Originally Posted by
eightblack
I don't know how you correlate buying FLEX fares and op-ups? Or did I misunderstand your post?
Op-ups are load driven. Nothing more. So if you fly routes with heavy Y loads, your op-up chances are high irrespective of whether you hold a SAVER or a FLEX fare. And because no one at EK I know can tell me what the actual criteria is for determining how a person is op-upped, we cant assume that fare basis has anything to do with it. In fact, from my experience over the last 24-months, I would say actual fare paid is totally irrelevant. Status - yes. Fare basis - no.
So tell me again, why will your op-up rate increase significantly?
Because there will be fewer Golds with the changes so 'new' Golds will have a higher probability (choosing 1 out of 3 vs 1 out of 10 Golds).
While this may look all rosy for the few flying enough to retain benefits, and for whom redeemable miles are useless because they get plenty of op-ups, it doesn't benefit anyone else in the program. Which also has Silvers and Blues, not just Golds.
I've never got an op up from EK and I'm not counting on it. But I'm not spending double to get enough miles to upgrade a flight. And I'm not spending double to get a crowded priority check in, a lounge I don't need to use and a little bit of baggage allowance.