Delta's Unchallenged Exploitation of Africa Comes to an End
Nov 6, 2009, 4:08 pm
#46
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The reality is that UA wouldn't have selected Ghana -- even in this way -- if they didn't think there were enough paying customers paying enough to have it make sense. The people who fly to/from/via Ghana are going to have substantially more purchasing power than the average resident of Accra. Those are the customers that pay for the service. DL management probably did much the same thing as UA when DL management came up with Senegal.
I made no attempt to make this a referendum about DL management's knowledge of Africa, so who knows what attempt is being appreciated.
So by that kind of reasoning why not tack on some other city besides the ones named, and then another city and then another city? Perhaps because providing service in the way that is actually being done by DL and UA is presumed by airline management to make financial sense in that there is some foundation to believe that there are more customers willing to help pay for the airline's cost of servicing travel to/from the region by selecting the cities that actually were selected rather than doing it "simply because it can be"?
I made no attempt to make this a referendum about DL management's knowledge of Africa, so who knows what attempt is being appreciated.
So by that kind of reasoning why not tack on some other city besides the ones named, and then another city and then another city? Perhaps because providing service in the way that is actually being done by DL and UA is presumed by airline management to make financial sense in that there is some foundation to believe that there are more customers willing to help pay for the airline's cost of servicing travel to/from the region by selecting the cities that actually were selected rather than doing it "simply because it can be"?
Last edited by GUWonder; Nov 6, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Nov 6, 2009, 4:40 pm
#47
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So by that kind of reasoning why not tack on some other city besides the ones named, and then another city and then another city? Perhaps because providing service in the way that is actually being done by DL and UA is presumed by airline management to make financial sense in that there is some foundation to believe that there are more customers willing to help pay for the airline's cost of servicing travel to/from the region by selecting the cities that actually were selected rather than doing it "simply because it can be"?
Nov 6, 2009, 4:53 pm
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The airlines could do more than one turn if that was wished for by the airline management, but it isn't.
Those cities weren't my best bets as that's not my game. But jumpy airline management bets as it bet, and that is its game.
Nov 6, 2009, 5:03 pm
#49
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Easy or not, the questions weren't answered.
The airlines could do more than one turn if that was wished for by the airline management, but they weren't.
Those cities weren't my best bets as that's not my game. But jumpy airline management bets as it bet, and that is its game.
The airlines could do more than one turn if that was wished for by the airline management, but they weren't.
Those cities weren't my best bets as that's not my game. But jumpy airline management bets as it bet, and that is its game.
So, yeah, airline management didn't wish to send a 777 from town to town picking up passengers. Thanks for the insightful contribution. Seriously. You are an asset to FT. I honestly have no idea what we would do without you. Who here would have thought that an airline made a conscious decision to fly an airplane from the US to Africa and back in a reasonable amount of time? Gee, all of us here were wondering why they didn't just leave the plane in Africa for a week picking up passengers. Gosh, you are so smart. Thanks for enlightening us. Really, exceedingly helpful. Wow, how do you keep all this knowledge in your head. Again, thanks for your help.
Nov 6, 2009, 5:11 pm
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Well, they could probably just send the plane all around Africa if they wanted. Or they could try and turn the plane around in a reasonable amount of time to bring it back to the US. Decisions, decisions...
So, yeah, airline management didn't wish to send a 777 from town to town picking up passengers. Thanks for the insightful contribution. Seriously. You are an asset to FT. I honestly have no idea what we would do without you. Who here would have thought that an airline made a conscious decision to fly an airplane from the US to Africa and back in a reasonable amount of time? Gee, all of us here were wondering why they didn't just leave the plane in Africa for a week picking up passengers. Gosh, you are so smart. Thanks for enlightening us. Really, exceedingly helpful. Wow, how do you keep all this knowledge in your head. Again, thanks for your help.
So, yeah, airline management didn't wish to send a 777 from town to town picking up passengers. Thanks for the insightful contribution. Seriously. You are an asset to FT. I honestly have no idea what we would do without you. Who here would have thought that an airline made a conscious decision to fly an airplane from the US to Africa and back in a reasonable amount of time? Gee, all of us here were wondering why they didn't just leave the plane in Africa for a week picking up passengers. Gosh, you are so smart. Thanks for enlightening us. Really, exceedingly helpful. Wow, how do you keep all this knowledge in your head. Again, thanks for your help.
Originally Posted by pbarnette
It is tacked on simply because it can be, so why not?
Nov 6, 2009, 5:13 pm
#52
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The per capita income in Ghana, for example, is below $1000 (far below, but we won't go there). Now, there may be a lot of economic growth going on, but economic growth don't buy airplane tickets. Now, you were complaining about the expense of tickets from Africa, right? Well, assume that the introduction of UA service chops prices to $250 round-trip, which is absurd. That would still mean that the average Ghanian could not afford to go to the US.
But hey, let's assume that the income distribution is heavily weighted toward the rich in Ghana. At best, then, we would end up with a population of 12,000 people with an income over $100k in Accra. That assumes that everyone else in the city has zero income. You see, now, where the comparison to Burlington, VT comes in?
