Last name, IIRC.

channa knows for sure but I think that's the tie-breaker if the purchase date, fare class, time, etc. are the same.

That's it! I'm changing my name from Zygymond Zzyzzies to Aabbaa Aabbaab...

What a terrible tie-breaker! Think about one of those LAX transcon where 1 passenger receives EUA. Who gets it every time? Why, Mr. Aabbaab, of course.

That's just nor fair. There's got to be a more equitable mechanism, don't you think?

It turns out I did have 3 Y-Ups this year, but that doesn't skew my results all that much one way or the other. I actually had a 4th Y-up that was overbooked and I took a bump to DL, so that also is not included.

I am not going out of my way to buy expensive fares, and I think that my total CO spend is actually pretty reasonable. Here's my list of upgrade-eligible fares. I've excluded my CGN run as well as the one ERJ segment I have this year. The ones in italics also included a companion upgrade. The one MCO-EWR flight I didn't get I traded an upgrade for a window seat 2 hours earlier. Also, I had 4/6 upgrades on an L fare JFK-ANC (via IAH/SEA) last weekend, but I haven't updated my spreadsheet yet so those aren't reflected in the list.

S.

10/8/2007 CO XN/XN MCO-EWR
10/8/2007 CO XX/XX EWR-DAB
9/30/2007 CO XI/XI IAH-JFK
9/28/2007 CO XI/XI JFK-IAH
8/26/2007 CO XW/XW MSY-EWR
8/24/2007 CO W/W EWR-MSY
8/22/2007 CO XN/XN MCO-EWR
8/17/2007 CO XI/XI EWR-JAX
6/26/2007 CM XS/XS PTY-UIO
6/26/2007 CM XS/XS JFK-PTY
6/21/2007 CM XS/XS PTY-UIO
6/21/2007 CM XS/XS JFK-PTY
6/20/2007 CO AU/AU EWR-BOS
5/30/2007 CO XH/XH TPA-EWR
5/28/2007 CO XK/XK EWR-TPA
5/25/2007 CO XK/XK TPA-EWR
5/21/2007 CO XN/XN EWR-TPA
5/9/2007 CO AU/AU MCO-EWR
5/3/2007 CO XM/XM MCO-EWR
4/30/2007 CO XN/XN EWR-MCO
4/26/2007 CO XH/XH MCO-EWR
4/24/2007 CO XK/XK EWR-MCO
4/19/2007 CO XN/XN MCO-EWR
4/17/2007 CO XX/XX EWR-MCO
4/8/2007 CO XK/XK EWR-MCO
4/5/2007 CO XK/XK MCO-EWR
4/4/2007 CO XK/XK EWR-MCO
3/29/2007 CO XN/XN MCO-EWR
3/26/2007 CO XH/XH EWR-JAX
3/14/2007 CO AU/AU MCO-EWR
3/12/2007 CO XK/XK EWR-MCO
3/8/2007 CO U/U SEA-EWR
3/5/2007 CO XO/XO EWR-SEA
3/1/2007 CO U/Y MCO-EWR
2/27/2007 CO XU/XU EWR-MCO
2/21/2007 CO XH/XH MCO-EWR
2/20/2007 CO XU/XU EWR-MCO
2/16/2007 CO U/U EWR-ATL
1/7/2007 CO XU/XU ATL-EWR
1/5/2007 CO XU/XU EWR-ATL

Very impressive.

The rightful King of Newark is crowned, sbm12 the First (I know that's a little confusing but it sounds more kingly, don't you think?).

Not to get too personal, but do you have a last name that starts with one or more letters from the beginning of the alphabet?

Just wondering if a last name with a lot of A's and B's near the start of the word might confer you some advantage over a Mr. Zyzzyes...

Edited: Did you routinely buy your tickets well in advance?

Nope.

'Edward' is close enough to the start for a 95% rate!

However for this to be a tie breaker the fare(s) must be virtually identical...down to the time of purchase.

Not saying the computer will never get to this stage...but rather I suspect it is not as often as one would think.

OK, so time of purchase trumps name. Gotcha. So actually it's probably used pretty infrequently.

So early purchasers have an advantage, so presumably the 1 plat upgraded on an EWR-LAX bought a very expensive fare 9 months before his travel date.

