Transatlantic travel this summer -- what are the odds?
Apr 27, 2020, 8:31 am
#17
Join Date: Apr 2020
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surprised at the lack of common sense on interpreting the situation we're in and ignoring the seriousness
- yes, the chances of dying from Covid-19 if you are young and healthy are <1%. let's ignore that it's no a ZERO CHANCE OF DYING if you're young (don't know why you would be so confident on something you're wrong about)
- yes, there's an argument that it's the same chance as dying of other causes
- there is a lot of fear because people have seen the # of deaths increase at a rate they've never seen before. many people have been affected by these deaths, so the fear is justified
- where are you getting information on Europe reopening? since you're apparently so focussed on facts, let's be clear that the larger EU countries are planning to tentatively ease lockdown restrictions, i.e.a partial reopening. that is very different to reopening. here in the UK, we are still in lockdown with no end in sight for the next few weeks. who knows what will happen when countries reopen? another wave of deaths could occur, which will set us back even more
- as several people have stated in response to this thread, the chances of you dying are very low, but the chances of you carrying it and passing it to someone who could die from it are much higher. why would you want to take this risk? especially if you could pass it to an elderly member of your family
Apr 27, 2020, 9:27 am
#18
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So I have a trip to Germany at the end of next month. Booked way before COVID19 was a thing anywhere.
I now read that Germany will not allow any tourists.
I had paid for travel insurance at time of booking as was planning a walking holiday which is now postponed.
Does insurance cover cancelling the cost of the flight? It is AIG if that makes any difference. United will provide an ETC but not a refund as the flight is not canceled. Obviously I would prefer to take the trip (Germany now says no) and if not my money back (United says no)
I now read that Germany will not allow any tourists.
I had paid for travel insurance at time of booking as was planning a walking holiday which is now postponed.
Does insurance cover cancelling the cost of the flight? It is AIG if that makes any difference. United will provide an ETC but not a refund as the flight is not canceled. Obviously I would prefer to take the trip (Germany now says no) and if not my money back (United says no)
Apr 27, 2020, 9:27 am
#19
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Apparently, someone is very confused as to who does really care about facts and who doesn’t really care about facts. Your statements above are appallingly uninformed.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...im/5170070002/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/
These are facts, whether you are willing to accept it or not. There are many other similar stories. Your failure to do even a minimal fact check minimizes these deaths and the pain the families are experiencing. And that, is a FACT!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...im/5170070002/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/
These are facts, whether you are willing to accept it or not. There are many other similar stories. Your failure to do even a minimal fact check minimizes these deaths and the pain the families are experiencing. And that, is a FACT!
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
Apr 27, 2020, 9:43 am
#20
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CDC STATS
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
Apr 27, 2020, 9:50 am
#21
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Sweden's death rate (per 100,000 population) is 22. US is 15 (NYC is 138). Germany is 7. Switzerland is 16. Austria is 6. Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...page#countries
Deaths/1M Population
Belgium: 622
Spain: 503
Italy: 441
UK: 305
Sweden: 225
USA: 169
Germany: 71
Apr 27, 2020, 10:00 am
#23
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CDC STATS
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
While everyone fixates on mortality, the thing we seem to ignore is morbidity and long term residual aftereffects from the disease (pulmonary function etc.)
We still have no good data on that. Again, just because one is young does not mean that the disease may not leave a residual long term issue.
In regards to the bolded portion, I will just let everyone read this reference, which I am not completely satisfied with but does put into English some complicated stats. However, i urge that the entire article be read.
Apr 27, 2020, 10:04 am
#25
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STATS
Deaths/1M Population
Belgium: 622
Spain: 503
Italy: 441
UK: 305
Sweden: 225
USA: 169
Germany: 71
Deaths/1M Population
Belgium: 622
Spain: 503
Italy: 441
UK: 305
Sweden: 225
USA: 169
Germany: 71
Apr 27, 2020, 10:05 am
#26
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: NYC
Programs: AA - EXP
Posts: 235
I get we all want to go back to giving ourselves panic attacks waiting for an upgrade to clear and drinking and eating our way through first-class lounges... but isn't the time to err on the side of caution overall?
