tourists the same, but all have an opinion on how the Swedish have handled the COVID19-crisis. It has very little to do with facts, mostly feelings, opinions. Itīs a temporary thing that will go away just as quickly as it arose.
Jul 9, 2020, 8:36 am
#735
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RedChili, I understand the points and dynamic, but I also don’t think it addresses the point that Sweden’s different response better saved neither its economy nor its people’s lives. Maybe you should bring up the “it may have save(d) the children” type of line? I guess we can wait for the next comparative academic test results to see if Swedish kids show better performance than their neighbors’ kids?
Every country has its preexisting conditions, and Sweden’s weren’t good for this circumstance. But that shouldn’t have been news to anyone, and those kind of conditions going into an obvious crisis invite faster and more extensive mitigation measures when you have competent leadership in place or otherwise have meaningful demand for competent leadership. This national predisposition for the “lagom” is a strategic problem, and it’s exposed as being a problem during crises.
Sweden’s response failed to deliver superior economic performance and failed to deliver on saving lives. On what basis would you have us conclude that Denmark and Norway’s responses to the pandemic have done worse for them than Sweden’s response did for Sweden? On the number of lives it has cost, Sweden seems to be a tragic failure. On the economic front, Sweden seems to have just gotten by no better than its continental Scandinavian neighbors.
Speaking of cross-border shopping, Swedes also do some cross-border shopping in Denmark at normal times. And Danes also do some cross-border shopping in Sweden at normal times. Not sure who the border crossings benefitted and disadvantaged in the place where the cross border headcount would be highest.
Amusingly, a big chunk of the people in Sweden who asked me to take those cruises back in the day were Swedish passport users with a Finnish name or had been mates with a Finn taking those ferries.
Are those cruise services operating with a reduced capacity/schedule this summer?
Every country has its preexisting conditions, and Sweden’s weren’t good for this circumstance. But that shouldn’t have been news to anyone, and those kind of conditions going into an obvious crisis invite faster and more extensive mitigation measures when you have competent leadership in place or otherwise have meaningful demand for competent leadership. This national predisposition for the “lagom” is a strategic problem, and it’s exposed as being a problem during crises.
Sweden’s response failed to deliver superior economic performance and failed to deliver on saving lives. On what basis would you have us conclude that Denmark and Norway’s responses to the pandemic have done worse for them than Sweden’s response did for Sweden? On the number of lives it has cost, Sweden seems to be a tragic failure. On the economic front, Sweden seems to have just gotten by no better than its continental Scandinavian neighbors.
Speaking of cross-border shopping, Swedes also do some cross-border shopping in Denmark at normal times. And Danes also do some cross-border shopping in Sweden at normal times. Not sure who the border crossings benefitted and disadvantaged in the place where the cross border headcount would be highest.
Are those cruise services operating with a reduced capacity/schedule this summer?
Last edited by GUWonder; Jul 9, 2020 at 8:54 am