While I see increases in many of the redemptions I track, I did have one fall back couple of thousands points to a level lower than I have seen for that hotel in many many months (and I track at least one a day for all my upcoming redemptions with possibility to get some points back). I think it is a combination of increase of maximal rate for a hotel compounded with demand. The outsized value hotels necessarily increase demand for redemptions nights which under the Marriott system creates increase in redemptions rates. The same logic will dictate that reduced demand will reduce the pricing (but I doubt that would actually happen).