My last name starts with an M, so I'm not winning that way. For the majority of my Florida trips the tickets were purchased no more than 2 weeks in advance. Only very few were purchased 2-3 days out. So on average it was 6-10 day advance purchase fares. The rest of the trips (IAH, UIO, ATL, ANC) were purchased 1-6 months in advance, but still on very low fares, and the flights that upgraded mostly came through at 5 days out. If anyone boutght their seats after I did they were probably buying a more expensive fare, so they would've received the upgrade ahead of me, assuming they were platinum. I'm sure I was lucky this year, and past performance is no indicator of future results, but this was a good year for me and proof that statistics only mean as much as you want them to, especially when evaluated in isolation and/or without all of the statistics available. I'm sure that CO could run a report on the number of EUA seats granted based on fare class purchased very quickly. I think that it would trend towards higher percentages on the higher pare buckets overall (I know I'd never get upgrades on the transcons or most mid-cons on an X fare), but the bottom of the scale isn't so small a collection of upgrades as to be a statistical anomoly either.

S.

Maybe you could distribute a limited edition sbm12 lucky charm and some of your mojo could rub off on the rest of us...

But seriously, you mention that it has been a "lucky year" but if the stated criteria for upgrades actually apply then luck should only play a very small part in your upgrades.

It does seem odd that, given the fact that you're buying low fares and not necessarily with much advance purchase, that your upgrade percentage is so much higher than the other EWR-based plats who have responded here.

After all, does it not seem likely that there are many other plats whose travel fits precisely the same pattern and yet they appear to be scoring a much lower rate of upgrades? What would you surmise the explanation is?

I certainly don't find it surprising that you are being upgraded (and I'm happy for you!), but the much higher percentage of upgrades seems inconsistent with the stated criteria regarding upgrades, given the fact that many of your fellow plats seem to be upgraded much less frequently.

The vast majority of my upgrades were between EWR and Florida in April/May/June, which is before most folks in 2007 had qualified for platinum, but after the 2005 qualifiers left the pool when their status expired, so that helps. Otherwise, I do think that a bit of it is blind luck that the flights I picked happened to not sell out in F, so I got a seat.

In 2006 I had only a 65% upgrade but my travel pattern was a bit more diverse (LAS, AUS, DCA, PHX). I started flying the DL Shuttle to deal with the DCA issue, and I actually was upgraded 2/4 flights on the LAS trips.

I do think that the destination pattern ultimately drives the success rate; I just don't work to plan around it and take it when it comes to me, resulting in a much less stressful travel experience.

Very well explained. Clearly the lowest upgrade rate out of EWR is on transcon, especially LAX and SFO. After that, most likely EWR-IAH comes next.

It's very possible that the FLA routes, especially those with a higher preponderance of 753's, will provide the most likely chance for an upgrade.

So the moral of the story is, if you want an upgrade, you better fly from April to June...

I am 8 for 8 without Platinum upgrades for my last CO flights.

Without platinum? Do you mean you are gold or silver? And what routes are you flying?

EWR (now London) based Platinum. During the year, I flew weekly on Y fares to/from either RDU or AUS or PHX and a few in BF to Europe or Asia, so I am going to exclude them from my analysis. I was able to Y-Up on all of these, save for a few cases where I stood by for earlier flights.

Here's my non-Y analysis:

EWR to LAS: No upgrades either way (but it was superbowl weekend) (cheap fare)
EWR to ORD: No upgrade either way on H fare.
EWR to Punta Cana: Return upgrade only (+ companion), although there was a problem on the outbound that COInsider resolved for me, so I should have had that one. (cheap fare)

So, that's 1 for 6 . . . wow, having looked at this thread and that, I'm a little disappointed!

I wouldn't be disappointed, I think your experience is far more the norm than what sbm12 has experienced...

Im Gold based out of IAH. I have been flying RJs more this year than ever before so my chances for upgrades have been limited. I have received 3 upgrades on the last 16 upgradeable flights. I am currently on a 0/11 streak in 2007. My wife is Silver and has not received an upgrade on any of the 8 CO upgradeable flights she's flown this year, but is 2 for 4 on NWA.