Saver VS Flex Fare Changes...
May 5, 2011 | 8:26 am
#181
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: UA GS-2MM, QF LTG, EK Gold, Marriott Amb, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 4,006
Sorry, maybe my logic wasn't clear.
In the future, a Gold member travelling in Y on an oversold flight would have an higher chance of an opup, compared to today. This is due to a decrease in the future Gold population. This is completely independent of the type of ticket (Flex/Saver) purchased.
For example, assume Gold population decreases to 50,000 (vs. current 100k) due to less tier miles being dished out. I am a gold member and my flight is oversold in Economy; 10 opups are required. My chances of being one of those 10 is now significantly improved (doubled in this example, assuming there are more than 20 Y golds on the flight) simply because there are less EK Golds out there.
Of course, there are load patterns specific to certain routes that may make this observation less relevant (e.g. a route with consistently low Y loads and high J loads). Similarly, if the number of Golds is less than opups available, then this is purely academic (step forward some very happy Silver members). On the routes I fly, there are typically opups available, but increasingly even more Golds chasing them. This, of course, is not the same situation on every route that Emirates fly.
I too have been perplexed by the mystical opup criteria for Golds, so I hadn't considered the prioritisation of FLEX ticket holders over SAVER ticket holders. However, since you mention it we probably shouldn't assume that EK would not consider using this as one of the mystery criteria in the future.
In the future, a Gold member travelling in Y on an oversold flight would have an higher chance of an opup, compared to today. This is due to a decrease in the future Gold population. This is completely independent of the type of ticket (Flex/Saver) purchased.
For example, assume Gold population decreases to 50,000 (vs. current 100k) due to less tier miles being dished out. I am a gold member and my flight is oversold in Economy; 10 opups are required. My chances of being one of those 10 is now significantly improved (doubled in this example, assuming there are more than 20 Y golds on the flight) simply because there are less EK Golds out there.
Of course, there are load patterns specific to certain routes that may make this observation less relevant (e.g. a route with consistently low Y loads and high J loads). Similarly, if the number of Golds is less than opups available, then this is purely academic (step forward some very happy Silver members). On the routes I fly, there are typically opups available, but increasingly even more Golds chasing them. This, of course, is not the same situation on every route that Emirates fly.
I too have been perplexed by the mystical opup criteria for Golds, so I hadn't considered the prioritisation of FLEX ticket holders over SAVER ticket holders. However, since you mention it we probably shouldn't assume that EK would not consider using this as one of the mystery criteria in the future.
We have no idea what the EK monster is contemplating
For example, in my case, I don't think I'll be impacted by the change. EK's business will continue to grow out of Australia into Asia, so loads will continue to increase. MEL will increase both in number of flights and ultimately airframe capacity (ie as more and more 380's populate the fleet).
I have a completely different mindset when I'm flying to DXB from SIN as I know the J cabin can often have 30+ Gold's (whereas the J cabin from SIN-MEL) you might be lucky to have 3-4.
I've not scored a single op-up out of DXB and I set my expectations low.
May 5, 2011 | 11:32 am
#182
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,050
The changes will effectively eliminate regular silvers and reduce regular golds (50K to 100K) to silver unless they pay significantly extra for the status. The majority will not pay the extra.
This is what EK wants as numbers of these have grown with the airline and they just can't cope any more.
The question as I see it is that once all the dust has settled is the overall EK/Skywards experience, at whatever level, better than the alternatives?
It is a bit galling when you see the profit figures, but it is their business after all.
May 6, 2011 | 2:37 am
#183
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: SYD
Programs: EK Silver, LH SEN, CX Gold, UA 2P, DJ Silver, Sixt Gold, PC Plat, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 148
I think you've expressed it very well.
The changes will effectively eliminate regular silvers and reduce regular golds (50K to 100K) to silver unless they pay significantly extra for the status. The majority will not pay the extra.
This is what EK wants as numbers of these have grown with the airline and they just can't cope any more.
The question as I see it is that once all the dust has settled is the overall EK/Skywards experience, at whatever level, better than the alternatives?
