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Old Apr 13, 2018, 2:51 pm
  #451  
 
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Originally Posted by moops380
In Y, LOT had plenty of lax seats. While not glamorous, having 3 seats in coach per person isn't exactly roughing it.
Thanks, but unfortunately I was looking for C.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 7:00 am
  #452  
 
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Originally Posted by N1003U
Thanks, but unfortunately I was looking for C.
There is aLOT of business availability on the waw-lax route, but its not released to mileage bargains... Next best would be using ANA points, at least with ana you can get a little creative with routing (and utilize UA/AC and a stopover)
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 7:10 am
  #453  
 
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Originally Posted by yurtripper
How is the WAW-LAX route going to be sustainable if the loads are as light as people say? It's not as if LO regularly pack out their C or PE cabins.
Need to keep using it, or it will go away. From my experience, not everyone has 3 seats alone, just the back econ section partially. Probably overall still 65%+ load. LOT charges a premium for the direct flight as well, so if an econ passenger wasn't using points, they might fly swiss, austrian, LH, etc. and save $150+ on the r/t.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 8:28 am
  #454  
 
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Originally Posted by moops380
Need to keep using it, or it will go away. From my experience, not everyone has 3 seats alone, just the back econ section partially. Probably overall still 65%+ load. LOT charges a premium for the direct flight as well, so if an econ passenger wasn't using points, they might fly swiss, austrian, LH, etc. and save $150+ on the r/t.
Certainly true that LO charges a premium for direct flights. Even though they're aware that their local market is acutely price sensitive they also know that the locals aren't generally fans of positioning for long haul flights. In countries like the UK, positioning ex-EU is almost a matter of routine, considering how extortionate the APD now is.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 8:48 am
  #455  
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Originally Posted by yurtripper
Certainly true that LO charges a premium for direct flights. Even though they're aware that their local market is acutely price sensitive they also know that the locals aren't generally fans of positioning for long haul flights. In countries like the UK, positioning ex-EU is almost a matter of routine, considering how extortionate the APD now is.
I occasionally read A.net and I recall reading the LF for WAW-LAX are much higher than is mentioned here. I believe the FAA publish similar data like the CAA so it’s possible to compile load factors very easily given the frequency and same a/c type.


It’s clear that LOT have decided they can make more money from the footprint of a group of Y seats than they can from W and J and hence they don’t discount the premium cabins as much as the likes of OW, obviously they don’t have the capacity but it’s a revenue strategy nevertheless. For example, KRK-ORD is very busy in Y but very empty in J, what seats that are sold in J are not cheap.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 9:16 am
  #456  
 
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Originally Posted by hugolover


I occasionally read A.net and I recall reading the LF for WAW-LAX are much higher than is mentioned here. I believe the FAA publish similar data like the CAA so it’s possible to compile load factors very easily given the frequency and same a/c type.


It’s clear that LOT have decided they can make more money from the footprint of a group of Y seats than they can from W and J and hence they don’t discount the premium cabins as much as the likes of OW, obviously they don’t have the capacity but it’s a revenue strategy nevertheless. For example, KRK-ORD is very busy in Y but very empty in J, what seats that are sold in J are not cheap.
If that's the case then why can't they make a go of WAW-BKK? Plenty of rock solid Y demand on that route. They used to run a 767 to BKK up to 2000. They've been talking about BKK since 2015 but nothing has ever materialised. There's no issue on the Thai side (as they've had an aviation agreement with Poland since 1975). The Thai transport minister even announced in Feb 2017 that LO had a agreed to operate a *daily* service with one of its Dreamliners (it was published in the Bangkok Post).
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 9:27 am
  #457  
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I don't know, but I do think that there will be fair bit of VFR traffic to/from LAX judging by the number of Polka's I've met who have some links to the West Coast. BKK strikes me as being entirely leisure based and one-sided ex-PL/EU. There are still charters to BKK and surrounding in the winter when LOT don't have anything to do with their aircraft are doing charters.

Americans have money, don't have visa issues like Thais and connections through WAW are very competitively priced.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 9:38 am
  #458  
 
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Originally Posted by hugolover
I don't know, but I do think that there will be fair bit of VFR traffic to/from LAX judging by the number of Polka's I've met who have some links to the West Coast. BKK strikes me as being entirely leisure based and one-sided ex-PL/EU. There are still charters to BKK and surrounding in the winter when LOT don't have anything to do with their aircraft are doing charters.

Americans have money, don't have visa issues like Thais and connections through WAW are very competitively priced.
But your point was that Y demand is enough to keep routes like KRK-ORD and WAW-LAX going, even with zero pax in J or W. So the fact that BKK is leisure based doesn't alter anything, as the routes you mention aren't business oriented either.

