Mar 17, 2014, 3:08 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
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FlyerTalk members come from all walks of life and all parts of the world. We are as diverse in our makeup as we are alike in our passion for frequent flyer programs. Because we all bring a unique perspective to the forum, our collective experience is broadened, and we gain new insights.
Our diversity demands that we respect each other. Due to the inherent constraints of the Internet, humor, sarcasm, language and slang can be easily misinterpreted - especially when crossing cultural boundaries.
When posting a message, pay extra care to how it might be interpreted. And when you come across a post that offends you, read it with an eye toward giving the poster the benefit of the doubt.
If you have an issue with a post, please contact the member privately or contact a moderator (click on the
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In order to a) keep the original thread focused on confirmed news and known facts, and b) allow folks a place to discuss their ideas about what might have happened, the MH370 moderators and Community Director have decided to open this thread.
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4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously, information that has been posted in the News thread wiki or FAQ, may be deleted. E.g. the aircraft was vaporized.
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MH370 Discussion and Speculation Thread
Mar 17, 2014, 7:40 am
#61
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: BNE AUS.
Programs: Skywards Gold & Others
Posts: 46
It was in the "World Exclusive" by New Straits Times, a Malaysian English daily. Had a huge front page headline about it.
It is worth noting that NST is wholly owned by UMNO, the party that had led the Malaysian government for 57 years. It is therefore to some extent the English language mouthpiece of the government and it is heavily edited/censored to suit the ruling party's agenda.
Having said that, if they really did get sources from inside Malaysian military, the 5000 feet figure might be true. Worth noting also that on the second day itself we had reports of people in Kota Bharu seeing a large plane flying very low so that adds credence to this.
http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general...radar-1.516965
It is worth noting that NST is wholly owned by UMNO, the party that had led the Malaysian government for 57 years. It is therefore to some extent the English language mouthpiece of the government and it is heavily edited/censored to suit the ruling party's agenda.
Having said that, if they really did get sources from inside Malaysian military, the 5000 feet figure might be true. Worth noting also that on the second day itself we had reports of people in Kota Bharu seeing a large plane flying very low so that adds credence to this.
http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general...radar-1.516965
If they did get as low as 5,000ft, I wonder why that happened? If it was a failing plane, we could expect wreckage to be possibly nearby (assuming the plane was going down) but if it was intentional, I wonder what purpose it would serve?
Mar 17, 2014, 7:41 am
#62
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 155
Mar 17, 2014, 7:45 am
#63
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 81
This is the tactic the two helicopters involved in the OBL raid used to get into Pakistani territory undetected.
However, it must be said the B777 is a HUGE jet and is not made for these kinds of purposes. Plus, the B777 has no ground radar to scope the ground ahead and calculate the terrain. Very dangerous. And some claim this is implausible for an aircraft this size.
Mar 17, 2014, 7:49 am
#64
Join Date: Jan 2014
Programs: AC 35K, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 232
Well, it does have EGPWS and can map terrain on the moving map, but I would doubt it would be that helpful if flying that low and fast through mountains.
Mar 17, 2014, 7:51 am
#65
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: BNE AUS.
Programs: Skywards Gold & Others
Posts: 46
"Terrain hugging", a famous military tactic to avoid radar. The closer you fly to the ground, the more likely radar will miss you.
This is the tactic the two helicopters involved in the OBL raid used to get into Pakistani territory undetected.
However, it must be said the B777 is a HUGE jet and is not made for these kinds of purposes. Plus, the B777 has no ground radar to scope the ground ahead and calculate the terrain. Very dangerous. And some claim this is implausible for an aircraft this size.
This is the tactic the two helicopters involved in the OBL raid used to get into Pakistani territory undetected.
However, it must be said the B777 is a HUGE jet and is not made for these kinds of purposes. Plus, the B777 has no ground radar to scope the ground ahead and calculate the terrain. Very dangerous. And some claim this is implausible for an aircraft this size.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:06 am
#66
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: SIN
Programs: SQ, UA, Delta, BMI(RIP), Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Diamond (Thanks Amex) Hyatt Discov
Posts: 1,942
Kazaks say we would have detected the a/c with our radars, but even if we did not, other countries would have told us !!!!!
