Estimating the Diamond Medallion Population
#16
Join Date: May 2009
Location: AMS
Posts: 2,065
Honestly, that's irrelevant (and has been pointed out and discussed in previous threads). It's the fact that you can "achieve" the highest published "Elite Frequent Flyer" status Delta has to offer without having to fly a single mile.
That's little more than a sad irony or a cruel joke. Give Frequent Flyer elite status to the actual flyer. Delta would have to change nothing, but simply add a published tier that makes sense for those who actually Fly Delta Jets.
That's little more than a sad irony or a cruel joke. Give Frequent Flyer elite status to the actual flyer. Delta would have to change nothing, but simply add a published tier that makes sense for those who actually Fly Delta Jets.
I maintain that an "elite" who barely ever actually flies, while kind of pointless, is not detrimental to those who do fly.
#18
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Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: MEM
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Posts: 5,431
Honestly, that's irrelevant (and has been pointed out and discussed in previous threads). It's the fact that you can "achieve" the highest published "Elite Frequent Flyer" status Delta has to offer without having to fly a single mile.
That's little more than a sad irony or a cruel joke. Give Frequent Flyer elite status to the actual flyer. Delta would have to change nothing, but simply add a published tier that makes sense for those who actually Fly Delta Jets.
That's little more than a sad irony or a cruel joke. Give Frequent Flyer elite status to the actual flyer. Delta would have to change nothing, but simply add a published tier that makes sense for those who actually Fly Delta Jets.
#19
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL PM, MR Titanium/LTP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 10,130
50,000+ of anything isn't very "Elite."
Diamond is the new PM, which is why I have to believe that MANY would be big advocates for another logical (published) tier above DM, using their current methodology -- GM is SM+SM, PM is GM+SM, DM is PM+GM, so the next logical tier would be ?M is DM+PM, or 200K MQMs and $24K MQDs (and let's kill all MQD waivers at this level, while we're at it, to make it truly a "flyer's tier").
Waivers and MQM bonuses have diluted DM into an oversize herd versus anything akin to "Elite" that should be more of an Endangered Species List. Anyone with a few Amex cards -- even without the third-level MQM invite -- can fly just 25K miles, hit the MQD waiver, and *POOF!* -- they're Diamond. If they get the third MQM boost invite, they can actually hit DM without having flown a single mile.
The painfully obvious question for Delta is: How is that rewarding your most-loyal fliers?
Hmmm... sorry, I just went Full Noob. Derp!
Diamond is the new PM, which is why I have to believe that MANY would be big advocates for another logical (published) tier above DM, using their current methodology -- GM is SM+SM, PM is GM+SM, DM is PM+GM, so the next logical tier would be ?M is DM+PM, or 200K MQMs and $24K MQDs (and let's kill all MQD waivers at this level, while we're at it, to make it truly a "flyer's tier").
Waivers and MQM bonuses have diluted DM into an oversize herd versus anything akin to "Elite" that should be more of an Endangered Species List. Anyone with a few Amex cards -- even without the third-level MQM invite -- can fly just 25K miles, hit the MQD waiver, and *POOF!* -- they're Diamond. If they get the third MQM boost invite, they can actually hit DM without having flown a single mile.
The painfully obvious question for Delta is: How is that rewarding your most-loyal fliers?
Hmmm... sorry, I just went Full Noob. Derp!
No, I'm well aware of the $250K waiver. Like many others here, I exceeded that in Q1 of this year. For those who received the third MQM boost notice from Amex, that means you can now -- for the first time ever -- reach DM without having to fly a single mile, literally. Even for those who didn't receive the notice, you'd still be able to achieve DM by flying only 25K MQM which, in some instances, can happen in just two flights.
There should be NO MQD waiver(s) for higher tiers. That's my point. $250K is still too easy to reach for many. If I can do it so easily -- basically running what amounts to little more than a home-based business -- then so can others. It dilutes "Elite" status and cheats those who actually fly the miles and pay the dollars. So, why not create a published tier (i.e. not a mystical, arbitrary, invite-only tier -- which is fine, BTW) that TRULY rewards the people who pay Delta to spend countless hours inside their tubes. Enough with the CC shenanigans.
