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Transatlantic travel this summer -- what are the odds?

Transatlantic travel this summer -- what are the odds?

Old Apr 26, 20, 12:31 pm
  #1  
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Transatlantic travel this summer -- what are the odds?

So I'm holding two sets of transatlantic tickets for this summer: early June and late August (all booked before coronavirus became "a thing"). I'm beginning to think my early June trip is hopeless. There is zero discussion in the USA of opening borders: heck, we're in pitched political battles over the dangers of going outside or getting your hair cut, even in places with very few COVID-19 cases. I presume there will have to be several weeks of quasi-normal "life" in America before border opening even goes on the radar. I guess when the Canadian border opens, it will start to be a topic of discussion. Overall, there is so much fear in America about the virus -- most of it not actually well supported by science -- that I am certain that America will err on the side of over-caution on this issue.
Because reopening seems to be less political in Europe, I suspect it may be handled more rationally. Does anyone have any insight into when any of this may happen? A couple weeks ago, I read musings from various European governments that borders might stay closed this summer. Is that a likely bet? My late August trip is to the UK and France, and that would still seem to be a possibility at this point.
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Old Apr 26, 20, 3:19 pm
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"Overall, there is so much fear in America about the virus -- most of it not actually well supported by science -"

This sentence alone is why travels to Europe by US citizens hopefully will not resume until we learn to take the threat of this pandemic for all of its deadly implications.

Your flippant comment about "a thing" is also troubling.
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Old Apr 26, 20, 6:01 pm
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Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
Because reopening seems to be less political in Europe, I suspect it may be handled more rationally. Does anyone have any insight into when any of this may happen? A couple weeks ago, I read musings from various European governments that borders might stay closed this summer. Is that a likely bet? My late August trip is to the UK and France, and that would still seem to be a possibility at this point.
I don't claim any special insight, but it seems quite likely that specifics will vary by destination and routing, just like some US states are loosening restrictions earlier than others. The actual situation may not be known until shortly before departure. Early June does seem quite iffy at this point, but I wouldn't give up on late August just yet.
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Old Apr 26, 20, 7:43 pm
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Originally Posted by david55 View Post
"Overall, there is so much fear in America about the virus -- most of it not actually well supported by science -"

This sentence alone is why travels to Europe by US citizens hopefully will not resume until we learn to take the threat of this pandemic for all of its deadly implications.

Your flippant comment about "a thing" is also troubling.
By the tone of your comment, I know you're playing for Team Apocalypse and don't really care about facts. Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young, and a near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions. These are facts, whether you are willing to accept them or not. Fortunately for Europe, it does seem like most Europeans are capable of understanding the science. For while the mortality rate in Europe is stratospherically higher than the USA (outside of NYC), Europe is reopening and most of the USA is not. Illness and death are terrible, but wholier-than--thou demagoguery isn't so great either.
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Old Apr 26, 20, 8:28 pm
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Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
By the tone of your comment, I know you're playing for Team Apocalypse and don't really care about facts. Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young, and a near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions. These are facts, whether you are willing to accept them or not.
Apparently, someone is very confused as to who does really care about facts and who doesn’t really care about facts. Your statements above are appallingly uninformed.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...im/5170070002/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/


These are facts, whether you are willing to accept it or not. There are many other similar stories. Your failure to do even a minimal fact check minimizes these deaths and the pain the families are experiencing. And that, is a FACT!
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Last edited by FLYMSY; Apr 26, 20 at 8:36 pm
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Old Apr 26, 20, 11:02 pm
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Originally Posted by FLYMSY View Post
Apparently, someone is very confused as to who does really care about facts and who doesn’t really care about facts. Your statements above are appallingly uninformed.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...im/5170070002/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/05/health/young-people-dying-coronavirus-sanjay-gupta/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/


These are facts, whether you are willing to accept it or not. There are many other similar stories. Your failure to do even a minimal fact check minimizes these deaths and the pain the families are experiencing. And that, is a FACT!