Again, if this makes me a bad person, then I am a bad person.
Nov 6, 2009, 5:38 pm
#53
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Really? In what way? What have I said that is incorrect?
The per capita income in Ghana, for example, is below $1000 (far below, but we won't go there). Now, there may be a lot of economic growth going on, but economic growth don't buy airplane tickets. Now, you were complaining about the expense of tickets from Africa, right? Well, assume that the introduction of UA service chops prices to $250 round-trip, which is absurd. That would still mean that the average Ghanian could not afford to go to the US.
But hey, let's assume that the income distribution is heavily weighted toward the rich in Ghana. At best, then, we would end up with a population of 12,000 people with an income over $100k in Accra. That assumes that everyone else in the city has zero income. You see, now, where the comparison to Burlington, VT comes in?
Again, if this makes me a bad person, then I am a bad person.
The per capita income in Ghana, for example, is below $1000 (far below, but we won't go there). Now, there may be a lot of economic growth going on, but economic growth don't buy airplane tickets. Now, you were complaining about the expense of tickets from Africa, right? Well, assume that the introduction of UA service chops prices to $250 round-trip, which is absurd. That would still mean that the average Ghanian could not afford to go to the US.
But hey, let's assume that the income distribution is heavily weighted toward the rich in Ghana. At best, then, we would end up with a population of 12,000 people with an income over $100k in Accra. That assumes that everyone else in the city has zero income. You see, now, where the comparison to Burlington, VT comes in?
Again, if this makes me a bad person, then I am a bad person.
Accra isn't even 10% of Ghana, so tailoring numbers to just Accra using made up scenarios with no basis in reality also makes no sense unless part of smoke and mirrors displays.
Given the large plurality of customers for a UA flight to Ghana or Nigeria will be people of West African origins who are making money in the US or have access to money from the US, I don't see what average per capita income or exaggerated (implied Gini coefficient) income distribution calculations have to do with reality of who pays for the service.
If DL was doing this instead of UA, would that be all rose petals?
Nov 7, 2009, 3:40 am
#54
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Really? In what way? What have I said that is incorrect?
The per capita income in Ghana, for example, is below $1000 (far below, but we won't go there). Now, there may be a lot of economic growth going on, but economic growth don't buy airplane tickets. Now, you were complaining about the expense of tickets from Africa, right? Well, assume that the introduction of UA service chops prices to $250 round-trip, which is absurd. That would still mean that the average Ghanian could not afford to go to the US.
But hey, let's assume that the income distribution is heavily weighted toward the rich in Ghana. At best, then, we would end up with a population of 12,000 people with an income over $100k in Accra. That assumes that everyone else in the city has zero income. You see, now, where the comparison to Burlington, VT comes in?
Again, if this makes me a bad person, then I am a bad person.
The per capita income in Ghana, for example, is below $1000 (far below, but we won't go there). Now, there may be a lot of economic growth going on, but economic growth don't buy airplane tickets. Now, you were complaining about the expense of tickets from Africa, right? Well, assume that the introduction of UA service chops prices to $250 round-trip, which is absurd. That would still mean that the average Ghanian could not afford to go to the US.
But hey, let's assume that the income distribution is heavily weighted toward the rich in Ghana. At best, then, we would end up with a population of 12,000 people with an income over $100k in Accra. That assumes that everyone else in the city has zero income. You see, now, where the comparison to Burlington, VT comes in?
Again, if this makes me a bad person, then I am a bad person.
With regards to the USA, the traffic to/from Ghana is approximately 200,000 pax per year and generated passenger revenue of approximately $152m in 2008. Of these pax, about 40% originate from the New York catchment area and 25% from the Washington/Baltimore catchment area. There is considerable overlap between these areas due to ground transport and existing links, so in reality the two catchment areas could be considered essentially equivalent. After these two behemoths, you start seeing a considerably lesser second tier of Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Los Angeles, Dallas at between 3-5% each and then lower tiers that generate fractions of a percentage point of the total market. Totally 271 different originating points in the USA generated passengers to Accra in 2008, ranging from 64,489 at New York JFK to the solo travelers from Butte, Montana and Pocatello, Idaho respectively. Even Burlington, Vermont generated 109 passengers traveling to Accra during 2008.
Traffic and yields to/from Ghana are largely skewed by seasonal demands. Yields from the USA average 16c/RSM over the year, with directional yields as high as 25c/RSM at periods of peak demand during school holidays dropping to around 12.5c/RSM in low demand periods (Feb/May/Oct). These are remarkably high numbers for an international longhaul route and have not seen significant yield dilution in recent years. Furthermore, traffic to/from Ghana has been flat on a year-on-year basis, which may not seem exciting except for the fact that United is probably seeing 10-15% demand contraction on most other routes.
Certainly, one can chose to compare Accra's air transport market to that of Burlington, but I think Burlington needs to add nonstop longhaul service to Heathrow, Gatwick, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Rome, Casablanca, Tripoli, Cairo, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Dubai and Addis Ababa before it can be considered in the same league. And no, your analysis doesn't make you a bad person, just slightly misguided and ill-informed.
