Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Jun 16, 2020, 3:16 pm
#3151
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
If young people are prevented from working (either directly by business shutdowns or indirectly by low demand), then the vulnerable population is going to have a tough time ahead with insufficient tax revenue that supports them.
Quarantining everyone is stupid and it needs to stop.
Quarantining everyone is stupid and it needs to stop.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:18 pm
#3152
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 28,170
There are at risk people in all age groups. Isolating 65+ isn't the answer. How many hard working 30 somethings have high blood pressure or are overweight or have other issues that place them in the higher risk groups? In the U.S. that number is substantially greater than zero.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:21 pm
#3153
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
The vulnerable in society whether that vulnerability is medical, financial, mobility, societal etc. do have second class status in one way or another. People who are immunocompromised for example have to take steps to protect themselves that the rest of us do not. There needs to be a balance between protecting people and allowing those at lower risk to resume normal activities. Extreme positions on either end aren't viable over the longer term.
Trump and others have several times compared the fight against the pandemic to war. While not a solid analogy, one thing will definitely be the same -- "normal" will not happen until the pandemic is greatly lessened or mitigated, just as life during WWII did not return to normal until some time after the war ended. Get used to it.
Last edited by PaulMSN; Jun 16, 2020 at 3:27 pm
Jun 16, 2020, 3:28 pm
#3154
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: RNO
Programs: AA/DL/UA
Posts: 10,796
There are at risk people in all age groups. Isolating 65+ isn't the answer. How many hard working 30 somethings have high blood pressure or are overweight or have other issues that place them in the higher risk groups? In the U.S. that number is substantially greater than zero.
Some people here have been advocating total freedom from restrictions for months -- that is indeed an extreme position. Please show me who has advocated for continued total shutdown on this forum -- caution and careful easing is actually what many of us here, and the majority of Americans, support.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:39 pm
#3155
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,427
The moving goalposts. First we were told that we needed business shutdowns to flatten the curve. That was successfully completed many weeks ago. Then people who deny wanting forever shutdowns changed their tune to "caution and careful easing" and "but the virus is still around" as new excuses, knowing that originally arguing for forever shutdowns until the virus is eradicated from planet Earth would never be implemented. It makes me angry that we were lied to and still are lied to. If people can chant and dance in the streets by the thousands, then for crying out loud we can allow any business to open.
People aren't "chanting and dancing in the streets" for fun, I'm sure they'd all LOVE to not have a cause and could stay home instead.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:42 pm
#3156
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
"higher" than low risk, yes, but not such a high risk that they should stay home. It's those who are both elderly and have underlying health conditions (or not elderly and really bad underlying health conditions, something much worse than just high blood pressure) who would be advised to stay home.
The problem is the moving goalposts. First we were told that we needed business shutdowns to flatten the curve. That was successfully completed many weeks ago. Then people who deny wanting forever shutdowns changed their tune to "caution and careful easing" and "but the virus is still around" as new excuses, knowing that originally arguing for forever shutdowns until the virus is eradicated from planet Earth would never be implemented. It makes me angry that we were lied to and still are lied to. If people can chant and dance in the streets by the thousands, then for crying out loud we can allow any business to open.
The problem is the moving goalposts. First we were told that we needed business shutdowns to flatten the curve. That was successfully completed many weeks ago. Then people who deny wanting forever shutdowns changed their tune to "caution and careful easing" and "but the virus is still around" as new excuses, knowing that originally arguing for forever shutdowns until the virus is eradicated from planet Earth would never be implemented. It makes me angry that we were lied to and still are lied to. If people can chant and dance in the streets by the thousands, then for crying out loud we can allow any business to open.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:43 pm
#3157
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
Duplicate.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:43 pm
#3158
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 28,170
People have told you many, MANY times on this forum that just because you misunderstood what flatten the curve meant in the first place doesn't mean there are moving goalposts.
People aren't "chanting and dancing in the streets" for fun, I'm sure they'd all LOVE to not have a cause and could stay home instead.
People aren't "chanting and dancing in the streets" for fun, I'm sure they'd all LOVE to not have a cause and could stay home instead.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:49 pm
#3159
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,427
Protests and mass gatherings without masks to demand haircuts? Eh.
Protests and mass gatherings with masks to demand not getting killed by police? I'd argue justified, others might disagree.
It's all about priorities.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:54 pm
#3160
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
Nope, nothing I wrote comes close to implying that, and you know that. I advocate doing what is necessary to save lives, and support a gradual and careful opening up where it practical without endangering lives. Your "essentially at no risk" is both irrelevant and false -- young people do occasionally die, and some will have health repercussions for the rest of their lives, but that doesn't matter -- people should do what is necessary to protect others, even if it causes some personal inconvenience. Selfishness is not a good basis for responding to a pandemic.
