I think EK should seriously cool it with rapid expansion. All these routes are going to take a toll on their service quality and gives the company a terrible incentive to accept unqualified service crew members and hasten their training just to get them on a plane to somewhere.

A drop in service quality eventually equates to a sharp drop in profits as evidenced by Singapore Airlines 54% drop in Q4 profits. Furthermore, EK has every need to provide excellent service quality to the Americas - the airline is virtually an unknown in this side of the world (unless you're one of the few Americans who actually watches "football" and is an Arsenal fan). It needs to ramp up marketing efforts and do a careful statistical analysis of further expansion in the Americas before it pulls the trigger on any other new destinations in the Americas that is not named ORD.

Moreover, I believe that the sharp increase in crew members leads to logistic issues as EK surely cannot take the burden in providing all these individuals with the luxurious living conditions that most EK crew members get to experience in downtown Dubai today. Disparity in crew member living conditions only leads to ideas of favoritism and may even creates possible animosity between the haves and the have-nots. Building new facilities in downtown Dubai may seem like a logical answer but can EK seriously keep up with building and renting new buildings while fuel prices rise out of control, have other logistics expenses to cater to with rapid expansion and Dubai's economy showcasing signs that it was built more upon dreams rather than substance? I think not.

My advice is to stop the Americas expansion at ORD and utilize a "hub and spoke" method with increased partnership with US domestic carriers. Jetblue in the East Coast and Virgin America in the West look like ideal partners that share EK's identity of glamor and excellent service.

These are my two cents.

There needs to be a distinction between attaining the property and paying for the development of the property. Attaining the property is, without a doubt, a simple task as Sheikh Mo owns Dubai anyways. However, developing the property is a completely different story. Development requires an infusion of capital that Dubai is struggling to attain.

He has two choices - he can sell the prime properties of downtown Dubai to wealthy investors and make a handsome profit and move the EK crew member housing to the outskirts of Dubai that border Sharjah OR he can build luxury apartments for all of EK's crew at his own expense. I think its a no brainer that Dubai's officials would choose the former approach.

Of course, EK's crew has the choice of finding their own place to rent and EK will reimburse them but rent in Dubai is outrageous and filled with narrow advertising stipulations (i.e. you need to be a Muslim...etc.) that will make it very difficult for EK's very diverse crew to get any form of housing at all.

I fully agree with the aircraft availability. I can see ORD but no other American cities in the coming years. LAS will simply not past considering that flying there would have negative connotations that a carrier from a predominantly Muslim-nation is espousing gambling. If you can't even hold hands or kiss someone of the opposite sex in a public place in Dubai, I doubt that the nation would ever allow EK to fly to a city that is aptly named "Sin City."

Not really, development loans in the region have become easier to come by, and banks around the GCC area at the moment don't mind pumping cash into companies with Govt's being a stake holder (Emaar for example). And lets not forget that selling MAJOR developments is not something HH Sheikh Mohammed is known for. I think the general view, at the moment, is its more prestigious to be hanging on to that asset (Hence the bigger/flashier/newer craze in the area) Plus, I think its the renaming of the Burj still hurts. Cash wise, its there. Dubai's issue was repayment of debt on "failed projects", Emaar is still developing the downtown area, Jumeirah is still building/buying properties world-wide, Meydan area expanding and being developed.

Being Muslim to rent? Thats a new one for me I know a lot of westerners in Dubai who rent and I'm 200% sure they are not muslim.

EK is also in the process of opening up new communities for families, I think there is a new "community" where people are moving in to now. (If I recall its Layan). As well as Millenium Tower which is mostly housing single pilots at the moment.

I think the major issue for EK is what you mentioned, crew with the "right standards" may be hard to come by at short notice/rapid expansion, so dropping the bar would seem to be the only option for the time being, and sometimes you really do see the standard has dropped. (The Italian F attendant on my EK 003 flight last year, I haven't forgotten you !)

I'm sorry, but I find all your arguments unsubstantiated.

Let's start with the last one. You do know that Singapore's gambling revenue is greater than that of Vegas? It's a bigger 'Sin city' than Vegas, yet EK flies 4 times daily.

You mention SQ's 54% drop in profits. Please provide evidence this was due to a drop in service quality? Most people rank SQ as one of the top carriers service wise, and I find it hard to imagine a slight fall in perceived quality would lead to such a big change. Is the actual reason spiraling fuel prices?

Your point about EK being unable to provide crew housing is moot. Real estate prices in Dubai are very low at present, and EK just needs to rent an entire building or two. Alternatively, they provide crew with an allowance and they can find their own accommodation. I wouldn't call the standards 'luxurious' - yes they live in nice apartment blocks, but usually 3 to an apartment.

I agree about difficulty in maintaining quality with rapid expansion. But EK has been expanding at this rate for many years - perhaps you only notice it since it is now in the US. Their training facilities are stellar (some of us have seen them), and capable of dealing with large numbers of crew. The crew would not all be experienced, and that's where there's a shortcoming, but from a business perspective I think EK would rather build up a presence than worry about service levels - at least while they're still able to fill all those planes.

