pbarnette

My understanding is that no carriers (American or Japanese) can operate long-haul flights, except during the specified times. The time restrictions are basically equivalent to LGA perimeter restrictions. The goal isn't to protect Japanese carriers, but to protect NRT.

Now, I also believe that the Japanese carriers were granted more Japan-USA slots than the US carriers, and have more feed at HND. All of which helps their position, but I don't believe the timing of these flights would change, even if the agreement allowed for more US access.

Beckles

Exactly what I was about to say about the comments questioning "Open Skies", HND is like LGA, DCA, and DAL with restrictions on the flights the airports can operate, Open Skies does not over ride those restrictions. They are offering exemption slots though, much like they have done at DCA.

DoubleHaul

Which is a long winded way of saying..."We'll give them to who we want for whatever reason we want...and then justify it in the decision by loosely using these criteria."

I doubt DL will get anything out of this...its already the largest US carrier at NRT. It may not really want any of those slots, either, since it would require opening a new station for one flight a day and would have no connectivity at the already established NRT hub. There is some merit, however, to the idea of being able to serve the US-Japan market outside the envelope of flight times offered today, which can't be done because of the NRT curfews.

There has long been a point of view regarding DOT selection proceedings that you pretty much apply for anything even if you don't really want it or think you will get it...because the next time around (say in two years, when HND hypothetically allocates some prime-time slots to US carriers) it looks bad if anyone can point out - "hey, (insert carrier here) is not really interested in HND service because they did not even apply last time, whereas (my carrier) has already demonstrated its unwavering commitment to providing convenient service at low fares to the hoards of passengers who want to use HND."

In the end, though, who knows? Maybe someone at DOT wants to throw DL a bone after failing to get JL away from OW.

I had to bet on any carrier being a lock, however, it would be HA as a new entrant.

RealHJ

Not really, it provides among the most benefit. Create 1000s of US jobs by boosting toursism to Hawaii - what the state lives and depends on. HA has been present in Japan for decades, has a proper and full Japanese langauge site and extensive local marketing in JP, and also puts forth a much better image of the US through it's service and planes vs. the other American airlines. And best of all, after HND-HNL connection to any major airport in the US is easily possible and logical, while any other route always ends up cutting down on some connection options by making them infeasible.

pbarnette

The rest of your points are clearly YMMV, but this one is just a headscratcher. Aside from simply being out of the way to anywhere in the other 49 states, HNL simply has less service to fewer cities than the other options. From a # of connections standpoint, DTW almost certainly makes the most sense (along with EWR), followed by SEA or maybe LAX, but both of these are hurt by the arrival time back into the US (for outbound, they offer excellent timing). SFO might offer some decent possibilities for connections, too, but the UA press release doesn't list the schedule - my guess is that the SFO flight will arrive late, like the SEA and LAX flights.

FLLDL

I actually thought it was a very constructive comment. If thousands of passengers start arriving later at night, the transport services will adjust accordingly.

RealHJ

Somehow I wouldn't like to fly HND-DTW-HNL or HND-DTW-LAX or HND-DTW-SFO or HND-DTW-SLC or (...). Sorry.. but that just makes no sense whatsoever. DTW is so far east that it cuts out connections to the majority of US from HND by making one backtrack back west again a lot, and adding unnecessary flying time + burning extra fuel.

..while via HNL it's easy to go to anywhere. HND-HNL- SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, DFW, IAH, SLC, EWR, DTW, MSP, SLC, ATL, ORD, PHX, CLT, and so on: all easy and practical connections.

How many Japanese tourists would go to, say, CLT? Well not that many (may be some car manafacturer execs though). But, via HNL it's an easy connection. Just as to LAX, SFO, IAH, SLC,... you name it. Not so through anywhere else.

HNL is on the way to anywhere in US49.. except Alaska. Going in HNL one can keep going on East to go to anywhere in US49 (again except AK).

And, let's not forget that also then HND-HNL-SYD and HND-HNL-AKL would be two practical connections (HNL-SYD operated by Quantas, Jetstar, and HA direct, and Air Pacific via Nadi quick connecton, and HNL-AKL operated by Air New Zealand), while currently from HND one likely can't practically go to those destinations, unless perhaps via ICN on KE. So, it would be even more practical and have more traffic as it's not just Japanese tourists going to US dependant, but also bringing connections to, say, AU and NZ as well.