Nov 7, 2009, 9:54 am
#56
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I don't doubt that you know more about this market than I do. Heck, you seem to know a lot, but the numbers are not as overwhelming as they might first appear, and are not as overwhelming as you presented them to be. Comparing it to BTV may be a little much, though, I'll admit.
Last edited by pbarnette; Nov 7, 2009 at 10:01 am
Nov 7, 2009, 10:04 am
#57
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I think that UA was afraid the numbers might not work serving either one alone, so it decided to launch to both. The fact that both markets are fairly high yield (according to prevailing perceptions) and very close together made this easier to consider, I would think.
Moreover, there is the widely held perception that security risks and costs are terrible in Lagos, so by limiting the ground time there (and avoiding crew stays overnight), those risks and expenses are minimized. Basically, all of the fueling and crew housing will take place in Ghana. I am a little surprised that the ground time in Lagos will be around 5 hours (I would have thought it would be a quick turn), but perhaps the later departure was preferred.
For years, airlines have operated tags GRU-GIG (partly because of route authority restrictions) and somehow made money, so I don't think the tag itself should be considered that exceptionally strange.
Moreover, there is the widely held perception that security risks and costs are terrible in Lagos, so by limiting the ground time there (and avoiding crew stays overnight), those risks and expenses are minimized. Basically, all of the fueling and crew housing will take place in Ghana. I am a little surprised that the ground time in Lagos will be around 5 hours (I would have thought it would be a quick turn), but perhaps the later departure was preferred.
For years, airlines have operated tags GRU-GIG (partly because of route authority restrictions) and somehow made money, so I don't think the tag itself should be considered that exceptionally strange.
Nov 7, 2009, 11:48 am
#58
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"Say you are one them"
Scam emails are now origininating from eastern europe, india and latin america as well...being scammed by a Nigerian is soo 2000 & Late!!!
BTW - dont you love it that the American TV audience will be joining Anderson Cooper (CNN's AC 360) & Oprah Winfrey on Monday night to celebrate a Nigerian Author and his NY Best seller compilation of short stories "Say you are one of Them"....
Great stories!!!!
Nov 7, 2009, 11:57 am
#59
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soo much cost reduction that still leads to bankruptcy....smh!
I think that UA was afraid the numbers might not work serving either one alone, so it decided to launch to both. The fact that both markets are fairly high yield (according to prevailing perceptions) and very close together made this easier to consider, I would think.
Moreover, there is the widely held perception that security risks and costs are terrible in Lagos, so by limiting the ground time there (and avoiding crew stays overnight), those risks and expenses are minimized. Basically, all of the fueling and crew housing will take place in Ghana. I am a little surprised that the ground time in Lagos will be around 5 hours (I would have thought it would be a quick turn), but perhaps the later departure was preferred.
For years, airlines have operated tags GRU-GIG (partly because of route authority restrictions) and somehow made money, so I don't think the tag itself should be considered that exceptionally strange.
Moreover, there is the widely held perception that security risks and costs are terrible in Lagos, so by limiting the ground time there (and avoiding crew stays overnight), those risks and expenses are minimized. Basically, all of the fueling and crew housing will take place in Ghana. I am a little surprised that the ground time in Lagos will be around 5 hours (I would have thought it would be a quick turn), but perhaps the later departure was preferred.
For years, airlines have operated tags GRU-GIG (partly because of route authority restrictions) and somehow made money, so I don't think the tag itself should be considered that exceptionally strange.
Security risks and costs?? give me a break!!! European and Arab Airline crews sleep overnight in Nigeria....Geez!! not everyone is out to kidnap/terrorize an american....I have stayed at crew hotels in Lagos and some airlines have their own crew apartments in Lagos & Abuja as well.
Isnt it a shame that UA wants to make money off nigerians but is not willing to invest in the Nigerian economy......
.....I may have to call the Nigerian Aviation Minister on this matter, He sure knows how to cause drama with these American Airlines.....lol!!!!
Nov 7, 2009, 12:18 pm
#60
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Burlington, VT??? Really????
Ummm... For the most part, yea. I appreciate your attempts to make this into some sort of referendum on DL management's knowledge of Africa or my knowledge of Africa, but I could care less. The reality is that the residents of Accra have the purchasing power of some place like Burlington, VT. I know that makes me a bad person, but what can I do?
You are quite psycho to think that the Accra route was reserved solely for passengers from that Accra alone. Accra is the capital city in Ghana and the major international airport. Just like assuming all passengers on an LAX-SYD flight are from the LA area...geez!!! get informed dude or dudette, whichever one you......
Where is Vermont actually? Is that in Canada?
How the Ghanaian passengers plan to pay their airfare is nunya.....the reported average income is only statistics from God knows when and where.....I have been in ACC and folks spend cash/money and not CREDIT like some they do Vermont.Pbarnette - another one of the "ugly americans" as they say are called in europe......FAIL!!