The global economy won't be destroyed -- trade has continued throughout the pandemic, though at lesser levels, even in many countries that have otherwise closed their borders. Chicken Little claims are not persuasive -- the world survived the Great Depression, which lasted for years -- less than four months is the blink of an eye. Note that the stock market rose over 500 points today -- people who know a lot more about money than you or me clearly don't believe your cries of calamity.
The global economy won't be destroyed -- trade has continued throughout the pandemic, though at lesser levels, even in many countries that have otherwise closed their borders. Chicken Little claims are not persuasive -- the world survived the Great Depression, which lasted for years -- less than four months is the blink of an eye. Note that the stock market rose over 500 points today -- people who know a lot more about money than you or me clearly don't believe your cries of calamity.
Jun 16, 2020, 3:56 pm
#3161
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
So for three months, NOPE can't go to work can't go see friends and family it's ESSENTIAL everyone stays home all the time! If you don't stay home you are a murderer! Oh wait, you want to go burn down major metros and loot stores? Sure, gather by the 10s of thousands, that's chill. Sure you can't go to a store to buy a product because you aren't allowed out of your house and the store isn't allowed to open, but if you want to "protest" then smash into the store and steal the product, that's ok. Very sensible way for us to live our lives and combat the virus.
Jun 16, 2020, 4:06 pm
#3162
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 28,170
There are plenty of views on both the bull and the bear side. I would love to see the DOW back at 29k, but that doesn't change the fact that the Fed has largely propped this up with stimulus that is going to have an inflationary effect on the dollar and unemployment is still like 13%. That isn't going to change until things open up and people go back to work. Beyond that, the longer we stay closed, the more long term damage is going to be done. Sure some young people may die, some healthy young people die of the common cold also. At some point you have to look at it from a coldly statistical perspective, toss out anecdotal stories and see what the most rational path forwards is. With the data we have now on the IFR, my opinion is that allowing healthy people under 65 to resume normal life (as close as can be expected) while safe guarding at risk populations both saves us from another 1930s style depression, and takes reasonable care as to the health of the populace. There is no scenario in which everyone is 100% safe at all times, life is inherently dangerous.
Gender:
- Male — 160
- Female — 169
- 0-9 — 16
- 10-19 — 23
- 20-29 — 54
- 30-39 — 71
- 40-49 — 73
- 50-59 — 52
- 60-64 — 21
- 65-69 — 8
- 70-74 — 2
- 75-79 — 5
- 80+ — 4
Jun 16, 2020, 4:07 pm
#3163
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
In my local area age and distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases as of yesterday. There are two confirmed and one possible deaths. Not sure how isolating 65+ would impact this.Gender:
- Male — 160
- Female — 169
- 0-9 — 16
- 10-19 — 23
- 20-29 — 54
- 30-39 — 71
- 40-49 — 73
- 50-59 — 52
- 60-64 — 21
- 65-69 — 8
- 70-74 — 2
- 75-79 — 5
- 80+ — 4
Jun 16, 2020, 4:18 pm
#3164
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
There are plenty of views on both the bull and the bear side. I would love to see the DOW back at 29k, but that doesn't change the fact that the Fed has largely propped this up with stimulus that is going to have an inflationary effect on the dollar and unemployment is still like 13%. That isn't going to change until things open up and people go back to work. Beyond that, the longer we stay closed, the more long term damage is going to be done. Sure some young people may die, some healthy young people die of the common cold also. At some point you have to look at it from a coldly statistical perspective, toss out anecdotal stories and see what the most rational path forwards is. With the data we have now on the IFR, my opinion is that allowing healthy people under 65 to resume normal life (as close as can be expected) while safe guarding at risk populations both saves us from another 1930s style depression, and takes reasonable care as to the health of the populace. There is no scenario in which everyone is 100% safe at all times, life is inherently dangerous.
No, you actually don't have to look at it from a "coldly statistical perspective". That's only necessary for those who want to open up at all costs.
The most rational path is to save lives. Saying "life is inherently dangerous" is not and has never been a logical and rational argument.
Jun 16, 2020, 4:20 pm
#3165
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Madison, WI, USA
Posts: 14,162
Confirmed cases is a worthless statistic when a high % are asymptomatic to mild. Especially as to the asymptomatic, as the newest (who knows how long this guidance will be good for) info from the healthcare pros say it's extremely difficult to spread the virus if you aren't symptomatic.