While a few days ago it was showing Saver miles, now everything is showing Flex (even though fare rules are Saver). I'd book several for the rest of the year and then change dates as and when required just to ensure I get Flex miles and don't have to worry about this whole sordid affair till next year.

Only thing is fares could go down once this oil crisis abates, and I'm not sure my travel pattern will continue to be the same as it has previously been for the rest of the year.

I've only just really got into the detail of this issue, as it affects me, and I'm knocked out!

Looking at SIN-JNB and SIN-MAD, for example, for March 2012. Prices are only slightly higher than this year's bookings (maybe 10%), but the tier miles are exactly 50% of what they were this year.

If Emirates thinks I'm going to pay double for Gold status in 2013 over what I paid for Gold status in 2012 they have got to be kidding hugely.

I'll just revert to my Star and One-world Gold statuses (I'm sure I've said this before somewhere, so please don't get too upset about it).

That fares have all once again gone back to showing as Saver. Should have just bought tickets yesterday!

Was planning to buy a ticket in next few days and was elated yesterday .. Now again ..
How can they go on changing this so frequently.. seems to be still in the testing phase is it ?

Same thing here, was about to buy one today but it's saver again, oh well.

I have a slightly different take on the whole SAVER / FLEX debacle. Whilst the implementation has been utterly shambolic, in principle the introduction of SAVER / FLEX fares actually addresses many of the complaints that have been voiced by EK Gold members on this forum over the last 12 months:

• J Lounges overcrowded due to high numbers of Gold Pax
• Infrequent opups (in some cases) for high value FF
• Lack of availability of mileage upgrades (even using the famous Gold Desk)
• The need for an additional tier at 100K

If we segment EK Gold Members, we can see how different member profiles are impacted by these new changes vis-a-vis the status quo:

1. 100k+ legacy Gold Members: these guys are (generally) better off under the new rules as they will be members of much more exclusive club (�New� EK Gold effectively is the 100k tier), they will have access to quieter, more civilized lounges, and their chances of opups should increase considerably. They may even have slightly cheaper fares (oil price permitting). Furthermore, miles upgrade availability should also increase. They will however miss out on skywards miles, although it seems the miles accelerator program is being geared up and may compensate to some extent � in any event, for many this will be offset by the increase in gratis op-ups. I also believe that once the Gold population has been culled as EK plans, they will re-introduce the old guest policy for lounge access. When you step back and look at the changes being introduced, it is clear that Emirates are actually doing pretty good by these folks, although they may not initially realize it (it is after difficult to tell someone who will receive half the miles they did last year for the same annual spend that they are better off!).

2. 50-100k legacy Gold Members: The people who are most negatively impacted by the new changes are those who previously flew 50-100k tier miles (save for legacy Silver members who obviously now getting nothing at all!). They now find themselves faced with a choice to either accept their �demotion� to Silver or to cough up and pay the premium for Flex fares.

I am a 100% Y flying Gold member who scrapes in at just over 50K and sits firmly and squarely in the second group. Everybody looks for different things in a FF program; I enjoy the priority check in, the lounge access, and extra baggage on the rare occasions I need it, but for me the #1 benefit of EK Gold (by some margin) is opups. Based on my travel plans, the additional premium I estimate I will need pay to purchase Flex fares in the next 12 months is around �800. In return for this additional spend, I will achieve membership of what I call �New� EK Gold. There will be significantly fewer Gold members (50k vs. 100k??� just my back of the envelope guess) and therefore I would expect the benefits of membership to increase proportionately. Yes, the next 12 months of EK travel will be more expensive than the previous year, however I can reasonably expect my op-up rate to increase significantly, the lounges and priority check in will be less crowded, and there should be better upgrade availability when I decide to use my miles.