There should be NO MQD waiver(s) for higher tiers. That's my point. $250K is still too easy to reach for many. If I can do it so easily -- basically running what amounts to little more than a home-based business -- then so can others. It dilutes "Elite" status and cheats those who actually fly the miles and pay the dollars. So, why not create a published tier (i.e. not a mystical, arbitrary, invite-only tier -- which is fine, BTW) that TRULY rewards the people who pay Delta to spend countless hours inside their tubes. Enough with the CC shenanigans.
While eight GUCs would be nice, I don't think it would be necessary. Just open a published, logical tier above DM that can't be achieved substantially through CC legerdemain. Assuming such a tier would follow the current method of calculation, that would be 200K MQMs and $24K MQDs, with no MQD waiver. It doesn't get any more "pure" than that, and doesn't even need to grant substantially more Choice Benefits than DM, other than sitting above DM and below 360 in the UG food chain as a genuine "Elite" flyer status tier.
Heck, they can even bring back the $25K DM Amex waiver then if they want, and it would -- at least in my hypothetical universe -- make everyone happy.
Heck, they can even bring back the $25K DM Amex waiver then if they want, and it would -- at least in my hypothetical universe -- make everyone happy.
Honestly, that's irrelevant (and has been pointed out and discussed in previous threads). It's the fact that you can "achieve" the highest published "Elite Frequent Flyer" status Delta has to offer without having to fly a single mile.
That's little more than a sad irony or a cruel joke. Give Frequent Flyer elite status to the actual flyer. Delta would have to change nothing, but simply add a published tier that makes sense for those who actually Fly Delta Jets.
That's little more than a sad irony or a cruel joke. Give Frequent Flyer elite status to the actual flyer. Delta would have to change nothing, but simply add a published tier that makes sense for those who actually Fly Delta Jets.
#21
Join Date: May 2013
Location: DTW
Programs: AMEX, Ritz LT-Plat Prem, Hyatt Plat, SPG Plat, Hilton Diamond, Delta Plat, United Gold, Sixt Plat
Posts: 866
Rerunning the numbers with the PM, GM and FO mileage value and rounding to 3 significant digits:
DM: somewhere between 42500 and 60000 (est 53500)
PM: somewhere between 82500 and 138000 (est 104000)
GM: somewhere between 153000 and 230000 (est 192000)
FO: somewhere between 315000 and 633000 (est 450000)
This math indicates either something is wrong with my estimating technique, or the medallion population has changed dramatically since 2013 with the introduction of MQD. Using these numbers to estimate what percentage of the overall Medallion population is a given level:
DM: 4-10% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 2%)
PM: 8-21% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 6%)
GM: 16-34% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 12%)
FO: 43-69% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 80%)
This suggests to me a combination of factors:
- PM and DM estimates probably should skew toward much higher miles flown than the qualification minimums (unsurprisingly), and FO/GM estimates should be on the lower end (just eking out a particular qualification level.)
- It's also possible that this is an indication that Delta's figures are based on actual physical miles flown - which would account for lower-than-expected numbers of GMs and FOs that disproportionately benefit from 500 mile minimums and class of service bonuses.
- GM is also a commonly comped/gifted status, which confuses things a bit too.
- Lower Medallion tiers (especially FO) may fly disproportionately large portions of their annual mileage during the peak summer and holiday seasons, unlike road warriors whose miles would be more distributed throughout the year.
Even accounting for all of that, though, these numbers suggest to me that the MQD qualification changes have at least partially thinned out the Silver Medallion ranks...
Thanks for sharing the other ranks' numbers, everyone!
DM: somewhere between 42500 and 60000 (est 53500)
PM: somewhere between 82500 and 138000 (est 104000)
GM: somewhere between 153000 and 230000 (est 192000)
FO: somewhere between 315000 and 633000 (est 450000)
This math indicates either something is wrong with my estimating technique, or the medallion population has changed dramatically since 2013 with the introduction of MQD. Using these numbers to estimate what percentage of the overall Medallion population is a given level:
DM: 4-10% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 2%)
PM: 8-21% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 6%)
GM: 16-34% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 12%)
FO: 43-69% of overall Medallions (2013 reported value: 80%)
This suggests to me a combination of factors:
- PM and DM estimates probably should skew toward much higher miles flown than the qualification minimums (unsurprisingly), and FO/GM estimates should be on the lower end (just eking out a particular qualification level.)
