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Here's another doom-monger:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...wing-in-japan/ I'm not sure I buy the line about hyperinflation and immediate disaster (and the author is wise enough to hedge his bets timewise in the last paragraph), but this I do agree with: Yes, they have a trade surplus, but it is much smaller than it used to be, and may be in structural deficit within a few years. ... However, I think the US and UK can still turn things around (which is not to say they will do so). I believe that Japan is already past the point of no return. The combined effects of the demographic crunch and compound interest on the debt are now unstoppable. The Japanese retired population currently sells a proportion of their saved bonds each year to live on. The Japanese working population currently buys these bonds and more issued by the government to save for retirement. In the future the amount of bonds sold by retiring people will increase to the point where the same number of bonds are sold by retirees as bought by workers. When that happens, the state will either have to borrow from foreigners or stop borrowing money. If it borrows from foreigners, they will demand 3 or 4 percent interest, not 1 percent as now. Since debt will be 250% of GDP at that time, or $10Trillion, that will move debt survicing costs from a paltry $100billion (2.5% of GDP) to an eye watering $400billion (10% of GDP). |
Originally Posted by jpatokal
(Post 13209262)
Or, in the simplest terms, how's Japan going to come up with the money to repay their debts? :confused:
The old government spending game was only able to survive based on a weak yen & an export-based economy. The rules have changed, but the gov't can't connect the dots. |
If Ambrose Evans-Pritchard felt 'rather lonely' in his New Year prediction that Japan's sovereign debt was going to be a Big Problem, he must not have been paying attention in the last quarter of 2009; given that the JGB short was one of the most over-hyped macro trades of that period.
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Originally Posted by ksandness
(Post 13146842)
I'd like to see government encouragement to decentralize. Everything--and I do mean everything--is concentrated in either the Tokyo area or the Osaka area, while other parts of the country are losing population.
People could enjoy a better quality of life in the smaller cities if there were good jobs there. A couple of years ago, I visited Aizu-Wakamatsu in Fukushima prefecture. It's a pleasant town, but it's too far from Tokyo to commute, even by Japanese standards, and the business district was about 1/4 dead. I bet there are a lot of people who would like a five-minute commute to work instead of a two-hour commute, and a nice manufacturing plant or corporate headquarters would do wonders for the local economy. I'm another one who would hate to see mechanized agriculture taking over Japan. Food may be expensive there, but it's not unaffordable, and the quality of their produce and meat is very high. Some of the casualties of the exam system may be secretly dreaming of a life where they didn't have to be part of the rat race or live out their lives as freeters. Some of them may have an untapped gift for growing plants and raising animals. That would solve the problem of the aging farm population. Moving the national government out of Tokyo would create another employment base in Japan and do much to decentralize the national economy. |
Japan is doomed because its women are all turning into lesbians and its men are in love with pillows.
I know this is true because I read it in English newspapers :p |
Originally Posted by joejones
(Post 13320195)
Japan is doomed because its women are all turning into lesbians and its men are in love with pillows.
Nothing to see here, move along.1 1- Toyota executives responding to reported accelerator/brake problems. |
Originally Posted by kcvt750
(Post 13322604)
1- Toyota executives responding to reported accelerator/brake problems.
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Originally Posted by keihin_242
(Post 13319356)
You nailed it, especially on the problems of overcentralization. The Tokyo metro area is actually working against Japan with the difficult living conditions it fosters.
Moving the national government out of Tokyo would create another employment base in Japan and do much to decentralize the national economy. It seems that the Japanese government is long overdue for such a move. |
Originally Posted by ksandness
(Post 13325387)
In ancient times, the emperors used to move the capital every time something went wrong in the country.
It seems that the Japanese government is long overdue for such a move. |
Originally Posted by kcvt750
(Post 13326880)
They might as well move it onto a shinkansen these days. It would save a lot of trouble packing & unpacking.
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Originally Posted by jib71
(Post 13322866)
You know, I think this whole issue is just part of Toyota's strategy to move the brand up-market. It seems they're emulating the great Ettore Bugatti himself: "I build my cars to go, not stop."
http://i714.photobucket.com/albums/w...age/Toyota.jpg |
Originally Posted by kcvt750
(Post 13329642)
:D
You could also do a nice Venn diagram using the Toyota logo. Expect to see it in a tabloid paper soon. |
Originally Posted by jib71
(Post 13327392)
Nope. These days JR Tokai is running the Shinkansen to stop and not to go.
http://jr-central.co.jp/news/release/_pdf/000007161.pdf |
Done
Originally Posted by jib71
(Post 13329804)
That's pretty good. I like pie.
You could also do a nice Venn diagram using the Toyota logo. Expect to see it in a tabloid paper soon. |
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