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MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: 15 - 21 Mar 2014 UTC - ARCHIVE WEEK #2

MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: 15 - 21 Mar 2014 UTC - ARCHIVE WEEK #2

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Old Mar 29, 14, 12:51 pm   -   Wikipost
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This is ARCHIVE WEEK #2 (15 - 21 March UTC) of older posts from the original thread, MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: now Search and Recovery [PLEASE SEE WIKI].

This thread contains a very few posts after midnight UTC, for reasons of post continuity.

THIS THREAD HAS BEEN LOCKED.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 5:03 pm
  #1  
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MH 370 KUL-PEK Missing: 15 - 21 Mar 2014 UTC - ARCHIVE WEEK #2

Originally Posted by NandoDave View Post
This is awful for the families involved. The overwhelming 'statistics' would indicate this aircraft is lost with all hands, but instead of pointing this out, the press are churning out stories as though it is likely the aircraft hasn't crashed...
I mentioned this yesterday. The emotional roller coaster the media is putting these families through is not helping the situation. CNN claims the plane went down and then run a headline next to it say "plane may have landed."

I agree with your assessment of the events in your previous post. It seems the most likely scenario at this point.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 6:11 pm
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The first loss of the jet's transponder, which communicates the jet's position, speed and call sign to air traffic control radar, would require disabling a circuit breaker above and behind an overhead panel. Pilots rarely, if ever, need to access the circuit breakers, which are reserved for maintenance personnel.

Pulling one specific circuit breaker, which is labeled, would render inoperative both of the 777's transponders, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and bolstered by comments from according to aviation industry officials and those who have worked with the 777.

Becoming familiar with the 777's systems requires extensive training for pilots and aircraft mechanics alike, experts said. However, considerable technical data on the airplane is also available online in discussion groups or other websites.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...39653701712312
It was revealed on Channel 5 review that a MA aircraft maintenance mechanics was on this flight too. He was flying to Beijing to do some maintenance from there. I wonder if he was let into the cockpit since the pilots probably knew him.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 6:17 pm
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Originally Posted by flyinbob View Post
I'm wondering why authorities haven't taken an identical jet on the same flight path as MH370, and try to duplicate all the maneuvers and radar echos, following all the theoretical flight paths and turns, as well as the pings from the data. Might give them an idea of how possible all the theories are.
According to some reports, MH370 flew as high as 45,000 feet, well above the service ceiling of a 777. I doubt they would risk a bird on recreating a flight with what may be erroneous data.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:02 pm
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Originally Posted by jv66 View Post
This supposes that as a passenger you know precisely what the route of KUL-PEK is which I doubt anyone does.
That's foolish. Of course people do...

Originally Posted by mbece View Post
Unless I'm flying a route I'm really familiar with, I'm awake and there's day light, I'm sure I wouldn't even notice the plane is going off track. Even if someone notices it with a compass, what would cue you into thinking something odd (ie, not a weather related reroute) is in place?

Originally Posted by TheGolfWidow View Post
I don't know that they'd have to stare out the window, the occasional glance might trigger a concern that they had passed over the sea 3+ hours longer than they typically would have done.
Ding Ding Ding, we have a winner. Anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Asia geography (and sitting on the left side of the plane) would notice that they're seeing water for way too long.

And all this talk of moonless night (true) is irrelevant, land has lights and allows a view of the ground. The lack of city or household lights would be very unnerving.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:02 pm
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Originally Posted by the810 View Post
Middle East, perhaps? That would be within range.
Not within range for the fuel loaded at KUL.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:03 pm
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Originally Posted by SpurMan View Post
Was Somalia in range? They've been hijacking ships for years......
No. At KUL they had fuel for about 7-7.5 hours flying. Having flown north for at least 40 minutes there was not enough fuel to reach any part of Africa.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:09 pm
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I have a question. I know that modern autopilots can follow waypoints. When programming them do you program them point by point or do you program a destination and it works out the most sensible waypoint route? The reason for asking is if a pilot mis-selected the destination when attempting a turnaround, could that explain the new apparent flight path?
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:10 pm
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Originally Posted by gailwynand View Post
Make a southwesterly turn from the last waypoint and you are on a straight-line course to Somalia...

