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Old Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
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In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.

All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.

Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.

This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.

•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.

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•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.

•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,

your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.








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Old May 1, 2020, 1:14 am
  #2686  
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Originally Posted by wco81
Manhattan with all those high rise apt. Buildings is less dense than Queens or Brooklyn?
Density is usually a measure of people per square mile. That's different than concentration of people living in the same unit or crowding - i.e. breathing the same air. Manhattan may have more high rises, but fewer people per capita are living together as compared to Brooklyn and Queens. At least, those are the numbers I've seen.
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Old May 1, 2020, 1:18 am
  #2687  
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Here is a rough idea of the scale of population density differences by borough in NYC:

Manhattan 72,000 persons/square unit
Brooklyn 37,000 persons/square unit
The Bronx 34,000 persons/square unit
Queens 21,000 persons/square unit
Staten Island 8,000 persons/square unit

But keep in mind that the richer parts within each of these boroughs has probably been hit differently than the poorer parts within the same borough.

Population density is not the same thing as how many people share a residential accommodation together.

Last edited by GUWonder; May 1, 2020 at 1:24 am
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Old May 1, 2020, 1:24 am
  #2688  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
Here is a rough idea of the scale of population density differences by borough in NYC:

Manhattan 72,000 persons/square unit
Brooklyn 37,000 persons/square unit
The Bronx 34,000 persons/square unit
Queens 21,000 persons/square unit
Staten Island 8,000 persons/square unit

But keep in mind that the richer parts within each of these boroughs has probably been hit differently than the poorer parts within the same borough.

Population density is not the same thing as housing density.
That points to what I suggested before. Less people able to work at home and more people using public transportation outside of Manhattan.
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Old May 1, 2020, 2:50 am
  #2689  
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Vietnam has not had any new COVID-19 cases for six days, and no cases of community transmission for 15 days. The count remains at 270 total cases, no deaths and 51 active cases, including 12 relapses. That last concerned me a bit, but I read that researchers in Korea, which has had many more of these relapses, say that the tests are detecting dead bits of the virus still floating around in the lung tissues, and the tests do not indicate reinfection or a flare-up of a previous infection. None of the relapsed patients here have shown any symptoms, but they nevertheless have been put back in quarantine along with those they had contact with while in self-quarantine. That's how thorough the system is here.

Last edited by PaulMSN; May 1, 2020 at 3:01 am
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Old May 1, 2020, 4:36 am
  #2690  
 
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Originally Posted by Loren Pechtel
Why do you think the control groups aren't adequate to distinguish this?
Generally speaking, you want 2-4 times as many controls compared to the treatment group. Or, a matched control group 1 to 1, and matched with co-morbidities as closely as possible. You can have fewer controls, but it weakens the power of the study. Anything over 5 controls per case is generally thought to be inefficient. The statistics people can go on for hours on this subject. I usually zone out. But most folks treating people are going with uncontrolled/poorly controlled studies and hoping for the best.

https://www.researchgate.net/post/ca..._control_study

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23910956

Another example of publications coming out without a comprehensive review is this. If you look at the received and accepted date, its the same, April 15. This is a review paper of the thromboembolic problems of COVID patients by a very well known group of authors. The problem is, they completely left out commentary on using TEG on patients (thromboelastogram), which most providers consider state of the art on clotting disorders, either clotting too much or not enough.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...087?via%3Dihub

Two days later, April 17, this study on TEG came out from Italy. However, they both say the same thing, C19 patients are very hypercoagulable.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32302438
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Old May 1, 2020, 6:57 am
  #2691  
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Originally Posted by GadgetFreak
After weeks of lockdown cases are finally decreasing mostly. So I doubt people jogging in Central Park had or are having much of an impact. I’m guessing it has far more to do with the percentage of people who can’t work at home and have to take mass transit than anything.
That was my point. So why are people in such a huff about seeing folks go to the beach in Florida and CA? How is that different than going to the park?
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Old May 1, 2020, 7:25 am
  #2692  
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Originally Posted by stimpy
That was my point. So why are people in such a huff about seeing folks go to the beach in Florida and CA? How is that different than going to the park?
Well, one is because in California I think they were closed. I also don’t think as many were wearing masks on the beach. Lastly time of exposure matters. Laying stationary on the beach means you may be around someone for much longer than walking by.
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Old May 1, 2020, 7:37 am
  #2693  
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Originally Posted by GadgetFreak
Well, one is because in California I think they were closed. I also don’t think as many were wearing masks on the beach. Lastly time of exposure matters. Laying stationary on the beach means you may be around someone for much longer than walking by.
Nope, only LA and SD beaches are closed in So Cal. Just to the north and south of LA they have been open. And busy. The TV news shots were from an angle that made them appear that everyone was clustered together. Because that is what TV news does. And no of course people aren't wearing masks when they are keeping their physical distance from others. And very few of the Central Park joggers are wearing masks, for that reason and for easier respiration.
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Old May 1, 2020, 10:54 am
  #2694  
 
