javabytes

I don't have many details on your situation, but I cringe at this. You should be getting much better return for your spend than DL miles. The only category bonus is DL airfare, for which an Amex Platinum outright stomps the DL Amex cards. Everything else at 1 mile/$1 is likely better spent on cards that do provide category bonuses, and reward in better mileage currencies than SkyMiles.

Even if you want the MQMs to build rollover, there's absolutely no reason to spend beyond the MQM boost thresholds.

A year or two from now, I wonder if you will find this latest change actually sets you free. Or perhaps there is something I'm missing...

captaink

The math is going to vary based on markets, cabin mix, and when flights are booked, but one thing to consider is that cheap Int'l Y fares are frequently mostly taxes and fees, with delta getting very little actual revenue on flights that award lots of MQM. Delta crunched the numbers and they feel that 50 RT road warriors flying domestic hops (mooching upgrades the whole way ) are more valuable to them than someone getting 125k MQM on cheap int'l Y fares and arcane routings to maximize MQMs, so they're removing the MQD exemption that lets the latter get DM based on mileage alone.

For the record, even my "cheap" $300 RTs still have me hitting the MQD thresholds well before I hit the MQM/S thresholds, and while I do my part to drink Delta's excess Woodford when given the chance, I doubt that the wholesale cost of alcohol and snacks amounts to more than $10-15/pax (if that). They probably spend that much on each TATL Y pax...

sm0421

for me it's ok, spent $43K on ticket already this year.

dmann33

Well, for starters, you don't need to FLY 125K MQMs to seek the waiver. I get well over 125k MQMs without flying, so, yes, I seek the waiver. Fortunately, I can still make the $250K waiver, but I think it too high.

This->> I would imagine that DL makes bank on the kickbacks of $250K spend AND Amex gets to hang that carrot for us suckers.

bergamini

Have you flown domestic hops on a road warrior's schedule? The UG rates are atrocious on those dates. At one point this year, as a Plat, I was 2/20 on MSN<>ATL<>JAN segments before I insisted on booking A/G fares for the SDC due to a client that changed their minds all the time. Both UG's were MSN>ATL so that meant for 10 straight flights to/from Jackson, MS, I was not UG as a Plat on a $600-700 RT fare from Madison, WI. It's not a glamorous life of free upgrades as a road warrior!

But I think we agree for sure on DL's intent.

I agree with this change but when I don't, then I'm ready to switch to just taking the best flight always and if I want a premium cabin on international travel, use a Chase Reserve or buy PE. I took PE on VS once and it was quite enjoyable, although I made it the AM JFK>LHR so no red-eye.

manacit

I'm very happy with the response this has gotten on FT. A lot of airline bloggers (TPG, etc) are all calling this crazy and spinning it to be a negative, mostly because it makes selling the dream of elite status more difficult more than anything.

As a NYC-based PM, I think this move totally makes sense for DL as a business, even if it removes any possibility of me getting DM any time soon. I'm not a travel-every-week road warrior, most of my flying is JFK-SFO-JFK where I'm not eligible for anything but C+ upgrades anyway. I'll actually hit the PM spend by EoY, so the only thing the MQD waiver has gotten me this year is more time as a PM (and an opportunity to spend my RUCs faster). I have an Amex Plat (non-DL) for lounge access, as long as that's not taken away we're good.

From my perspective, this will allow me to roll over more MQMs on a yearly basis as long as this is the case, and hopefully have enough that if I travel less over a year (or more), I can easily tweak my earning to keep that rollover bloat for a while to come. They didn't remove any MQM boosts from the cards, so I'll still happily spend at least $25k for a while.

robnsfla

I treat myself to a new Bentley every other year so 2018 spend will easily hit 250K on the Bentley alone....

captaink

I've been lucky, I suppose My Monday-Thursday travel has been about 75% on the outbounds and 50% on returns as a plat. But my comment was less about my personal UG success as it was the idea that Domestic UGs are this giant money hole for Delta that eats up all the profit from domestic road warrior fares, as compared to someone who flies MEM-CHS via MSP and ATL in Y.

Uncle Lars

I'm not really whining here. Trying to live the high life as a "weed" is getting harder every year! For me next year, the question will boil down to whether spending an extra $3K or so, out of my own pocket (and ironically probably on yet more flights where I'm barely covering the fuel, as you say), is worth it for Diamond Status!

KevinDTW

You too??!!

gooselee

I don't have the latest numbers, but aren't all the legacies running pretty good capacity %s across the board these days? Every time DL (or any other airline) makes a change, people start talking about how they're going to leave, and DL will lose business, etc. But it never actually happens in a noticeable way, IME. Planes still go out nearly full and the world goes on.

Even if people are leaving DL in droves, seats are still filled to the point where I would have to assume that DL is backfilling those seats with other/new customers, or even occasional pax with no status. So now, perhaps they're still only selling a cheap XV fare, but they're selling it to someone from whom they'll also collect a checked bag fee, maybe SDC fee, lower IRROPs comp, no SkyClub snacks, etc....in other words, even if they don't increase margin by pulling a higher price, they can increase margin by reducing cost.

All fair points. I was merely stating the obvious - as you said, DL would not have taking the action if they didn't think they'd come out ahead. I don't have the information that DL has, so I can't draw my own conclusion.

There is of course a non-insignificant chance that this blows up in DL's face. But if I were to bet on this, I would bet with DL.

We all remember the flops like New Coke. But for every one of those, there dozens of actually good decisions that don't become failure anecdotes (take the McRib - people love to make fun of it, but it sells like crazy every time they bring it back). The ability of businesses to make good "guesses" is getting even better with the availability of big data and predictive analytics nowadays.

hockeyinsider

I wonder how this will impact the tiebreaker (for upgrade purposes) that the Reserve card serves now. Didn't Delta already change the formula to only work if you've reached the spending threshold?

dmann33

Good point.

I have wondered if my spend would be more helpful on other cards, but I've REALLY become accustomed to TATL GUC use 1x per year -
there's no going back to coach! I also like using the 4 bogo certs for family travel, and getting free upgrades when I use my miles to fly with the family. Skyclub is nice and many agents are cool with the family coming in for free on weekends. I've also changed award tickets for the kids that were only attached to my wife's GM account and they voluntarily waived the redeposit fee. I suspect my DM status may help with some of these generosities. If it weren't for the GUCs though, it would be easy to fall back to PL.

Nolala

15k MQD doesn't equal $15,000. It probably equals closer to $20,000 or $25,000 depending on the taxes/fees since they don't count toward MQD.

MSPeconomist

Renes' Points or however he spells his name. If he was able to spend $25,000 very early in the year, presumably through MS, doing $250,000 over twelve months should be trivial. He seems to be cheering over the fact that there will still be a MQD waiver (that most folks don't have any hope of getting).

ADDED: I wonder how the people who joined his letter writing (to DL and AmEx) campaign are feeling now.