As I said, everyone is different, but for me this seems like a reasonable deal. The grind for me at the moment is the hoops that one must go through to actually book one of these elusive Flex fares. For the bookings I make (mostly ex-UK), the lowest Flex fare code seems to be W and is seldom available online for the routes and times I want to book. According to the DXB Gold desk, my options are to either book over the phones (7% surcharge ex-UK) or to book Flex fares on random dates online and then change via the call centre (�75 change fare ex-UK). Either way, I am getting hit with an additional charge, purely because emirates.com does not have the functionality to select Flex fares. AFAIK the situation for booking ex-DXB is a little less cumbersome as ex-DXB Flex tickets do not have a change fee.

I think you've missed an option. People in this category like me, who are gold with other airlines, simply won't fly EK.

That'll no doubt make you even happier (and me too).

Here's a little scenario for you. I purchase a cheap ticket on UA, SYD-LAX-SYD (< $1500), and with the miles earned, I can get a busness class award ticket LHR-DXB or KEF-AUH, or similar, etc, etc). Try that with EK.

I don't know how you correlate buying FLEX fares and op-ups? Or did I misunderstand your post?

Op-ups are load driven. Nothing more. So if you fly routes with heavy Y loads, your op-up chances are high irrespective of whether you hold a SAVER or a FLEX fare. And because no one at EK I know can tell me what the actual criteria is for determining how a person is op-upped, we cant assume that fare basis has anything to do with it. In fact, from my experience over the last 24-months, I would say actual fare paid is totally irrelevant. Status - yes. Fare basis - no.

So tell me again, why will your op-up rate increase significantly?

I understand the correlation to be between the reduced number of Gold members and op-up probability.

Obviously when loads require, there is a "queue" of Golds who are eligible to an op-up (think DXB RUH flights with 100 Golds in Y, you NEVER get an upgrade). If this number from 100 drops to - say - 50, the probability is higher.

But thats what he means with cat 2 right? In your segment, you find prices, rules & regulations to be too high and as a result you become Silver either due to Saver fare purchases or booking flights with other airlines as you say..

Because there will be fewer Golds with the changes so 'new' Golds will have a higher probability (choosing 1 out of 3 vs 1 out of 10 Golds).

While this may look all rosy for the few flying enough to retain benefits, and for whom redeemable miles are useless because they get plenty of op-ups, it doesn't benefit anyone else in the program. Which also has Silvers and Blues, not just Golds.

I've never got an op up from EK and I'm not counting on it. But I'm not spending double to get enough miles to upgrade a flight. And I'm not spending double to get a crowded priority check in, a lounge I don't need to use and a little bit of baggage allowance.

Yesterday, Tim Clark did mention that EK is thinking about increasing fares if oil prices is further going up.

Emirates likely to increase airfares

Source: Gulfnews

Yes, I noticed that. It's a double whammy. Like I posted earlier on, the combination of saver fares and rising oil prices means paying 60% more for the same miles. You'd think rising fuel prices would reduce flying to a level where the number of golds and silvers become manageable.

Sorry, maybe my logic wasn't clear.

In the future, a Gold member travelling in Y on an oversold flight would have an higher chance of an opup, compared to today. This is due to a decrease in the future Gold population. This is completely independent of the type of ticket (Flex/Saver) purchased.

For example, assume Gold population decreases to 50,000 (vs. current 100k) due to less tier miles being dished out. I am a gold member and my flight is oversold in Economy; 10 opups are required. My chances of being one of those 10 is now significantly improved (doubled in this example, assuming there are more than 20 Y golds on the flight) simply because there are less EK Golds out there.

Of course, there are load patterns specific to certain routes that may make this observation less relevant (e.g. a route with consistently low Y loads and high J loads). Similarly, if the number of Golds is less than opups available, then this is purely academic (step forward some very happy Silver members). On the routes I fly, there are typically opups available, but increasingly even more Golds chasing them. This, of course, is not the same situation on every route that Emirates fly.

I too have been perplexed by the mystical opup criteria for Golds, so I hadn't considered the prioritisation of FLEX ticket holders over SAVER ticket holders. However, since you mention it we probably shouldn't assume that EK would not consider using this as one of the mystery criteria in the future.

It's not even about paying double the fare. Pricing DXB - SIN, I can pay 3x for a Y/J mixed class booking and still get fewer miles than I get now.