Let's go through your arguments -

(a) Singapore does not harbor the same negative connotation as Las Vegas does with gambling. The fact you stipulated may be true but many people don't associate "gambling" and "sex" when you mention Singapore (in fact, I believe that many people would picture the complete opposite). I am emphasizing the negative connotations that Las Vegas has from a layman's perspective.

In addition, Singapore markets its gambling to tourist indirectly. Unlike, Las Vegas which puts emphasis on casinos, casinos and more casinos and indirectly markets other tourist spots such as live shows, Singapore conversely markets its tourist spots first (Universal Studios, shopping, cuisine...etc.) before letting people know that it also has great gambling facilities. This is evidence that Singapore has no intentions of turning a country known for its order and peace into a region known solely for gambling (unlike Las Vegas). (see advertisements for Marina Bay Sands. Marina Bay doesn't emphasize it has one of the world's most glamorous casinos, it instead focuses on the family-friendly atmosphere and the plethora of activities that one could do while staying there with gambling being one of the many activities that you could do).

In essence, a movie with the title of "The Hangover" would most likely be shot and based in Las Vegas over Singapore any day.

(b) Service quality encompasses more than just cabin crew service. It includes food quality, pricing and economy, accessibility whether it be booking via their website or via a third-party. If you read through the SQ board, you will find that many people have complained about each and everyone of those objectives. In fact, many of the individuals in the SQ board attribute SQ's lost profits to the deterioration of the enumerated facts above. That is how I actually got that information.

(c) Free living in the heart of downtown Dubai is a considerable luxury. 3 to an apartment when you have your own bedroom is a luxury when luxury is anything that goes above and beyond what an ordinary airline would provide (which is NO living at all). They have set incredibly high standards to meet for future living conditions of other crew members. Simply being unable to provide living conditions downtown is a sufficient reason for other crew members who have to live elsewhere on the outskirts of the desert to whine.

Moreover, if you can read from my other post, I am emphasizing the cost of development not the cost of the land. An argument about real estate prices being low when my argument is centered on development cost is "moot."

I have also acknowledged the existence of EK's generous program to pay for their crew's living with a stipend. I doubt that a crew member can find an apartment at the heart of Dubai with free utilities without having out-of-pocket cost.

(d) Expansion at a high rate is always foreseen when a company starts from 0. There comes a time when an airline company must make careful choices in deciding the most efficient routes to pair with the best choice of aircraft. It is too clear in history that airlines who have blindly followed their ambitions and did not use their common sense have ended up in the gutter.

The best example I have in mind is Philippine Airlines (PR). As Asia's longest operating airline corporation under the same name, PR was once considered one of Southeast Asia's best airline companies. PR showcased rapid expansion throughout the 80s and unveiled an ambitious plan to infuse an incredible amount of capital into the company so that it could have Asia's newest and youngest fleet of aircraft + have the most new destinations out of all the Southeast Asian airline companies. It had dreams of making Manila a major international destination and airline hub. The ill-fated decision unraveled when fuel prices skyrocketed and the airline paired the wrong aircraft with terrible destinations. The death knell was the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-1998. PR went into receivership and its domestic operations were handled by CX for sometime. In fact, CX even offered to purchase PR but PR refused by stating that the Filipino people would never allow their nation's flag carrier to be operated by a foreign company. This sad reality is now concluded with PR simply trying to survive and to claw its way back into merely becoming a profitable company.

I am not saying that EK's fate would come close to PR. All I am saying is that an airline who does not take due care in making common sense decisions and lets their ambitions blindly guide them will eventually falter. As shown by PR's story, any world event that is beyond the control of EK can smash its dreams. The only possible way an airline company can escape these unforeseeable events unscathed is to make sure that it takes a careful and more precise approach in its expansion.

The current rapid expansion of EK is tied to the arrival of new widebody equipment. EK is taking delivery of up to 22 B777s and 12 A380s in 2012, while the airline will gradually start retiring the 8-strong A343 fleet as well as potentially a couple of A332s.

Obviously, the fleet expansion was not decided upon overnight. These aircraft were ordered years ago, so we can expect that EK has anticipated corresponding crew requirements. While the standards in crew hiring may have dropped a bit over the years, I don't believe that the airline has become reckless in this regard.

Being a native of Dubai, I cannot help but laugh at your misconceptions and seemingly informed arguments, that you put across as the gospel truth, when in fact pretty much everything you have stated is false, inaccurate and/or unsubstantiated.

Emirates has a real estate arm that operates as a subsidiary firm, under the Emirates Group brand. They manage their own real estate projects, of which there are many and after the recession, they have chosen to partner with several developers across the city to help fund the completion of projects, which they then acquire in sale-lease back schemes. The properties vary in nature and are all situated in prime or desirable areas - believe it or not, these exist outside the "downtown" area you repeatedly refer to. Pilots gets luxury accommodation, separated from cabin crew, who more often than not end up in apartment blocks all over the city - nothing worse than having row after row of staff housing buildings concentrated in one place, especially given the vast numbers we are talking about.