"Even hypothetically thinking, before reaching Kazakhstan's territory this plane would have had to fly over other countries along its route, where the flight zone is also closely monitored, so we would have received information from these countries," he added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2701720140317
At the same time, Pakistan and Afghanistan being asked to assist
Last night sources in Kuala Lumpur assisting with the investigation told The Independent that full diplomatic permissions were being sought in order to rule out the theory that the plane could have flown to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan that are not under government control.
Large areas of the southern half of Afghanistan are ruled by the Afghan Taliban, while some areas of north-west Pakistan, adjacent to or near to the Afghan border, are controlled by the Pakistani Taliban.
A spokesman for Malaysian Airlines said: “These are matters for the jurisdiction of those regions and Malaysia’s armed forces and department of civil aviation. In regard to Pakistan and Afghanistan, we cannot explore those theories without permission. We hope to have that soon.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-9197375.html
"Even hypothetically thinking, before reaching Kazakhstan's territory this plane would have had to fly over other countries along its route, where the flight zone is also closely monitored, so we would have received information from these countries," he added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A2701720140317
At the same time, Pakistan and Afghanistan being asked to assist
Last night sources in Kuala Lumpur assisting with the investigation told The Independent that full diplomatic permissions were being sought in order to rule out the theory that the plane could have flown to areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan that are not under government control.
Large areas of the southern half of Afghanistan are ruled by the Afghan Taliban, while some areas of north-west Pakistan, adjacent to or near to the Afghan border, are controlled by the Pakistani Taliban.
A spokesman for Malaysian Airlines said: “These are matters for the jurisdiction of those regions and Malaysia’s armed forces and department of civil aviation. In regard to Pakistan and Afghanistan, we cannot explore those theories without permission. We hope to have that soon.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-9197375.html
Mar 17, 2014, 8:07 am
#67
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: BOS/MHT/PVD/BDL
Programs: Belong to Many but No Longer Loyal to Any
Posts: 880
I just don't think we have anything definitive enough to rule out intentional or non-intentional causes at this point.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:08 am
#68
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: HPN
Programs: not anymore! I'm FREE!
Posts: 3,459
If we assume the drastic changes in altitude are correct, and the evasive erratic flying that is being reported, I don't understand how the last ping could have been from the plane while it was in flight. Scheduled flight time was about 5.5 -6hrs. Total fuel put on board is based on the flight plan, which includes things like distance to destination, alternate airports, reserve fuel, winds, and planned flight altitude.
To say that the plane made all these fuel burning maneuvers, and was still flying at the 7hr mark, doesn't seem to add up. Airlines don't just carry extra fuel unless there are very rare circumstances. If the pings are legit, which they appear to be, then wouldn't the plane have to be on the ground at that point?
To say that the plane made all these fuel burning maneuvers, and was still flying at the 7hr mark, doesn't seem to add up. Airlines don't just carry extra fuel unless there are very rare circumstances. If the pings are legit, which they appear to be, then wouldn't the plane have to be on the ground at that point?
If you assume that most flying was done at a normal altitude, 7-8 hours of flying time is not unreasonable.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:10 am
#69
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: VIE
Programs: SAS EBS / *A Silver, Hilton Diamond, Radisson VIP, IHG Platinum Ambassador
Posts: 3,791
So this leaves us two options:
a) planes has successfully landed somewhere
b) there was more fuel than should have and plane could be almost anywhere
a) planes has successfully landed somewhere
b) there was more fuel than should have and plane could be almost anywhere
Mar 17, 2014, 8:11 am
#70
Join Date: May 2013
Location: MAD
Programs: IB+, BAEC
Posts: 3,106
I made this point as well. If they can confirm "normal" fuel was on the plane, and if the plane was really switching altitudes and flying low, then flying for 7.5 hrs is nigh impossible. 8.11am's transmission would then have meant the plane was sitting perfectly fine on a runway.
