J. : That's is an awesome upgrade percentage, but, again, you're an IAH-based elite.

I wonder how many EWR-based plats have had that kind of upgrade success...

I fly almost exclusively internationally, so my domestic flights consist of CLE-EWR and EWR-CLE... so far I've never been upgraded on my most common segment.

However in June I was upgraded from CLE-LAS and back along with a companion. (As Gold)

So, I'm probably 2/20 (2 out of 20 eligible segments)

I dare say I see a pattern developing:

1. IAH upgrades good

2. CLE upgrades good

3. EWR upgrades bad

Well... if we really want to get into detailed analysis, I have a very detailed spreadsheet going back to 2005 of every CO and NW upgrade-eligible flight, including date, flight number, equipment, number of first class seats, if I was upgrade or not, and if I was upgraded, how far in advance of the flight I was upgraded. In fact, I've shared this spreadsheet with another FT'er who is working on a database and program that might help predict which flights have better upgrade chances.

As for transcons out of EWR, I've only had two, and was upgraded on both. One was EWR-PDX as a Silver in October 2005 on a Saturday evening -- on a 757-200 with 24 F seats, about half of which were empty. The other was in September of this year on the special EWR-SEA 777 flight, which I know is an unusual flight.

The overwhelming number of my 2006 and 2007 EUAs were on flights between two SkyTeam hubs, such as IAH-MSP, IAH-ATL, and IAH-DTW; all flights between large markets that tend to run full, and have a lot of elites. It's really the IAH-EWR flights that bring my percentage for the last two years down.

I do understand the pain of those elites who never get upgraded, or go long streaks without being upgraded. I'd be pretty upset too if I went even 10 consecutive flights without a single upgrade, especially if I wasn't in the exit row. CO's standard Y configuration is brutal for my 6'5" tall body. But I think it's very short-sighted to say that the only elite upgrades that happen are on flights to smaller destinations, like IAH-IND and IAH-BTR, when there are elites getting upgraded on a very regular basis on popular, elite-heavy routes, including hub-hub flights.

And I agree that upgrades appear to be easier on many routes out of IAH than they are out of EWR.

With respect to picking flights...that's what I was trying to get at with a little background information. I'd have no sympathy for an Elite that is 0 for double digits on upgrades but continuously book flights with seemingly little chance of an upgrade, or routinely in a low fare class on aircraft with no chance of upgrade. For instance when the 753's had the worst EUA chances in the fleet with their small F class cabin you seriously couldn't expect an EUA, unless you were on a high class fare.

My travel has all been to RJ-served little towns in the Midwest or the South. I'm based in SFO So I always start with CO SFO-IAH or NW SFO-DTW/MSP

SFO-IAH: no, never, 0%, not on a Sunday afternoon or Monday afternoon. Zip.
IAH-SFO: 100% Always battlefield, always clears, at least on the 9.10pm flight

Whereas on NW I was getting upgrade to DTW as a Silver on occasion, as a Plat its almost certain.

It's interesting to note that it is EWR that brings your upgrade percentage down...the pattern continues.

Yes, although the only missed upgrades to/from EWR in the last two years were to/from IAH. I've found that route to be highly unpredictable. I've got instances of the same flight, same day of the week, same time of day, same equipment, where I have upgrades that came 5 days out, the day before, battlefield, and no upgrade at all -- and there is really no pattern to it. The only reason I really don't complain about missed IAH-EWR upgrades is that they are pretty much all on 767s, and I've almost always had a bulkhead seat in the mini-Y cabin right behind BF.

Most of my EWR connections are on COEX, so that makes it difficult for me to provide any real data for upgrades out of EWR, other than to IAH.

That's fair enoungh. But a lot of us at EWR have had no upgrades to anywhere from EWR...whether to IAH, transcon or elsewhere...

On domestic mainline flights: 100%, all Y-ups. Completely given up on EUAs.

International: Purchased Js.

One thing that should be noted is that if upgrades are hard to come by, and it's because of Y-ups, and people buying F seats it means a better financial statement for CO. In the end leading to enchancements. Would you rather have better upgrade rates and have CO turn into US?

Those two items are not mutually exclusive.

I suspect - and have stated here before - the biggest eroder of EUA's was DL simplifares move. Doing so not only initiated the Z (and now R) fares but also dropped the Y-UPs in many markets. (Although I will admit to the latter charge the LCCs have done their fare share too of driving down prices.)

I think the majority of Plat travelers are profitable -- just like the majority of full Y or R/Z customers.

I also think it's a win-win(-win..for anyone who keeps up with the office ) for CO to offer a domestic F product people will pay for.

However as it has been hashed out time and time again here - CO needs a way to increase F inventory on key routes. Arguably they seem to be trying to do this (2+ seats in 738's & 739's, more 739's for transcons) yet still the problem of not being able to meet paid demand exists.

Obviously certain days, flights and times stand a good chance of always selling out but still I think there are various moves which CO can begin to implement now to relive the F cabin crunch.

At the top of this list is increasing the mid-lav 738 fleet to help augment high F demand routes. If putting in a new lav into the 738 makes this cost prohibitive than remove a row of Y and add a row of F...but this is another thread within itself and does not focus on the topic for which this thread was created.

Back on topic: I would assume Y-UPs - like R fares - have become more popular as the once high price barrier has fallen considerably and thus more F inventory is being sold albeit at cheaper prices. Hence upgrades become harder - especially in a market where people will be predisposed to buying F/YUPs to begin with (such as EWR) netting anemic EUA rates.

I'm 14/25 this year on lowest fare, booked far in advance transcons. I'm based in EWR.

I fly at inconvenient times. Evidently, less inconvenient for me than for others!

90% on revenue flight upgrades. 0% on VE0P07 upgrades. All via IAH.

I realize we have strayed far from the OP but the issue, to me, is not so much the number of consecutive flights I have not been upgraded but the erosion of the non-Y fare upgrade's existence.

This is my eighth year in a row as a PL and by far it is the worst year for EUAs. I am typing this from LAS where I travel to, from CLE, about four or five times a year and in the previous eight years, I only did not receive an EUA one time.

This year, this is the fourth time for no EUA and it is getting, IMHO, pretty ridiculous. What else do we have to show for as a PLAT if the "unlimited upgrades" are, in fact, pretty limited?

The consolation of an Exit Row with an almost guarantee of someone next to you in the middle seat is of little use.

I don't begrudge Continental from trying to maximize their revenue. However, I also want to maximize my comfort while flying and, at least this year, UA with Economy Plus has Continental beat hands down.

I think Continental needs to think long and hard about providing the Elites with some extra leg room in coach because if they don't, I think they are taking the short term revenue gain for a long term revenue loss.

With fewer and fewer EUAs, my dollars have walked towards UA and I am even starting to think (horrors!) that connecting through ORD on E+ is better than a non stop in coach on CO. Yikes!

Syzygies: So far you are the EWR-based passenger who has the highest upgrade percentage, 56%. Not bad, but it pales in comparison with J.Edward's 95% out if IAH...

CO is the victim of its own success at EWR, but it appears as if the FC inventory at this hub is relatively lower compared to the demand than at IAH or CLE.