Picking and choosing random news sources does not mean "facts". Fact is that the news media shines the spotlight on the deaths of young people (rare in this infection) because it creates more viewers and thus more advertising money. Look at the base statistics. FYI, expert opinion is not a fact. Peer reviewed research or raw data is the closest thing you can get to a fact with something like this. Facts are something like temperature, wind speed, or any other discretely measurable entity.
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Old Apr 26, 20, 11:46 pm
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Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
By the tone of your comment, I know you're playing for Team Apocalypse and don't really care about facts. Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young, and a near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions. These are facts, whether you are willing to accept them or not. Fortunately for Europe, it does seem like most Europeans are capable of understanding the science. For while the mortality rate in Europe is stratospherically higher than the USA (outside of NYC), Europe is reopening and most of the USA is not. Illness and death are terrible, but wholier-than--thou demagoguery isn't so great either.
Well, for New York City I did some rough calculations a while ago (taking national flu death data by age group and multiplying by NYC population data broken out by age), and found that a typical entire flu season could be expected to have 34 deaths of 18-44 year olds, and 160 feaths of 45-67 year olds. I’ll find my math on that if in doubt. At the time I did it (late march), COVID-19 deaths were about half that in each age group. 3 days later they were equal, and as of 4/26 there are 372 deaths of 18-44 year olds and 2563 deaths of 45-67 year olds. 10 to 15 times as many deaths in one month as a typical flu season. So probably not “ZERO chance of dying”, unless you are limiting “young” to 0-17 year olds.

I'm not sure "Europe is reopening" means quite what you think it does. I’m not on “Team Apocalypse”, and I hope to see things opened soon that can be, and a normalization of what kinds of activities/businesses operate based on risk criteria rather than politician's definitions of "essential" (i.e. most retail and manufacturing can open if they can maintain strict distancing/surface contamination procedures, but most large gatherings, sporting events, concerts and such can not for quite a while). That depends how seriously people are willing to take the conditions/restrictions of doing so, vs how many will just “Rudy Gobert” any suggestions, which will of necessity lead to a longer set of restrictions on all of us. The two buffoons in my local Subway (who were not young) insisting they were fine and this is all overblown, while refusing to back off a few feet so someone could get to a bag of chips are just prolonging this for everyone.
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Old Apr 27, 20, 12:31 am
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Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
By the tone of your comment, I know you're playing for Team Apocalypse and don't really care about facts. Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young, and a near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions. These are facts, whether you are willing to accept them or not. Fortunately for Europe, it does seem like most Europeans are capable of understanding the science. For while the mortality rate in Europe is stratospherically higher than the USA (outside of NYC), Europe is reopening and most of the USA is not. Illness and death are terrible, but wholier-than--thou demagoguery isn't so great either.
Sorry, but this is fake news.

As to transatlantic travel, assuming you mean to Europe, I think you can forget June. August might be possible but coupled with a 14 day quarantine, ruling out a holiday.
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Old Apr 27, 20, 3:45 am
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Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
By the tone of your comment, I know you're playing for Team Apocalypse and don't really care about facts. Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young, and a near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions. These are facts, whether you are willing to accept them or not. Fortunately for Europe, it does seem like most Europeans are capable of understanding the science. For while the mortality rate in Europe is stratospherically higher than the USA (outside of NYC), Europe is reopening and most of the USA is not. Illness and death are terrible, but wholier-than--thou demagoguery isn't so great either.

Wow, comments like this make me hope that my country (UK) do introduce stronger border checks and restrict transatlantic traffic even though it will inevitably affect my ability to travel. People with these types of attitudes are not welcome in my country and my many friends in Spain and Italy would pass on similar sentiments.

This previous post is just complete fake news and makes bold claims about facts, yet if you see my sources below, these baseless claims are not facts in any way.

Although it is true that the majority of the death caused by COVID are people who are older and have pre-existing medical issues. A comment like "Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young" is simply ignorant and wrong.
Please see the following news stories of young people dying in the UK due to COVID, including children:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-52263744 (21 year old with underlying issues)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52114476 (13 year old with no underlying issues)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ngham-51952607 (36 year old, no underlying issue but health worker)

I'm sure you will find similar stories in Italy, Spain, France and Belgium.