Even if all three slots HND-HNL requested were awared (2 to HA, 1 to DL), there would be likely no trouble filling those year round. Likely HA mostly end destination HNL (and some to west coast + SYD), while DL could likely time more connections further out east to west coast, central, and east US. Same can't be said for the other routes, as for those there are much less people going to the end destination and more relying connections, and more seasonal. Also, the impact on US economy for more HND-HNL routes would be the most obvious and pronouncedly positive vs. any other routes. Quite likely then those $xxx Millions down in hotel revenues (as seen in Honolulu Advertiser headline just yesterday) would then reverse.

MastaHanky

Uhhh....

HND-HNL-LAX = 6,409 miles
HND-LAX = 5,488 miles

HND-HNL-DTW = 8,328 miles
HND-DTW = 6,427 miles

Hardly along the way to the US48.

A DTW flight is grabbing all the secondary east coast markets with one-stop service to HND, something HNL will never be able to do.

Wiirachay

Look at RealHJ's location on his/her profile. I propose that DL moves its hubs to HNL and opens World Gateway II there.

I think DTW would be a great option for all the business markets in the eastern seaboard. LAX would present an issue due to a late arrival time. But, there could be some decent west coast connections, although not to the middle of the US.

- Pat

pbarnette

Why the obsession with East-West? You are proposing going South, just to go North again.

Flying via DTW is comparable or better, in terms of distance to (roughly) anywhere east of DFW. This means that it is a shorter route for maybe 65% or so of the population. And the timing of the DTW flight allows for far more same day, single-stop connections to more cities than HNL does. And, importantly, from DL's perspective, more flights on their own metal.

And the timing of the HNL flight offers pretty bad connection possibilities. Looking at all carriers, a noon arrival (which is as early as any carrier will be able to do) means that you can make a reasonable same-day connection to LAX, PHX, LAS, PDX, SFO, and SEA. All of those flights arrive too late to allow for significant numbers of onward connections, save maybe a few red-eyes.

In other words, connecting via HNL would offer an advantage over DTW for less than maybe 10 cities (I might have missed some post-1:30p HNL-West Coast departures). Of those, all but PHX and LAS have non-stop service to NRT. I don't care how far from Tokyo NRT is, how much demand is there to fly 1k miles out of one's way and add in a 2-hour connection simply to fly HND-LAX, rather than NRT-LAX?

motytrah

The NRT-HNL-XXX connection was one of my favorite routes to take back from Asia back in the NW days. It was super easy to book and usually the stop over was free or at most $100. Great way to add some vacation time to an international J trip. DL has not been so nice about allowing routing via HNL.

HND is a no brainer as far as O/D traffic to tokyo. It's 16 minutes from the express train in HND to Hamamatsuchō Station (Yamanote Line). Compared to 50 minutes on the Narita Express. By Limo bus can mean up to an hour less land transport. These routes are big deals for O/D.

That being said, the Japan to Hawaii flights are primarily purchased by Asian customers. There's a lot of frequencies between NW, JL and NH. HA is likely quite competitive with the existing options. DL really dropped the ball with the Asia Elite program, I think HA sees an opportunity to expand.

DiverDave

What are the loads like on the current HNL service to Japan? If they are packed, then there is a case for additional service direct to HNL.

But I had thought that loads from Japan to HNL were way down.

David

RealHJ

NW had (now DL has) 2 x daily HNL-NRT on 747's. DL is adding, starting later this summer, a third daily HNL-NRT (on A330). Also there is daily HNL-KIX on DL. And then a lot (I think like 7 from seeing the JL area departures board at HNL airport recently, but I may be off slightly) daily flights to Japan on JL (NRT, NGO, KIX), code shared with AA of course. And then also a bunch of UA and NH flights also. So all together well over 10, approaching 20, total daily HNL - Japan flights on 777's/747's/A330's, and carriers seem to be adding capacity to it to meet the demand. Total pax capacity daily HNL - Japan currently I'd estimate at somewhere around 5000.

Even KE is adding a second HNL-NRT flight, as the daily flight there (B747) is so full that they need to add a second flight, I think thrice weekly for now (as of this summer also, and staying on for fall and winter).

So, the loads are definitely high from HNL to Asia bound (or rather from, as these flights are mostly tourists that bring US economy much needed $$), both to Japan and also to Korea, and airlines (DL, KE - not sure about others like HA or China Airlines) are adding capacity this year.

cptlflyer

That's not true at all. Airport regulations and limits are totally independent of Open Skies. We don't exempt foreign carriers from countries with which we have Open Skies agreements from slot and perimeter restrictions at LGA or DCA, for example. One has nothing to do with the other.

5khours

+1