Not sure what you mean about the visa issue for Thais either. WAW-BKK is all about sending poor frozen Slavs out to SEA to escape the depredations of winter, not about having large volumes of people from Thailand making trips to Poland.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 10:07 am
  #459  
 
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Originally Posted by moops380
There is aLOT of business availability on the waw-lax route, but its not released to mileage bargains...
It was supposedly part of the mileage bargains a couple weeks back.

Originally Posted by yurtripper
Certainly true that LO charges a premium for direct flights. Even though they're aware that their local market is acutely price sensitive they also know that the locals aren't generally fans of positioning for long haul flights.
Well, the BzP passengers group is still live and well (keeping the RZE/KRK-NYC/ORD flights alive).

Originally Posted by hugolover
I occasionally read A.net and I recall reading the LF for WAW-LAX are much higher than is mentioned here. I believe the FAA publish similar data like the CAA so it’s possible to compile load factors very easily given the frequency and same a/c type.
LAWA does and the numbers weren't that enthusiastic.

Originally Posted by hugolover
It’s clear that LOT have decided they can make more money from the footprint of a group of Y seats than they can from W and J and hence they don’t discount the premium cabins as much as the likes of OW, obviously they don’t have the capacity but it’s a revenue strategy nevertheless. For example, KRK-ORD is very busy in Y but very empty in J, what seats that are sold in J are not cheap.
Perhaps the juice isn't worth the squeeze for them with such small premium cabins. They do have a decent pricing every now and then when connecting from the North or West.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 10:47 am
  #460  
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Originally Posted by yurtripper
But your point was that Y demand is enough to keep routes like KRK-ORD and WAW-LAX going, even with zero pax in J or W. So the fact that BKK is leisure based doesn't alter anything, as the routes you mention aren't business oriented either.

Not sure what you mean about the visa issue for Thais either. WAW-BKK is all about sending poor frozen Slavs out to SEA to escape the depredations of winter, not about having large volumes of people from Thailand making trips to Poland.
But it presumes that by not selling the W and J cabins cheaply that LO are losing money. That remains to be seen and given LO are a state owned company we aren't likely to find that out. Because LO don't sell their short-haul business class flights as cheap as BA does it mean they're losing money? Or that they would rather sell only a couple of seats for some silly amount and fill up all the rest of their seats in Y? They fly much smaller aircraft that their competitors in Europe. LO don't even dump their Business Class seats for Miles because they don't offer any as part of Mileage Bargains offered through M&M or the special deals for the Polish market.

I don't have any special knowledge why LAX is favoured over BKK but I can see a stronger business case for LAX if its a choice of "where do we go? LAX or BKK"? Well, I would choose LAX. Based on the cold weather that suggests that BKK would be seasonal? Whereas LAX at least has the case for year-round. As you know, LO added extra frequencies on that.

It strikes me that WAW-BKK would be frozen Slavs who wanna go to BKK when its cold. (I feel like Poles are really into DPS right now, BKK is not vogue) LAX-WAW at least has demand both sides and for the Cali set its a cheap way to get to many major EU cities. As I said, LO do charters to BKK and the fares are high, I have checked.

Btw, according to a thread on A.net last year WAW-LAX peaked at 84% LF. That seems rather good for a new route.
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Old Apr 14, 2018, 12:02 pm
  #461  
 
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Originally Posted by hugolover
according to a thread on A.net last year WAW-LAX peaked at 84% LF. That seems rather good for a new route.
LFs are not really a good indicator when it comes to a given route being profitable (or not) without indeed knowing the actual yields —and your expertise will no doubt acknowledge that— but the last set of data I saw was all but enthusiastic, I can’t remember whether it was the Polish forum or another source but the numbers weren’t that good.

G
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Old Apr 18, 2018, 8:15 am
  #462  
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Originally Posted by AlicorporateUK


LFs are not really a good indicator when it comes to a given route being profitable (or not) without indeed knowing the actual yields —and your expertise will no doubt acknowledge that— but the last set of data I saw was all but enthusiastic, I can’t remember whether it was the Polish forum or another source but the numbers weren’t that good.

G
On the subject of LAX a friend is traveling there shortly and was complaining theres only a few seats left in Business so her standby will most likely not clear but she did note that its something of a staff shuttle in the back. I know of one guy who is taking his family of four plus 4 friends on one flight. But for 500Zl in Y, 700Zl in W, 900 Zl in J, its a great deal.