Even if you are able to put to one side the dangers of being asymptotic and still spreading the virus or even contracting COVID and stressing health services around the world which are already struggling... Do you really want to risk being stuck in a .... hotel for 14 days, flight cancelations disrupted travel, and locals wondering what the hell you're doing in Florence?!
Sorry to be blunt but just chill for a bit... Vacations to Europe in the immediate 6 months after the first spike of a global pandemic of a virus with no cure currently and is hugely contagious feels a bit much.
Trust me, when the world has a clearer picture of a post-COVID-19 world and how to manage it that vacation to Europe is going to be sweeter than ever!
Even if you are able to put to one side the dangers of being asymptotic and still spreading the virus or even contracting COVID and stressing health services around the world which are already struggling... Do you really want to risk being stuck in a .... hotel for 14 days, flight cancelations disrupted travel, and locals wondering what the hell you're doing in Florence?!
Sorry to be blunt but just chill for a bit... Vacations to Europe in the immediate 6 months after the first spike of a global pandemic of a virus with no cure currently and is hugely contagious feels a bit much.
Trust me, when the world has a clearer picture of a post-COVID-19 world and how to manage it that vacation to Europe is going to be sweeter than ever!
Apr 27, 2020, 11:38 am
#27
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Original Poster
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Posts: 17,455
CDC STATS
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
698 people in America under age 45 have died from this, out of roughly 191,000,000 Americans under 45. Most of them probably had underlying conditions and they are counting EVERYTHING as a COVID death, like this 37 year old who died of a drug overdose while having COVID Overdose = COVID!
His statement was pretty well justified. New studies out of FL and CA seem to indicate the death rate is closer to 0.2% for all people and lower for young healthy people. Sweden, with no lockdown has less deaths per million than the U.S. or other Euro counties on full lock down.
Apr 27, 2020, 11:43 am
#28
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imo by july-august it will be perfectly safe in EU and US but with borders it's a politics issue as well so we'll see..
Apr 27, 2020, 12:28 pm
#29
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As more people become comfortable with the facts and science -- and, as we can tell from this thread, there are many who are not! -- borders will reopen. It's hard to know when. I'm guessing it's the US that will make the call, and that call won't be made quickly. New York is the epicenter of media and business in the USA, and they got hit hard by the European travel that brought death to their city. And then the rest of the USA got hit by the restrictions imposed because of NYC. Fortunately, I don't think Americans "blame" Europe for what happened -- we mostly blame China (while almost half of Americans also blame Trump, because that's just what they do). But there will likely still be a "what's the rush" mentality -- especially as life slowly returns to normal in America. I suspect similar border mentality will control in Europe. Call it "risk aversion," which comes easy to humans when the risk is an invisible enemy. So I'm thinking August is probably the earliest realistic shot at crossing the pond for leisure travel. And I'm not sure the odds of that are above 50-50.
My real and perhaps unfounded concern is of course that this IS a Chinese bioweapon (it's pretty well accepted it came from the Wuhan lab, unclear if engineered or from a collected sample), that infects, then sits dormant for some period of time before attacking again in a more fatal manner. Given the scope of the infection, and putting my tinfoil hat on, this is the sort of thing government's wouldn't tell us, to prevent panic and that we'll never find out from China, because they are incapable of truth telling.
Apr 27, 2020, 12:49 pm
#30
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My real and perhaps unfounded concern is of course that this IS a Chinese bioweapon (it's pretty well accepted it came from the Wuhan lab, unclear if engineered or from a collected sample), that infects, then sits dormant for some period of time before attacking again in a more fatal manner. Given the scope of the infection, and putting my tinfoil hat on, this is the sort of thing government's wouldn't tell us, to prevent panic and that we'll never find out from China, because they are incapable of truth telling.