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Possible temperature screening and refund policies

https://thepointsguy.com/news/paine-field-everett-passenger-temperature-checks/

So, I'm scratching my head at the implications here: Setting aside present circumstances and relative refund/voucher flexibility, I am trying to figure out both how this is likely to interact with airline refund policies (and consumer laws) if the airline denies boarding, how it differs if the airport denies entry, and how all of this will likely play with travel insurance (e.g. will TI even cover this?).
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Old May 1, 2020, 11:11 am
  #2695  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
Here is a rough idea of the scale of population density differences by borough in NYC:

Manhattan 72,000 persons/square unit
Brooklyn 37,000 persons/square unit
The Bronx 34,000 persons/square unit
Queens 21,000 persons/square unit
Staten Island 8,000 persons/square unit

But keep in mind that the richer parts within each of these boroughs has probably been hit differently than the poorer parts within the same borough.

Population density is not the same thing as how many people share a residential accommodation together.
Originally Posted by GadgetFreak
That points to what I suggested before. Less people able to work at home and more people using public transportation outside of Manhattan.
I've heard Queens and Brooklyn are hit hard, particularly ethnic minorities.

So those people may still have to take the trains into Manhattan to work.

Maybe they're also living like more than one immediate family to an apt. or a house.
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Old May 1, 2020, 12:54 pm
  #2696  
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Originally Posted by wco81
I've heard Queens and Brooklyn are hit hard, particularly ethnic minorities.

So those people may still have to take the trains into Manhattan to work.

Maybe they're also living like more than one immediate family to an apt. or a house.
In Queens and Brooklyn there seems to be a lot more, frequent intergenerational living and other such exposure inside homes than there is in much of Manhattan. Could it be that people living in Manhattan tended to be somewhat less likely to be obese than people in the other boroughs, and therefore Manhattan dwellers tend to have less lifestyle-related underlying health problems as a factor in this virus situation than those dwelling in the outer boroughs?
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Old May 1, 2020, 1:15 pm
  #2697  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
In Queens and Brooklyn there seems to be a lot more, frequent intergenerational living and other such exposure inside homes than there is in much of Manhattan. Could it be that people living in Manhattan tended to be somewhat less likely to be obese than people in the other boroughs, and therefore Manhattan dwellers tend to have less lifestyle-related underlying health problems as a factor in this virus situation than those dwelling in the outer boroughs?

Possibly but I suspect it is also because there are a lot more people that can work at home or walk to work in Manhattan and more people who have essential jobs they need to do at some site and have to ride mass transit to get to it. Staten Island has a lot of cases per person and again, I think that is due to essential workers taking mass transit.
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Old May 1, 2020, 2:52 pm
  #2698  
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
In Queens and Brooklyn there seems to be a lot more, frequent intergenerational living and other such exposure inside homes than there is in much of Manhattan. Could it be that people living in Manhattan tended to be somewhat less likely to be obese than people in the other boroughs, and therefore Manhattan dwellers tend to have less lifestyle-related underlying health problems as a factor in this virus situation than those dwelling in the outer boroughs?
We have a website that shows the cases per borough and other stats. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

When you talk about Manhattan demographics, don't forget that Harlem is part of Manhattan. Downtown is different from mid town which is different from the upper east and west sides which is different from Harlem which is different from Washington Heights, etc. You can't really generalize about Manhattan.
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Old May 1, 2020, 5:12 pm
  #2699  
 
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So, just me pounding on the WHO to emphasize why I think they underperformed, And not just about masks

global health emergency Jan 30

Pandemic March 11

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/who-...intervene.html

yet on March 10 they said the risk was very high...

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=55e904fb_2

So, going forward, look at what they say, but don't think it is the be all, end all of knowledge.
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Old May 1, 2020, 6:05 pm
  #2700  
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Link from HK C19 thread:


Graphics of how HK compares.

https://multimedia.scmp.com/infograp...box=1588295676

Very high population density yet it's done much better than Western nations which have lower density.
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