I just attached a (7) night Cat 9 to a stay at Scrub Island. (after a 20 min hold on the plat-now tin-line) . Reservation now shows I have certificates attached, but the TP cert still shows in my unused list. Will it take time to update? I've done this before and thought it updated immediately.

IF Marriott wants to make members whole, they can up-convert the certificate or refund the points. I don't see other options. The cost of up-conversion is just too high: there will be a rush to buy the higher-category certificates and the few high-end hotels will be quickly booked with these certificates (and frankly, they're the only ones worth staying 7 nights straight). Refunding the points with a hard expiration date, on the other hand, would be more straightforward. Since these points would expire, there won't a rush to accumulate these points.

I am not sure why you think a small up-tick in the replacement point-based certs is such a high cost to Marriott? Also, its not the members fault they are implementing this new "point-based" chart with high and low season where all the categories supposedly don't fit any of the current SPG or Marriott categories. Seems like a good way to do a stealth devaluation of both Programs.

I'd agree with this, mainly because I think people are overestimating how many of these 5 and 7 night certs are floating around. I think the vast majority of MR members don't even know that the travel packages exist.

Take my current cat-9 certificate example above. It's currently good for 7 nights at a 45K/night hotel. If Marriott up-converts it, it would have to be at least good for a new cat-6 hotel in any season at 60K/night. With an "up to 60K" certificate, you can also book a cat-7 hotel outside of the peak season. Wouldn't there be a rush to buy these certificates?

Only if they clarify the policy before August 1. The uncertainty is probably enough to discourage a rash of redemptions.

They would have to before the programs merge. Otherwise, how would you use the current certificate post August 1?

So you are concerned about the high cost to Marriott when they just increased cat 9 hotels redemptions currently at 45,000 points to 60,000 points starting in 2019. What about the high cost to all MR members and SPG members under the guise of "enhancing" the SPG and MR programs?

Marriott will surely like to minimize its cost. It won't adopt the high cost strategy if a lower cost alternative exists. We're all speculating what Marriott would do with respect to these certificates, and positioning ourselves accordingly.

Ok two very good points. So what is the best plan for your current cat 9? Book 7 nights and attach the cert I am guessing?

'It is not instant online but you should receive a new confirmation email that shows the new status.

Check again tomorrow or day after tomorrow - the cert would disappear by then.

You can use (attach) legacy program certificates at the legacy program rates until the new program kicks in. Those reservations/certificates will be valid, even once the new program takes effect.

The question is what will happen to unattached certificates, or certificates that are attached to reservations that are changed or canceled after the new program goes into effect. There is no reason Marriott cannot wait to announce its policy for these certificates until that time. In fact, if they are planning to be at all generous, it is probably wise for them to hold off (to avoid the "run on the bank" that would occur if members knew with certainty that unattached certificates would be converted to something, certificates or just points, that was more valuable than what they had spent on those certificates).

The above does not mean that I think Marriott will be generous, only that if they are planning to be, they are wise to wait to make this announcement until it is no longer possible to redeem Travel Packages at the legacy rate.

My speculation? Attached certs when the reservations are canceled, would be converted to equivalent category cert, round up.

Floater certs, you take your risk to gamble.

Given the Lurker's latest words, (and I suggest everyone who is concerned about the conversion to read his first post on this, with a list of FAQ questions without the answers, with bold face), and his repeated comment at the end in the 2 posts (I think it is 1807 and 1810 in the mega thread.), that the treatments would be different towards the Attached (i.e. used) certs (when the reservation is canceled) and the Floater (i.e. Unused) certs once the programs merge.

Call to cancel just like in the past, and get your cert back. Can't people see that, Lurker is telling us that DONT have Floater certs if you want to maximize the value. He does not say once a hotel is booked (i.e. a cert is attached) things are set in stone unchangeable. He does say if you want to maximize the value, redeem now and attach the cert.

Personally I would find a hotel that no matter what happens, it is fine for me to stick with it. That, means I would make sure to find a hotel that does not go down in category after Aug 1st so to avoid complication.

I don't see how Marriott could wait until August to announce what happens to the existing legacy certificates. What if the certificate holder wants to attach it to a new reservation on August 1 (or whatever date on which the new categories take effect)?