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-   -   Is Japan doomed? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/japan/1034113-japan-doomed.html)

travellerK Nov 16, 2010 4:37 am


Originally Posted by acregal (Post 15153198)
The reason that they seem 20 years old is that they were probably built then (during the bubble).

Its not just when they were built, but its also the fact that they haven't been updated since. In the US or Europe, any self respecting company (no matter how old the factory) would be controlling their equipment with fully automated PLC systems, probably monitored by a touch screen in a central control room. In Japan everyone is still using manual switches and dials

FWIW, I took the Shinkansen Osaka to Tokyo last night (15:40-18:40), my car was not more than 40% full and most of the passenger seemed to be foreigners with the railpass (like me).

NickW Nov 16, 2010 5:05 am


Originally Posted by travellerK (Post 15153382)
FWIW, I took the Shinkansen Osaka to Tokyo last night (15:40-18:40), my car was not more than 40% full and most of the passenger seemed to be foreigners with the railpass (like me).

Well it's no surprise all the tourists are lumped together on the few Hikari trains that still run, since you all can't ride the Nozomi with your JR passes... whereas the fare difference for a Japan resident passenger is relatively trivial, and the Nozomi trains are faster.

jib71 Nov 16, 2010 7:27 am


Originally Posted by travellerK (Post 15152950)
My unscientific observation:

Very astute observation IMHO. Most foreign visitors don't get an up-close view of the inefficient, domestic-focused sector of the Japanese economy. I think McKinsey published some figures on the efficiency of this sector a few years ago. IIRC, the report showed that Japan has more food producers than just about any other developed country. As you say, the quality can be outstanding. But efficient it ain't.

jib71 Nov 16, 2010 9:33 am

Time magazine cited the McKinsey report that I was thinking of back in 2002....

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...395413,00.html

joejones Nov 16, 2010 6:32 pm

If Japan turns into a constellation of Wal-Marts, I am packing up and moving to Europe, where they still understand that quality of life does not equal quantity of life.

Q Shoe Guy Nov 16, 2010 6:39 pm


Originally Posted by joejones (Post 15164209)
If Japan turns into a constellation of Wal-Marts, I am packing up and moving to Europe, where they still understand that quality of life does not equal quantity of life.


Just substitute Aeon for Wal-Mart and I guess you will be that much closer to skipping town!

joejones Nov 16, 2010 10:19 pm

A contrarian piece in the NYT:


In China, despite three decades of go-go growth, officials warn that continued growth of 7 to 8 percent is necessary to create enough new jobs to safeguard “social stability.” Japan, by contrast, will continue to enjoy relative domestic tranquility despite yet another year of growth at less than 2 percent. In that sense, at least, Japan’s leaders are the envy of the world.

acregal Nov 16, 2010 11:52 pm


Originally Posted by joejones (Post 15164209)
If Japan turns into a constellation of Wal-Marts, I am packing up and moving to Europe, where they still understand that quality of life does not equal quantity of life.

It's not going to turn into Wal-Marts but some of the things (I haven't seen anything as extreme as that Time article shows, but the parking people) are still around (and totally unnecessary). Places have tons of employees around to help you with trivial things but very few people who can actually help you when you need it.

For example, every gym I've gone to (various branches of Tipness and one Konami branch) has tons of employees around. Not only do they not have a clue how to repair machines (something the people at my gym in the US could do), their fitness advice is generally terrible (unless you pay one of the trainers). They would show people how to use weights, the wrong way. And the gyms weren't understaffed (imagine the typical number of employees in a gym in the US, then multiply it by 6 or so to get the number of employees there).

kcvt750 Nov 17, 2010 2:34 am


Originally Posted by acregal (Post 15167794)
Places have tons of employees around to help you with trivial things but very few people who can actually help you when you need it.

Sounds like Everywhere, Japan. Just pick your venue (and the gyms are the rule, not the exception). And there's no differentiating between public & private sectors. Cluelessness seems to be a prerequisite for the general working population.

acregal Nov 17, 2010 4:24 am


Originally Posted by kcvt750 (Post 15168768)
Sounds like Everywhere, Japan. Just pick your venue (and the gyms are the rule, not the exception). And there's no differentiating between public & private sectors. Cluelessness seems to be a prerequisite for the general working population.

It reminds me of when I went to Shakey's pizza with some friends. My friend asked for his drink without ice and the woman said she'd have to ask the manager if it was OK. :confused:

To be fair, most of the train station staff seem to be really good at their job and giving directions (although I have met a few subpar ones).

Q Shoe Guy Nov 17, 2010 6:49 am

In many instances I have found that the places with the knowledge are the smaller enterprises. The gym I have been frequenting is owned by former Mr. Japan and although he is a bit old school his training lessons and advice are exceptional ! I try not to bother with gigantic corporations as the staff are paid poorly and generally don't care, either in Japan or out!

jpatokal Nov 23, 2010 12:24 am


Originally Posted by joejones (Post 15167241)

The article mentions TPP as a glimmer of light... mere days before the latest Kan flip-flop that snuffed it out once again. :td:

The Japanese are indeed a famously patient and gamanzuyoi lot, but the longer the current malaise lasts with no end in sight, the more oddball/extremist "solutions" to it like the Kofuku Jitsugen-to will gain popular acceptance.

jpatokal Jan 21, 2011 4:54 am

More from the doomed file:

Urban decline in Japan: the alarm bells of Nagasaki

By many measures, Japan currently has the world's most undervalued property. Would you buy in today's market?

joejones Jan 21, 2011 6:17 am

I would buy if I had my own business that was portable to the sticks. Sadly, I am a salaryman in Tokyo, which leaves me stuck with more expensive options (though it is a lot cheaper now than it was three years ago).

peachy3 Jan 22, 2011 12:26 am

It's a wonder what Japan could have been if they actually thought about their monetary policy and didn't repeat the same thing they have been doing for the last Xteen years =\

The best thing Japan has going for them is all of their debt is domestic. Unlike USA!


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