27 Jan : New points devaluation ?
Jan 28, 2025 | 10:50 am
#46
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 4,323
Yes, because I've been monitoring the properties for the past week and came to post my complaints on FT yesterday when I read the headlines about the devaluations.
Jan 28, 2025 | 10:56 am
#47
Join Date: Jan 2023
Location: CGK/SGN
Programs: SIA KF (* Alliance) Gold; VNA Lotusmiles Platinum (STE+); Marriott Platinum, LTG; IHG Platinum
Posts: 562
Jan 28, 2025 | 11:39 am
#48
Join Date: Mar 2017
Programs: UA GS, Hyatt LT G, Marriott LT T
Posts: 401
I was monitoring my usual family ski trip next year during the past two week. I booked 7-night using the pricing exactly same as last year. But I need one more night. They supposed to release 8 days ago. It is a Japanese hotel they always did that exact time every week. But they did skip a week. This Monday exactly Jan 27, they released two week inventory but all price increased 10%. I used more points to booked 8th day. I was lucky since I get the cheaper rate for the first 7-night. It is systemwide devaluation for good value redemption.
Jan 28, 2025 | 12:52 pm
#50
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NYC (LGA, JFK), CT
Programs: Delta Platinum, American Gold, JetBlue Mosaic 4, Marriott Platinum, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond,
Posts: 5,116
As is usual with these "devaluations," it is a mixed bag. I usually check a few Hawaii and Florida redemptions (because I assume those are always heavily redeemed by Americans with a ton of points) as a proxy, and I am not seeing dramatic increase in average, maybe 5K or 10K points on 100K+ redemptions. It does seem like some of the more outlier value redemptions have gone up more.
What does seem to be happening, IMO, is that redemption values on average have gone up more than room rates in the past year or so. A lot of this is catch up, as room rates skyrocketed from 2021-2023 and sometimes points values didn't.
What does seem to be happening, IMO, is that redemption values on average have gone up more than room rates in the past year or so. A lot of this is catch up, as room rates skyrocketed from 2021-2023 and sometimes points values didn't.
Jan 28, 2025 | 2:41 pm
#52
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2015
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, Marriott LTP, BAEC Gold, LH Sen, AF Plat
Posts: 210
I remembered that about a year and a half ago Sealthedealtravels figured out how to see the hidden Marriott award categories. It seems like they have updated their post now (but forgot to update the date of the publication).
Jan 28, 2025 | 6:19 pm
#53
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: MB Titanium, HH Gold, IHG Diamond Amb, UA Silver, AC 25K
Posts: 214
Hi it's me, author for Seal the Deal Travels!
Yes, I updated the chart to the current 2025 pricing and still working on the updates to the post and possibly be done in a few days.
Some key takeaways:
Some neutral/less disappointing news:
Yes, I updated the chart to the current 2025 pricing and still working on the updates to the post and possibly be done in a few days.
Some key takeaways:
- Increased caps across all categories
- New Category 17(!!?) introduced for North Island Seychelles. It's been labeled as a Category 8 for the past years after the official chart went away, but I also found zero award availability in the past, and admittedly didn't look into it much. Though, there's no Category 13-16 properties that I can find. Highest Category found from last year was 12, with Dorado Beach and Nujuma, RC Reserve.
- Increases are more egregious on the top-end properties
- JW Marriott Masai Mara no longer follows a typical Category 9 property pricing despite being a Cat 9. It used to just be RC/StR Maldives that were special cases. It might be updated to a new Category soon, but also might take a while like North Island Seychelles.
Some neutral/less disappointing news:
- Zadun/Dorado Beach pricing haven't changed
- FNC's still maintain similar level of effectiveness, but you might need a little bit more points to topup compared to before.
Jan 28, 2025 | 7:31 pm
#54
Join Date: May 2006
Location: KSNA/KLAX
Programs: IML GOLD, Bonvoy LTPE, WOH Globalist, AAEXPLT
Posts: 706
A few properties on my upcoming southeast asia places got devalued like crazy and i ended up booking cash or just going to hyatt. Might not make titanium this year but i could care less since im lifetime platinum, and titanium upgrades in its own have devalued a whole lot.