As for Dubai "struggling", I think you need to pick up the papers and check your facts - the economy has turned around and granted it's no where near as buoyant as it used to be, 5% GDP growth is nothing to be laughed at when you think about the 0.5%-1% most western economies are struggling to achieve.

As for your comment about rents being unaffordable, those days are long gone. The recession put an end to that a long time ago and rents are now on par to levels seen back in 2004/2005, so Dubai has not been this affordable for a while.

And the whole issue of Islam being brought into the context of rental tenancies is a complete fallacy - Dubai and the UAE is one of the most tolerant places in the Middle East. Correction, it is the most tolerant place in the Middle East. Like anywhere else in the world, religion has nothing to do with whether or not you are able to secure accommodation. It would be considered illegal.

Don't get me wrong here, Dubai has its flaws and is very far from being a perfect utopia, but I cannot stand by and read things about the city that are simply untrue.

Apologies to the moderators for my rant.

Ok, since it's like trying to talk to my children (ie you don't listen to my polite requests) I've started this thread. So beat yourselves up here.

I think the word "downtown" refers to the Dubai mall and Burj area. I agree with everything you say whole heartedly.

Just a note on accomodations though, EK is not obliged to provide Luxurious accomodation to its staff or provide the rent allowance to let crew rent in top-end accomodation. As a business they are only obliged to offer decent/comfortable living quarters, which I honestly think they do. Wanting to be a crew member yet live in the heart of things and be a "high-roller" is something you may want, but the company will not provide. Remember, your here to work mainly.

With regards to the original question, they haver ordered 90 A380's and currently have the largest 77W fleet in the world which is just likely to expand even further.

With that kind of metal they need to expand in the current fashion. I believe they wont stop expanding until two criteria are met:

1. DXB becoming the busiest airport in the world, in terms of passengers
2. Emirates hitting the number 1 spot instead of the number 3 spot I think they currently have in terms of passenger movement.

All the other nitty gritty details are rather irrevalant to the customer.

LAS would make a perfect destination for Emirates as Dubai really wants to have that glamourous image that Las Vegas has with the hotels, night clubs, cars, money, plastic women, etc... Just not the gambling part

Thats my opinion

@Blackmamba
I agree that it will be a major challenge to cope with the additional capacity in terms of keeping quality at the current level. When it comes to demand on the other hand it would almost be a crime not to expand that fast. Let's go through your arguments:

- Singapore Airlines example
This is one of the best examples demonstrating why Emirates should expand. Singapore Airlines lost customers due to high fares (bad cost structure) and NOT because of a lack of service. Suggesting anything else is the same as claiming that Ryanair is loved for its excellent service and hated for the high fares. Over and above Emirates expansion will reduce costs on a lerm term basis (economies of scale) and therefore helps them avoiding a bad cost structure (the reason for Singapore Airlines subtantial drop in profits).

- @ crew members
Of course crew members will all turn mad and Emirates surely can't effort new buildings (but they can pay 90 A380's...). And of course capacity for new buildings is very limited in Dubai - a city in the middle of the desert.

- advice: hub and spoke
Hub and spoke won't work for Emirates with the exception of flights to Australia for obvious reasons: HYD-DXB-MIA (hypothetical) is no big deal but HYD-DXB-IAD-HYD with a connection at one of the miserable airports in the US (very few exceptions) is simply no alternative.
And suggesting to codeshare with US airlines doesn't make sense when you are warning of declining service standards: Most non-American people would never board the aircraft of an American airline if there is a way to prevent it (even if JetBlue and Virgin America are admittedly comparable to European airlines - but NEVER on the level of the ME3). In fact there are many cosmopolitan Americans thinking and doing the same.

- Las Vegas "Sin City"
Are you serious about that? We are talking about an airline of the UAE, a liberal Arab country with a modern Islam (even for Saudi Arabian Airlines I doubt that this argument would make sense). Over and above Thailand attracts about a 1000x more sex tourists than Nevada, consequently they would have to stop serving Bangkok.

- expansion of Philippine Airlines
Very simple: If an airline is superiour in terms of service, price, network, ... then there IS room to expand. PA and also most airline in Europe/North America are poorly managed by a bunch of dinosaurs, therefore airlines in these regions are unpopular among world travellers and additional capacity is not appreciated/required by the market.

@Omar84
Until they can't see an opportunity to make more money by expanding capacity will continue to grow.

oh gosh I didn't realize eightblack started a cage match for my comments. I loved everyone's unique perspective and appreciate learning more about EK's status. Thanks for the comments guys.

With regards to being unknown and the hub-spoke model... I think the loads to/from the USA/Canada speak for themselves.

I agree that EK marketing might need some work but those who travel to 'that side' of the word (UAE/Africa/India/Pakistan/Bangladesh) know EK well and eagerly await the airline's arrival into their US/Canadian city.

Expanding crew is hardly difficult. We are not talking about a difficult job here - serve some drinks and some food.