Originally Posted by dxbtraveller

Sorry, maybe my logic wasn't clear.

In the future, a Gold member travelling in Y on an oversold flight would have an higher chance of an opup, compared to today. This is due to a decrease in the future Gold population. This is completely independent of the type of ticket (Flex/Saver) purchased.

For example, assume Gold population decreases to 50,000 (vs. current 100k) due to less tier miles being dished out. I am a gold member and my flight is oversold in Economy; 10 opups are required. My chances of being one of those 10 is now significantly improved (doubled in this example, assuming there are more than 20 Y golds on the flight) simply because there are less EK Golds out there.

Of course, there are load patterns specific to certain routes that may make this observation less relevant (e.g. a route with consistently low Y loads and high J loads). Similarly, if the number of Golds is less than opups available, then this is purely academic (step forward some very happy Silver members). On the routes I fly, there are typically opups available, but increasingly even more Golds chasing them. This, of course, is not the same situation on every route that Emirates fly.

I too have been perplexed by the mystical opup criteria for Golds, so I hadn't considered the prioritisation of FLEX ticket holders over SAVER ticket holders. However, since you mention it we probably shouldn't assume that EK would not consider using this as one of the mystery criteria in the future.