The dumb executives at marriott validate their own work by destroying their loyalty program... lame move IMO as I have seen $5-10M of annual credit card charges in my circle of friends get switched over to other loyalty programs. Airlines and hotels alike earn $$ selling points to cc companies and many airlines do not make $$ flying... but from selling points to credit card companies.
The dumb executives at marriott validate their own work by destroying their loyalty program... lame move IMO as I have seen $5-10M of annual credit card charges in my circle of friends get switched over to other loyalty programs. Airlines and hotels alike earn $$ selling points to cc companies and many airlines do not make $$ flying... but from selling points to credit card companies.
Jan 28, 2025 | 10:08 pm
#55
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL PM, MR Titanium/LTP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 10,319
But you are correct. At most properties, whatever award price increase that occurred "overnight" is at most incremental. Haven't seen any "lows" completely vanish except maybe Ritz-Carlton Kyoto's 92k and under rates. I'm sure you can still get it for 98k and probably do better if you wait it out and see... it is, after all Q1 '25.
Ok, someone mentioned RC Tokyo, that does seem to have inched up across the board. Tant pis. I'd rather try Mesm next time I'm in Tokyo anyway.
Trying to deduce a system-wide trend here seems an exercise in guesswork and speculation so property-specific, it seems the threads of those hotels that have shot up drastically would be more appropriate avenues for such a discussion.
Ok, someone mentioned RC Tokyo, that does seem to have inched up across the board. Tant pis. I'd rather try Mesm next time I'm in Tokyo anyway.
Trying to deduce a system-wide trend here seems an exercise in guesswork and speculation so property-specific, it seems the threads of those hotels that have shot up drastically would be more appropriate avenues for such a discussion.
So just between those two the 21k I earned last week for my most recent Marriott stay is going to end up just covering the increase which is frustrating
Jan 29, 2025 | 2:44 am
#56
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC SE 100K MM; Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 4,132
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to. There are lots of 'examples' in this thread (usually sample size of 1) of some of the most desirable, in demand properties, that cost more in points now on specific dates. Have the cash prices gone up as well?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost?
Jan 29, 2025 | 3:41 am
#57
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: USA
Programs: MB Ambassador, WOH Globalist, HH Diamond (Aspire), IHG Plat (CC), UA (*G) Gold, AA Plat (OWS)
Posts: 10,224
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to. There are lots of 'examples' in this thread (usually sample size of 1) of some of the most desirable, in demand properties, that cost more in points now on specific dates. Have the cash prices gone up as well?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost?
Let us not forget that category changes used to happen yearly around this time, and Hyatt is due for a category change in the next month or two.
Jan 29, 2025 | 4:44 am
#58
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: MD/DC
Programs: Hilton Diamond, IHG Platinum, Marriott Titanium and LTP, TK Gold
Posts: 1,579
While I see increases in many of the redemptions I track, I did have one fall back couple of thousands points to a level lower than I have seen for that hotel in many many months (and I track at least one a day for all my upcoming redemptions with possibility to get some points back). I think it is a combination of increase of maximal rate for a hotel compounded with demand. The outsized value hotels necessarily increase demand for redemptions nights which under the Marriott system creates increase in redemptions rates. The same logic will dictate that reduced demand will reduce the pricing (but I doubt that would actually happen).
Jan 29, 2025 | 5:16 am
#59
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2015
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, Marriott LTP, BAEC Gold, LH Sen, AF Plat
Posts: 210
Is it really an across the board, unannounced, devaluation or is it that the dynamic pricing model is following the cash price trend as it would be expected to. There are lots of 'examples' in this thread (usually sample size of 1) of some of the most desirable, in demand properties, that cost more in points now on specific dates. Have the cash prices gone up as well?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost?
Just curious as to how deep the analysis has gone by anyone across brands or geographies or is this just a case of someone kicking over the devaluation can because a particular redemption they were looking at and should have booked has now gone up in points cost?
Jan 29, 2025 | 5:22 am
#60
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: NYC/LA
Programs: DL DM, UA Silver, Marriott Titanium/LTP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 9,813
After the introduction of dynamic pricing, Bonvoy points are generally worth between $0.006 and $0.008 compared to cash rates, inclusive of taxes that would be paid on the cash rate. Properties with redemptions providing outsized value compared to that (and which another poster probably correctly pointed out, become popular for redemptions) will thus become targets for award rate increases.