889

"You may be proven right, but I don’t think we are that far."

That's the problem in a nutshell. We can't wait until we are "that far." We need to act while we are still ahead of the curve, barely.

"Watchful waiting" has been the approach of not just the Hong Kong Government but of most governments worldwide.

And so we are where we are today.

helvetic

Xenophobia is at an all-time high these days, and seems to include even people who are your co-citizen who have simply been abroad.

tentseller

There has always been a gap between HKers who had the privilege of living or study abroad and returned (sea-turtles) and those without.
​​​​​​It is not a one sided problem as both side of this divide are at fault and have deep set emotional feelings towards the other
It is a problem HK administration need to deal with and bridge, very soon.

889

Those left to rot for months in Hubei largely fall on one side of the socio-economic divide while those allowed to bring the virus back from Europe largely fall on the other side. People pay more attention to the plight of people they can identify with. There are words like "bias" and "discrimination" to describe this, but using words like "xenophobia" and "hatred" is just silly.

Today, March 28, there are 42 new cases, of which 29 are returnees, including 21 from the U.K.

The Government is now starting to test a large number of asymptomatic returnees -- a good step to be sure -- and the results are very worrisome, with about one percent of asymptomatic returnees testing positive, and potentially contagious in the community.

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...7-20200328.htm

Shops are starting to put up notices that anyone wearing a quarantine wristband will be thrown out and reported to the police.

Pickles

I wonder what the false positive rate is here. And second, if they are testing positive and asymptomatic, it's very likely that there is an equivalent number in Hong Kong that has these conditions.

889

“ . . . it's very likely that there is an equivalent number in Hong Kong that has these conditions.”

The statistics aren't bearing that out. Cases are coming from returnees and the LKF cluster. Yesterday was typical: of the 42 new cases, 37 had a recent travel history and 5 were traced to LKF. That is, not one single case came from anonymous community transmission. If one percent of the population were contagious, you'd expect at least occasional transmission on the MTR and similar places, but that just doesn't seem to be happening, thankfully.

Of course the situation could change dramatically next week.

As to false positives, though I'm not sure, my impression is that those who test positive are at some point tested again. But those who test negative aren't. So if there's to be concern, it should be concern over false negatives. Little has been said about precisely what tests the Government is using and their reliability.

Pickles

You make the heroic assumption that if you're asymptomatic but test positive you're still contagious, or at least contagious enough to be a danger to others.

889

Heroic? Such odd and inapposite use of words here.

It is, if anything, a better-safe-than-sorry assumption.

And so far as I can gather it is the universal assumption being adopted worldwide: so long as you test positive you are isolated and regarded as hazmat.

But why don't you notify health authorities around the globe that they're making a "heroic" assumption and should re-consider their approach. They'd be grateful for the advice, I'm sure.

helvetic

So what? Citizens always have (or should have) a right to return to their country of origin.

If managed well, they don't really pose a danger. Just quarantine them at arrival, make them take a COVID test multiple times over the 14 days, and you can let them all return safely

Pickles

That doesn't deny my original line of argument, that I'm sure there are plenty of asymptomatic people floating around Hong Kong who haven't come from anywhere, and won't be tested because they're asymptomatic. Whether they're spreading the disease around or not (and it's a pretty fair assumption that whatever contagiosity an asymptomatic carrier would have is lower than that of who is showing symptoms) is irrelevant.

The number of local asymptomatic carriers is most likely to be way higher than the 1% out of a couple thousand people a day coming in from abroad. And if you quarantine everybody (which is what Hong Kong is doing), this argument is moot. Not sure exactly what your point is.

percysmith

AEL down to 15/min headways during peak hours, 30/min headways non-peak, in-town check in suspended (all w.e.f. 10 Apr 20) https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200404.htm

889

What's mystifying is that with Disneyland closed down for weeks, the MTR has nonetheless been diligently running the Sunny Bay line back and forth, at least till this latest adjustment.

No doubt there are still some maintenance and other workers at Disneyland, but a cheap and simple bus ought to be enough.

And with less than 1800 arrivals and departures at HKIA yesterday April 3, even keeping the AEL running has to be questionable. The Tung Chung MTR/S1 Bus connection isn't quite as good, but it's not an unreasonable alternative under the circumstances. (Yes, I know, you have to add some airport workers into the AEL passenger load.)

percysmith

Not sure about Disneyland but certainly HKG has cargo crew and ground agents?

889

True, that's why I added the parenthetical since I knew sure-as-shootin' someone would say that.

But whenever I've ridden the AEL, just about everyone seems to be carrying luggage and falling into the passenger category. I've always assumed that most airport workers either take the public buses or their employers arrange transport. In any event, getting from T1 to the cargo and other backstage areas would be something of a haul, I think, so the AEL may not be very efficient for many.

percysmith

Ban on visitor visas and transit (orig 14 days starting 25 March https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/...0032400050.htm) now extended indefinitely

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...abChangeable=0