Here is an article from early April on the ages of people who died when deaths were at 3300 in the UK (they are now over 20k) https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/03/coron...e-uk-12506448/
3 people aged 0-19 (0.1%) and 26 people aged 20-39 (0.8%) had died at this point. If you extrapolate that to the current 20k death toll, if the same percentage is in operation that would be 18 people aged 0-19 and 157 people ages 20-39, tell their families that there is a "zero chance of dying if young"

Also the claim of "near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions" is questionable too, in this article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783 it showed that a study of 4000 COVID deaths in March and April in the UK, 91% of the victims had a preexisting medical condition. I dont know about you, but I would not call 9% a "near zero chance"
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Old Apr 27, 20, 6:00 am
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Originally Posted by iahphx View Post
By the tone of your comment, I know you're playing for Team Apocalypse and don't really care about facts. Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young, and a near zero chance of dying if you do not have serious pre-existing medical conditions. These are facts, whether you are willing to accept them or not. Fortunately for Europe, it does seem like most Europeans are capable of understanding the science. For while the mortality rate in Europe is stratospherically higher than the USA (outside of NYC), Europe is reopening and most of the USA is not. Illness and death are terrible, but wholier-than--thou demagoguery isn't so great either.
I appreciate your confidence in a uneventful recovery should you contract it. Can you be as certain, should you be a carrier of some type, of the same outcome for all the others who you may come into contact with while in that state? I wouldn't hold out much hope for a European holiday this summer.
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Old Apr 27, 20, 6:28 am
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Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young [...] Picking and choosing random news sources does not mean "facts".
Yes, it might be that there is an almost zero chance to die from Covid-19 if you are young and healthy.
But that in itself is a very selfish notion.

Because a young healthy guy may get infected and is not showing any symptons. However, that young chap is spreading the virus like crazy. The virus is spread to another young and healthy guy, who works in a nursing home. That guy is then spreading the virus to the sick and old.
This is most likely what has happened in the US, Italy and Austria in the early stages of this Pandemic.
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Old Apr 27, 20, 6:38 am
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Reminds me of 35 other threads where people think the pandemic is broken into teams. Like this is some really bad sequel to Twilight.

Odds of me completing my trip in early June to Germany, Spain, and the UK? 0%
Why? I cancelled it because I don't think it will be a good idea. I am on 'Team: Common Sense'
Odds of me getting all my money refunded? 45%

My situation is different from yours. If you think the risk is negligible, then I suppose your only question is whether you would be able to legally enter borders.

Odds of being able to go to the UK without a mandatory 14 day quarantine in August? I would guess over 50%
Odds of anything being remotely normal or open in Europe in early June? My opinion: slim.

Should you go? Can you catch a virus you don't think is bad? Who knows?

Your August trip will be August in Europe, which is definitely going to be a different August in Europe this year. A lot more Europeans staying closer to home.
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Old Apr 27, 20, 6:53 am
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Originally Posted by Docta View Post
Picking and choosing random news sources does not mean "facts". Fact is that the news media shines the spotlight on the deaths of young people (rare in this infection) because it creates more viewers and thus more advertising money. Look at the base statistics. FYI, expert opinion is not a fact. Peer reviewed research or raw data is the closest thing you can get to a fact with something like this. Facts are something like temperature, wind speed, or any other discretely measurable entity.
Nice attempt to divert and deflect attention from what is being discussed here - the assertions by the OP, such as, “Those facts show there is a ZERO chance of dying from COVID-19 if you are young,....” with regards to transatlantic travel.

Do you have any specific “facts” in support of the OP’s statement of “fact”?

BTW, temperature, wind speed, etc. are data, not facts. There’s a difference. (My apologies to the other posters in this thread for going off topic in this last part.)
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Old Apr 27, 20, 7:00 am
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In Quebec a young healthy guy was brought up from Montreal to work in our local old people's home. He worked for two weeks, then they discovered he had Covid, no symptoms at all. He brought the virus that now has infected 20 residents and almost as many staff. He still feels totally fine. You could be that man, spreading the virus like Typhoid Mary wherever you go.
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Old Apr 27, 20, 7:24 am
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So yes, like others I think the OP has a disturbing lack of understanding of the situation, presumably informed by unreliable US media. Having said that, to the original question, I do think it will be possible this summer to travel transatlantic from the US to Europe to various destinations (Greece, United Kingdom, potentially others) so long as he is willing to undergo quarantine. Quarantine-free trans-atlantic travel is not realistic. The bigger question would be how things play out in the US, and I don't think that anyone knows how that is going to go. I don't know if Trump is in a hurry to drop his ban on Eurozone travellers in particular, which would be an obvious issue. Perhaps the UK first?
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