Mogadishu airport is run by peacekeepers but are there any Islamist-operated airstrips that could accommodate a 777?
Irrelevant - the aircraft didn't have enough fuel to fly that far.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:12 pm
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some really good pictures @ boston.com

The big Picture, Boston Photos about MH370
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:25 pm
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Originally Posted by alex_b View Post
I have a question. I know that modern autopilots can follow waypoints. When programming them do you program them point by point or do you program a destination and it works out the most sensible waypoint route? The reason for asking is if a pilot mis-selected the destination when attempting a turnaround, could that explain the new apparent flight path?
this is about the 25th post that has mentioned "programming the autopilot to fly a route" ... as I mentioned a day or so ago, it's been a long time since I was in Boeing Flight Test, but I am pretty sure that the autopilot only has two principal modes (altitude hold and heading hold); the Flight Management System (FMS) (or Flight Management Computer -- FMC) is what's used to enter the waypoints for the route of flight

any experts out there, please feel free to elaborate as necessary
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:28 pm
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Originally Posted by DBCme View Post
"Seismic Event" Close to Missing Jet Path: China Scientists

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/natio...owTwt_BAYBrand

A “seismic event” consistent with an airplane crash has been detected on the sea floor close to where missing Malaysia Airline lost contact with air traffic control on Saturday, Chinese scientists said Friday. The signal detected by two stations in Malaysia noted a small tremor on the floor of the sea at 2:55 a.m. about 95 miles south of Vietnam, the scientists said in a statement posted on the website of the University of Science and Technology of China. "It was a non-seismic zone, therefore judging from the time and location of the event, it might be related to the missing MH370 flight," said the statement. The area where the tremor was detected about 70 miles from where the Boeing 777 was last heard from, and 85 minutes after the jet carrying 239 people lost contact, according to South China Morning Post newspaper.
There are a number of aspects of this story which seem very odd.

The seismographs which recorded a minor tremor are hundreds of miles from the aircraft location - seems too far relative to the impact by an aircraft.

Normally need at least 3 seismographs to locate position. This seems to be based on only 2 seismographs thus cannot rule out the mirror opposite location, which is near faults and therefore a more likely scenario is regular earthquake.

Only detected on 2 seismographs. Surely there are others in the region.

The location is relatively close to where radar and radio contact was lost (70 miles), yet the time was much later (90 minutes although once again could be partly due to time zones). What happened to the aircraft in between times?
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:28 pm
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CNN now says based on NYT and WSJ online articles that the turn to the west and the altitude changes after the transponder was turned off was "deliberate" and likely by a human, and that the aircraft flew for additional 4-5 hours based on satellite pings at a cruising atltitude after 1-2 additional erratic turns before completely disappeared. 2 areas of possible paths were suggested (north towards India, south towards open ocean). Sounds less likely mechanical and more likely deliberate action.

<redacted>

Last edited by JDiver; Mar 14, 14 at 9:02 pm Reason: MH370 was not an 77L / LR
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:32 pm
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Originally Posted by NandoDave View Post
This is awful for the families involved. The overwhelming 'statistics' would indicate this aircraft is lost with all hands, but instead of pointing this out, the press are churning out stories as though it is likely the aircraft hasn't crashed...
I agree. While I supposedly anything is still possible, the reality of landing a 777 on some remote island there is just ridiculous.
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:33 pm
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Originally Posted by jrl767 View Post
this is about the 25th post that has mentioned "programming the autopilot to fly a route" ... as I mentioned a day or so ago, it's been a long time since I was in Boeing Flight Test, but I am pretty sure that the autopilot only has two principal modes (altitude hold and heading hold); the Flight Management System (FMS) (or Flight Management Computer -- FMC) is what's used to enter the waypoints for the route of flight
So does this mean that the plane couldn't have flown the VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX course without a human at the controls?
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Old Mar 14, 14, 7:34 pm
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Originally Posted by Kiwi Flyer View Post
There are a number of aspects of this story which seem very odd.

The seismographs which recorded a minor tremor are hundreds of miles from the aircraft location - seems too far relative to the impact by an aircraft.

Normally need at least 3 seismographs to locate position. This seems to be based on only 2 seismographs thus cannot rule out the mirror opposite location, which is near faults and therefore a more likely scenario is regular earthquake.

Only detected on 2 seismographs. Surely there are others in the region.

The location is relatively close to where radar and radio contact was lost (70 miles), yet the time was much later (90 minutes although once again could be partly due to time zones). What happened to the aircraft in between times?
Does the timing of the seismic event corroborate with the satellite ping on the aircraft that most experts now acknowledged that the aircraft has flown 4-5 additional hours after initial disappearance?
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