mjm

Some interesting thoughts being shared in the thread.

The concept of housing declining in value though is far too general and does not address the high end of the market (over the past 40 years or so) where the price goes up and up despite the physical asset aging. It is definitely the case that many houses and apartments go down, but not the top part of A grade. Also the ward where it is plays into this so this is addressing the so called 5 central wards, but is more relevant for the 3 central wards.

The traditionally considered average age at which homes are rebuilt is 28 years although lately it seems a lot less. The concept of a older home accruing in value is very foreign here, and the "saikaihatsu" or rebuild whether as a single unit or as that land becoming part of a larger footprint property with an ownership association is much more popular.

Investing in a home here, for the right level of property, will almost assure a positive return.

The problem is most people, no matter how wealthy, will never have access to these properties. Way too much demand, way too little supply.

alan11

Yeah, thats true, if not a PR but you have a visa to live in Japan then aside from the domestic Japanese income, you would only get taxed on income generated abroad only if it is remitted to Japan, but this is just for the first 5 years and without somehow ever establishing full-time residency.

Theoretically one could do what your Singaporean friend does, but it does probably mean registering and unregistering with the municipality of residence every time one comes and goes to Japan (unless each "visit" is less than a couple weeks). Japan has a pretty thorough residency system which essentially does not allow someone to be homeless, particularly a non-citizen visa holder. And while this is technically possible to come and go like that to avoid taxation on foreign income, unless someone had a business owner's visa for a fairly solid business that employs local staff, has assets, and shows stable profitability, then I would wonder how smooth it would be to ever renew their residency visa which was never fully ratified to qualify one as a resident. But if one has that high of a net-worth, there are probably lawyers which can handle it.

So if you are in that league, it'd probably be wiser to not get tax avoidance advice from flyertalk.

joejones

This is a common misconception. Permanent resident status for tax purposes has nothing to do with permanent resident status for immigration purposes... they are two totally different things. The tax status is based solely on whether you have had an address or residence in Japan for 5 years in the last 10.

5khours

I would agree, except...

1. If you bought in the late 80's you're never getting your money back.
2. Yields relative to interest rates are pretty high in Japan. (Still have a hard time understanding this.)
3. The high end of the market is actually pretty illiquid.
4. If you buy a brand new condo, add an extra 5 to 10 years to recoup your investment.

mjm

1. This depends on where and what. Both equally applicable to all properties at the top of the market.
2. High prices are a function more of supply, location (inclusive of the actual property rather than simply map location), and an almost indefinable set of factors I'll call quality for lack of s better term than anything else I believe.
3. In that there is not much volume traded yes, in that the properties do not or cannot sell, no.
4. If you buy a brand new condo at the top of the market the value is locked in due to Point 2 above. A straight timeline does not exist.

LapLap

You got a near instant response from NHK on this matter:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/o...video/2032294/

Japanology Plus - Vacant Homes

williamluk

Actually the whole Akiya (空き家) phenomenon has been around for quite a while. You can get them dirt cheap (even free in some limited cases but those tend to be in REALLY bad shape). The problem is all these properties are in some declining rural area and there is really not much point of buying them and fixing them up (more likely a total rebuilt lol) unless you actually want to live there. Definitely no appreciation potential.

5khours

Definitely not a lot of supply, but also from what I've seen, condos over 250sqm in top buildings can spend a lot of time on the market (exceptions of course.). Curious your thoughts?

mjm

My thoughts on this, and I have to say I have been very surprised to see this be the case for a number of years now, very pleased but also surprised, are that at the very top of the market the demand for 250 sqm, 350 sqm, 450 sqm, and bigger seems to be unlimited.

LapLap

Except the program explains that most of these houses aren’t in declining rural areas as you had supposed and explores a company that has been able to buy and rent them as a viable business.