"Staff shuttle” comment reminded me of many QR flights out of a number of European stations. Empty a few days out, then suddenly packed full of staff on departure day.
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Old Apr 18, 2018, 8:59 am
  #463  
 
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Originally Posted by hugolover
On the subject of LAX a friend is traveling there shortly and was complaining theres only a few seats left in Business so her standby will most likely not clear but she did note that its something of a staff shuttle in the back. I know of one guy who is taking his family of four plus 4 friends on one flight. But for 500Zl in Y, 700Zl in W, 900 Zl in J, its a great deal
Interesting. LO's J fares to LAX are never cheap (compared to the 'usual suspects') so I'm guessing (just a guess indeed, I'm not really an expert when it comes to airline's revenue management ) the numbers in terms of yields must be good enough for them to sell a seat on the direct flight for 4/5K (GBP - sorry, I always think in Pounds! ) as opposed to the 3K you normally get when booking LH/LX and even OS.

G
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Old Apr 18, 2018, 9:20 am
  #464  
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LO's LAX rates ex Germany are not exactly cheap, but still attractive compared to the rates by the UA/AC/LH mafia.

Code:

	
Code:

	
18APR18**18APR18/LO WAWLAX/NSP;AT/TPM  6002/MPM  7202
          FQNLO/001/002/003/004/005/006/007/008


LN FARE BASIS    OW   PLN  RT   B PEN  DATES/DAYS   AP MIN MAX R
01 COW          12757           C  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R
02 C1RPL        12641           C  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R
03 D1RPL        10841           D  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R
04 CRT                    21522 C  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R
05 DOW          10657           D  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R
06 CRPL                   20767 C  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R
07 ZOW           9757           Z  -     -     -   + 1+ -   -  R
08 Z1RPL         9641           Z  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R
09 DRT                    18022 D  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R
10 DRPL                   17767 D  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R
11 ZRT                    16522 Z  -     -     -   + 1+  + 12M R
12 ZRPL                   15767 Z  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R
13 FSPCA14                15022 F 416+   -     -   +14+  + 12M R
14 FSPCA28                14022 F 416+   -     -   +28+  + 12M R
>                                                 PAGE  2/ 3


 
ROE 0.809166 UP TO 1.00 EUR                                                     
18APR18**18APR18/LO MUCLAX/NSP;AT/TPM  5976/MPM  7171                           
          FQNLO/001/002/003/004/005/006/007/008                                 
                                                                                
                                                                                
LN FARE BASIS    OW   EUR  RT   B PEN  DATES/DAYS   AP MIN MAX R                
01 COW           3191           C  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R                
02 C1RPL         2893           C  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R                
03 CRT                     5416 C  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R                
04 DOW           2591           D  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R                
05 D1RPL         2413           D  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R                
06 CRPL                    4789 C  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R                
07 DRT                     4416 D  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R                
08 ZOW           2111           Z  -     -     -   + 1+ -   -  R                
09 Z1RPL         2053           Z  -     -     -   +  + -   -  R                
10 DRPL                    3989 D  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R                
11 ZRT                     3616 Z  -     -     -   + 1+  + 12M R                
12 ZRPL                    3389 Z  -     -     -   +  + -  12M R                
13 ZSPCA3                  3316 Z 100    -     -   + 3+  + 12M R                
14 ZSPL1J                  2889 Z  +     -     -   +14+  + 12M R                
15 ZSPL3J                  2389 Z  +     -     -   +14+  + 12M R                
>                                                 PAGE  2/ 2
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Old May 2, 2018, 1:28 am
  #465  
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May offers. HT: snow @VFT

Originally Posted by Snow
BUSINESS
Amsterdam: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Billund: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Brüssel: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Chennai/Madras: 55.000 statt 105.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Delhi: 55.000 statt 105.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Glasgow: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Göteborg - Landvetter: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Kopenhagen: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
London - City: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Luxemburg: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.06.2018 bis 31.08.2018)
Luxemburg: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Mumbai/Bombay: 55.000 statt 105.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Oslo: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Stockholm - Arlanda: 25.000 statt 50.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)

ECONOMY
Bangalore / Bengaluru: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Basel: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Beijing / Peking: 40.000 statt 80.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Boston: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Delhi: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Glasgow: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Graz: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Innsbruck: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Klagenfurt: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Linz: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Luxemburg: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.06.2018 bis 31.08.2018)
Mumbai/Bombay: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
New York - JFK: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
New York - Newark: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Osaka - Kansai: 40.000 statt 80.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Reykjavík: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Salzburg: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Seattle: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Turin: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (01.07.2018 bis 15.08.2018)
Warschau: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 30.06.2018)
Washington - Dulles: 30.000 statt 60.000 Meilen (01.09.2018 bis 15.10.2018)
Wien: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (02.05.2018 bis 01.06.2018)
Zürich: 15.000 statt 35.000 Meilen (16.04.2018 bis 15.07.2018)
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