It is a bit galling when you see the profit figures, but it is their business after all.
The changes will effectively eliminate regular silvers and reduce regular golds (50K to 100K) to silver unless they pay significantly extra for the status. The majority will not pay the extra.
This is what EK wants as numbers of these have grown with the airline and they just can't cope any more.
The question as I see it is that once all the dust has settled is the overall EK/Skywards experience, at whatever level, better than the alternatives?
It is a bit galling when you see the profit figures, but it is their business after all.
I just had a C trip booked to Europe and EK was 2000 AUD more than LX/TG. TG is not comparable to EK on the A380 but is neck to neck when comparing with EK on 777. LX (new C) is just as good as EK (new C) and *G is absolutely superior to EK Gold. So easy decision for me.
Other options incl. SK/TG, SQ/LH or QF/LH, BA/AY were also cheaper than EK so it's not only limited to *A
May 7, 2011 | 1:29 am
#184
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Sydney & London
Programs: UA Lifetime Exec Plat (2MM)
Posts: 744
How does EK get away with that? Must be a lot of people around with more money than sense.
May 7, 2011 | 1:50 am
#185
Moderator, Hilton Honors
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: on a short leash
Programs: some
Posts: 71,445
May 17, 2011 | 2:26 am
#187
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: PDX
Programs: Don't think it matters...
Posts: 5,255
Last week I spoke to the local EK sales office and they confirmed the following : Currently there are no differences between Saver and Flex T&C's except the miles difference.. so if we pay less we get less miles ( which though bad for us , is pretty much what most airlines are doing nowadays
)
May 17, 2011 | 11:52 am
#188
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 10,050
Last week I spoke to the local EK sales office and they confirmed the following : Currently there are no differences between Saver and Flex T&C's except the miles difference.. so if we pay less we get less miles ( which though bad for us , is pretty much what most airlines are doing nowadays )
)
May 19, 2011 | 2:12 am
#189
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: PDX
Programs: Don't think it matters...
Posts: 5,255
This is Interesting..
Was checking out some fares and miles and this seems interesting..
CCU - DXB - DME ( return ) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 760, tier miles - 5000..
DME - DXB - CCU ( return) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 730, tier miles - 10000!!!
CCU - DXB - DME ( return ) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 760, tier miles - 5000..
DME - DXB - CCU ( return) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 730, tier miles - 10000!!!
May 19, 2011 | 3:18 am
#191
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Sydney & London
Programs: UA Lifetime Exec Plat (2MM)
Posts: 744
Was checking out some fares and miles and this seems interesting..
CCU - DXB - DME ( return ) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 760, tier miles - 5000..
DME - DXB - CCU ( return) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 730, tier miles - 10000!!!
CCU - DXB - DME ( return ) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 760, tier miles - 5000..
DME - DXB - CCU ( return) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 730, tier miles - 10000!!!
Were you going there?
May 19, 2011 | 3:25 am
#192
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: PDX
Programs: Don't think it matters...
Posts: 5,255
Point is that for the same routes with similar prices depending on the POS, the miles are different..
May 19, 2011 | 5:27 am
#193
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Exile
Posts: 16,064
May 19, 2011 | 6:09 pm
#194
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: AUS / DXB
Programs: BA Silver | AA LT Gold | EY Silver | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,838
Was checking out some fares and miles and this seems interesting..
CCU - DXB - DME ( return ) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 760, tier miles - 5000..
DME - DXB - CCU ( return) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 730, tier miles - 10000!!!
CCU - DXB - DME ( return ) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 760, tier miles - 5000..
DME - DXB - CCU ( return) -- dep - 20/05, return 26/05 -- fare-- approx Eur 730, tier miles - 10000!!!
May 19, 2011 | 6:10 pm
#195
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: AUS / DXB
Programs: BA Silver | AA LT Gold | EY Silver | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,838
I have seen this happen in the past, when the fare priced online was a low Flex fare, but when looking at fare data in ExpertFlyer, there were higher fares that would have priced as Saver.