I'm not at all sure that's a good thing. Sure, it makes borrowing ridiculously cheap because domestic investors accept absurdly low JGB yields; but that's more part of the problem than part of the solution.

In fact, most government borrowing being domestic is one factor which is going to aggravate Japan's macro apocalypse when it does come (does anyone think 'if', not 'when'?)

There are a couple of scenarios that might justify using an "if" rather than a "when". For example, one scenario that might render the debt issue moot would be a nuclear attack from a neighboring country. A generous visit from the tooth fairy to Mr. Kan is another.

Getting back to what Joe Jones said, there are literally 1000's of empty houses and buildings all over Kyushu. You will find, especially out in the stix, that the local governments will will give you houses and paddy/orchard land as long as you keep it in productive order. My neighbor was going to move into one, but her arthritis became too bad!

Japan's population to drop by 1 million each year in coming decades

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46187200.../#.TyagmoGj1c0

Various versions of this same story floating around today based on a new govt report. Reminded me of this old thread.

Japan's population began declining around 2006, and will continue to accelerate in the coming years.

As the labor pool dries up, more and more production moves offshore to wherever the workers are. Domestic consumption continues to decline and the ever shrinking workforce is left supporting an ever rising cohort of pensioners. Hard for me to imagine how Japan's economy can outrun the collapse in population.

One policy, whilst a drop in the ocean, albeit a pretty hefty drop considering the comparatively high percentage of Japanese kids with a non-Japanese parent, would be to allow those children to remain Japanese when they turn 21 and not force them to choose between cultural identities and futures.

Of course, the alternative faced by many countries where the population seems set to outstrip the nations' resources looks even bleaker and has scarier implications for all of us. Japan's "population problem" may be internationally envied much sooner than we'd imagine. The last couple of decades had economists and think tanks proffering Japan as a cautionary story, now there's a huge revision going on and what was once regarded as failure is now being looked into as a strategy worth emulating by the West's recession hit economies

Good idea and actually not a drop. I just saw some statistics on this and I'm not sure if it is correct, but they said that international marriages made up 5 to 7% of the total and the birthrate for international marriages was double the national average. This means 10 to 15% of kids being born now have a non-Japanese parent. This seems really high to me...I'd be interested if anyone had seen the same number.

BTW- Many countries (U.S. included) will ignore the election to select Japanese citizenship so you can actually keep both.

Also - IMHO, the falling birthrates are a result of the lousy economy.

That pretty much sums up the figures I've seen. Not sure if they include children with dual Japanese nationality outside of Japan.. a great deal of these will have Japanese mothers rather than fathers so won't be part of Japanese households according to the archaic way this is categorised in the consulates and embassies.

The unfortunate reality, even if one does live somewhere like the UK which allows dual nationality, is that, currently, Japan only needs to find an example of a Japanese adult using foreign ID documents for that to be grounds to strip them of their Japanese nationality. And with the war against terror and other economic/political motives meaning that more and more information of this sort is being shared amongst governments (a chilling example are the shenanigans the US government is getting up to to ensure data is given up regarding US citizens abroad so that they give accurate information to the IRS and the sort of penalties for corporations and governments that don't comply... a situation that must go both ways) hiding dual nationality is just going to get harder and harder.

Actually the Japanese rules only require that you endeavor to give up your foreign nationality not that you actually give it up. For most countries, an election in Japan to choose Japanese citizenship has no impact on your citizenship in the other country. The U.S. for example won't accept a renunciation of U.S. citizenship if they know the reason for doing so is that it is being forced by the Japanese government. So in fact, it's impossible to do so unless you actually have other reasons for renunciation.

At least for those dual nationals who have Japanese citizenship by parentage (as opposed to those who elected to be naturalized), I'm pretty sure there are no instances where Japan has stripped someone of their Japanese nationality. There is also a proposal before the Diet to loosen the rules. I'm not sure of the status. A similar proposal was submitted in 2008, but nothing came of it.

Also, you may know, but if you were born before 1985, there is no legal requirement to make an explicit election.

Interesting points, and I agree on the mixed marriage/immigration point.

I am a bit curious as to how Japan's population decline could be seen as something for the West or others outside the developing world to emulate. The falling population will lead to falling production, falling GDP/capita, falling tax revenues, and falling social services. The end result of all of these factors will almost certainly be a decline in the standard of living.

China is on a similar trajectory due to the one child policy, and they will not have the luxury of a few generations of savings to cushion the blow, so may end up worse than the Japanese when it is all said and done.

This depends on your nationality. Americans are given a grace period after naturalizing in Japan, because the US government will not allow them to renounce citizenship if it would make them stateless.

In other countries, such as Britain, you CAN expatriate yourself while a naturalization application is pending somewhere else, so the Japanese government requires proof of expatriation as a prereq to naturalization (see here for an example).

That said, even Americans are supposed to expatriate themselves within two years after naturalizing in Japan. What happens if you don't is a separate question.

Here's an op-ed in the NYT that takes a counter view: "The Myth of Japan's Failure" - http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/op...c-success.html

I don't really know enough to critique the argument, but the premise is basically that Japan has been doing a lot better than the US in providing a high quality of life to its residents despite low economic growth. Some facts mentioned:

• Life expectancy is 5 years greater than US and has increased by 4 years from 1989 to 2009.
• Unemployment at 4.2% is half of the US
• Japan maintains a current account surplus, and particularly is much more balanced in trade with China
• Numerous subjective observations, like newness of major Japanese airports vs their outdated American equivalents.
• The difference in the official per-capita GDP growth figures between the US and Japan can be attributed to measurement error.

The rebuttal to that NYT op-ed: http://spikejapan.wordpress.com/2012...onn-fingleton/

Comical. Japan built lots of skyscrapers so it must have been doing great. Joe has already posted the Spike rebuttal which is more comprehensive than that piece deserved.

Everything is fine, they keep building new buildings (at least in Tokyo), while last years models have vacant/non-leased floors. The local population is shopping till they drop (nope). I had a skype last night from a friend who said my former burg had a spotlight on NHK News 9....something about how the future has already come to the place with the 65+ population approaching 40%. The local 70 year olds man the 高菜pickle factories.....

I am always intrigued by references to "Japan" building things. It is as if people believed it were not individual firms making decisions on construction and urban redevelopment.

The Spike piece was interesting, and at times amusing. Heathrow over Narita as an airport for example. :) Pass the pipe.

In general I think the biggest issue is not so much how much supply there is, it is more a function of how quickly pricing adjusts. The market, the residential and commercial sectors anyway, is highly elastic and when buildings are full prices rise. It is manageable, but it takes a bold approach to get past the short term slow down.