- It's also possible that this is an indication that Delta's figures are based on actual physical miles flown - which would account for lower-than-expected numbers of GMs and FOs that disproportionately benefit from 500 mile minimums and class of service bonuses.
- GM is also a commonly comped/gifted status, which confuses things a bit too.
- Lower Medallion tiers (especially FO) may fly disproportionately large portions of their annual mileage during the peak summer and holiday seasons, unlike road warriors whose miles would be more distributed throughout the year.
Even accounting for all of that, though, these numbers suggest to me that the MQD qualification changes have at least partially thinned out the Silver Medallion ranks...
Thanks for sharing the other ranks' numbers, everyone!
#22
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Nashville
Programs: DL DM 3 MM AA PLAT HH Lifetime Diamond Marriott Plat AMB lifetime titanium Hertz PC
Posts: 6,187
It's not an attainable tier for most FFs. $50K minimum at outstations, $100K+ at hubs. It's basically for people who buy full-fare F/J on a near-weekly basis.
It's not like the benefits are that great anyway. Super DM would come with eight GUCs, the ability to grant PM status, etc.
It's not like the benefits are that great anyway. Super DM would come with eight GUCs, the ability to grant PM status, etc.
#24
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: HSV
Programs: Bellevue Lifetime Premiere Mega Elite Supreme
Posts: 1,509
If there were one that clearly sucked less, I would (and so would many others), or if / when one antes up with a real program for FFers, perhaps.
#25
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: HSV
Programs: Bellevue Lifetime Premiere Mega Elite Supreme
Posts: 1,509
It's so good, nearly 60K people participate. Why would it be a bad thing to have another published tier above DM, using their same calculation methodology? Why would it be a bad thing to not be forced to compete with large herd numbers?
I'm not seeing what deleterious effect such a tier -- one that can't be manipulated by CC spend -- would create.
I'm not seeing what deleterious effect such a tier -- one that can't be manipulated by CC spend -- would create.
#26
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Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: MEM
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Posts: 5,431
It's so good, nearly 60K people participate. Why would it be a bad thing to have another published tier above DM, using their same calculation methodology? Why would it be a bad thing to not be forced to compete with large herd numbers?
I'm not seeing what deleterious effect such a tier -- one that can't be manipulated by CC spend -- would create.
I'm not seeing what deleterious effect such a tier -- one that can't be manipulated by CC spend -- would create.
#27
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: HSV
Programs: Bellevue Lifetime Premiere Mega Elite Supreme
Posts: 1,509
It was the same when DL stopped at Platinum and finally introduced Diamond to their masses -- why did they do it? Weren't the same arguments being used against that as are being used against introducing a tier above DM?
What's the difference here?
When it's all said and done, one person's opinion doesn't matter and it's all just mental masturbation. I would think the heavy fliers would welcome such a tier, and I would think the current DMs who would not qualify for one reason or another would be against such a tier.
That's just how the cookie crumbles.
#28
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: HSV
Programs: Bellevue Lifetime Premiere Mega Elite Supreme
Posts: 1,509
I think you are being too naive about the point of frequent flyer programs. It isn't to make travelling nicer for frequent flyers. It's to keep the people who make Delta the most money loyal to Delta so that they continue doing so. How they make Delta that money is not relevant. If all you do is fly deep discount economy four times a week I'm pretty sure Delta would prefer you not have status as you aren't actually making them any profit (just revenue). Meanwhile if you never fly but still spend crapton of money on their credit card: that's basically free money so bring it on.
I maintain that an "elite" who barely ever actually flies, while kind of pointless, is not detrimental to those who do fly.
I maintain that an "elite" who barely ever actually flies, while kind of pointless, is not detrimental to those who do fly.
#30
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2013
Programs: DL PM, MR Titanium/LTP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 10,130
So why does Delta need to give away anything else to keep you loyal if your current perception is there isn't another FFP that sucks less than DM?
It sounds like the current suite of offerings for DM is sufficient to keep you from going elsewhere -- after all they are a for-profit company, not a charity and the FFP is a way for them to maximize profits, not give them away.