I have been trying to stay grounded as possible in my personal speculations, but this has gone from unlikely to absurd to James Bond style outlandish. Anything that is theoretically possible seems to be within the acceptable realm of reality at this point.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:14 am
#71
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 15
Okay, I see the point about the switch of time. But it is pretty hard to explain how it kept transmitting for 7 or so hours from different places if it exploded over the South China Sea at 1:22 local time. The information that it was not flying randomly also seems to be consistent for the last few days, even if one discounts the altitude changes.
Sounds unlikely but maybe a fire in the electrical cabinet down below or some kind of terrible series of events. I don't see how this can be positively ruled out unless there is some other definite information that tells us beyond doubt that the transponder/ACARs disabling/flight-path was "deliberate".
Lots of people thought that AF447 was a result of foul play until the black box proved that it was a series of unlikely and unfortunate events. Remember no radio contact or mayday call was given either.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:18 am
#72
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 21
I can understand why they are holding back some info, ostensibly to not give it to the hijackers. However, ostensibly if the hijacker(s) are still alive, at this point they already know what's in the cargo hold. So either there's something in there that Malaysia wants to keep from the public, or it really is full of mangosteens.
If each seat is worth ~$290, that means they are spending $14,500 to ship 6000-8000 pounds of mangosteens, or $1.80-$2.40 per pound. I don't know the going rate for mangosteens in China, but this doesn't make sense to me.
If each seat is worth ~$290, that means they are spending $14,500 to ship 6000-8000 pounds of mangosteens, or $1.80-$2.40 per pound. I don't know the going rate for mangosteens in China, but this doesn't make sense to me.
I had no idea that the rise in price for mangosteens at my neighborhood fruit seller might be connected to this incident.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:19 am
#73
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: SIN
Programs: SQ, UA, Delta, BMI(RIP), Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Diamond (Thanks Amex) Hyatt Discov
Posts: 1,942
Okay, I see the point about the switch of time. But it is pretty hard to explain how it kept transmitting for 7 or so hours from different places if it exploded over the South China Sea at 1:22 local time. The information that it was not flying randomly also seems to be consistent for the last few days, even if one discounts the altitude changes.
Also, the implication upto today was that the pilots were somehow complicit - one or both of them turned ACARS off, then did the verbal handover very casually with KL air control, and soon after turned off the transponder and then off they went on their pre-planned route westwards. That is called into question now with the time change - the possibility of someone forcibly taking over after the pilots had done the "all right, good night" bit with KL ATC cannot be now ruled out as easily.
Mar 17, 2014, 8:19 am
#74
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 561
Stolen passports used previously (implied for other people): "Xie Zhuoling, the head of a firm that recruits foreign performers for nightclubs and hotels, said that employment contracts had been signed in June for Christian Kozel, an Austrian, and Luigi Maraldi, an Italian, to work as dancers in Ningxia, northern China."
In that case as well, transportation was from K.L.. Sounds like a human traffic ring -- probably based out of K.L. -- passports used for travel, then collected and returned for the next use? Quite interesting that they were kept together, but probably further confirmation that the two passengers on MH 370 were illegal migrants rather than involved in the plane's disappearance.
http://www.latimes.com/world/worldno...#ixzz2wEI76zug
In that case as well, transportation was from K.L.. Sounds like a human traffic ring -- probably based out of K.L. -- passports used for travel, then collected and returned for the next use? Quite interesting that they were kept together, but probably further confirmation that the two passengers on MH 370 were illegal migrants rather than involved in the plane's disappearance.
http://www.latimes.com/world/worldno...#ixzz2wEI76zug
Mar 17, 2014, 8:20 am
#75
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 4,396
Saw a post this morning about possibly using SIA 68 to mask its flight. Any credence to it?
http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...ar-using-sia68
http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/po...ar-using-sia68