The Future of JFK-IST?
 

FWIW, there is a thread of a.net that says there is a rumor that DL will suspend or terminate this route. Has anyone heard anything to suggest that there is something to this rumor?

I hope DL keeps either JFK or ATL (or I'd settle for another gateway but this is unlikely) to/from IST nonstop. However, it's a long narrow route and these are tough when oil is expensive. If DL had 787s, IST would be natural. I can also envision that IST might become seasonal, although reducing the frequency would also work. I don't know how easy it is for DL to operate a route without any of its own staff at the airport, but IST has a number of AF and KLM connections, so perhaps partner employees would work here.

With lower prices and better service, TK has stepped up their game. DL now has much more competition and presumably higher CASM than TK. IST would be more cost effectively served via CDG/AMS/FCO for Skyteam.

True, but the nonstop is so much better for sleeping and for the scheduled departure times. Also, having a nonstop makes DL more competitive with TK. It might be different if AF and KLM used different aircraft rather than narrow bodies with European-style business class.

Pretty sure it is going seasonal. Suspends in October and resumes in march or may I believe I heard. I'm guessing DL doesn't want to compete in the off season with TK and UA's $500 RT fares when they can flow the traffic through AMS/CDG just as easily and share the revenues and costs with minimal risk. I could be wrong but I just don't think there is enough premium demand that require flying the nonstop to have 3 carriers when there are so many other options 1 stop to get to IST. Seeing fares I would imagine its a relatively low yield market as well, only in the summer when inventory is tight can it make much money

I am on a JFK-IST on 11/23 Nonstop so don't think it is suspended in Oct.

In evaluating this flight, don't forget that a lot of good technical professional work (engineering and commuter science) is being outsourced to Turkey and it's a growing economy, so there is business travel. Moreover, Turkey has been a fashionable upscale leisure destination for a while, albeit more among Europeans than Americans. Of course there's the student/backpacker travel too, but there is demand for premium seats, perhaps more than one would suspect.

But TK has lower RASM considering I could have booked a G fare JNB-JKT for less than $800 rt ai no tricks.
With tricks I could get $320...

I'm not sure what we learn by comparing the cheapest fares available on a random date. The entire distribution of coach fares on the plane matters (including the number of unsold seats) as well as the number of premium seats sold at various prices. In fact, in principle, we should also consider network effects: when DL sells JFK-IST, with some probability they also sell domestic connecting flights too but when TK sells this TATL flight, the domestic connections are likely to be on partners UA and US.

Paging hfly.


Darn shame. This route has been a steady presence for so many years.

I have complained about riding the old 763s on my three JFK-IST runs in as many years, but giving up a non-stop will be unfortunate.

I like ATL-AMS, but AMS-IST is a bit long for KLM seats even on a BE ticket. Much like the ATH-AMS I am trying to avoid if I change my return for early Sept.

I'm on IST-JFK on 11/26 :cool:

Well, still seems just a rumor to me so far, no hard info. The negatives about using AMS, FCO or CDG as a connection for the passenger are obvious. I generally prefer to wake up at my final destination after an overnight flight rather than have to charge my way to a connection. Plus, the intra-European flights do not really even have a FC even though they keep the middle seat open. And if you do not happen to live in a city served by trans-Atlantic Skyteam flights, then you now have a double connection instead of just a connection at JFK.

Plus, we are seeing a slow but steady shrinking of DL with dropped cities, seasonal service etc. With fuel prices, sometimes the only way to win is not to play.

Connecting from TK to UA is very inconvenient as it involves traveling between JFK and EWR. In fact, TK should consider moving to EWR.

That'd be tough as they have/had a large advertising campaign in NYC for their nonstop JFK-IST service, including a large billboard right in front of the entrance to the midtown tunnel.