Well... if we really want to get into detailed analysis, I have a very detailed spreadsheet going back to 2005 of every CO and NW upgrade-eligible flight, including date, flight number, equipment, number of first class seats, if I was upgrade or not, and if I was upgraded, how far in advance of the flight I was upgraded. In fact, I've shared this spreadsheet with another FT'er who is working on a database and program that might help predict which flights have better upgrade chances.

As for transcons out of EWR, I've only had two, and was upgraded on both. One was EWR-PDX as a Silver in October 2005 on a Saturday evening -- on a 757-200 with 24 F seats, about half of which were empty. The other was in September of this year on the special EWR-SEA 777 flight, which I know is an unusual flight.

The overwhelming number of my 2006 and 2007 EUAs were on flights between two SkyTeam hubs, such as IAH-MSP, IAH-ATL, and IAH-DTW; all flights between large markets that tend to run full, and have a lot of elites. It's really the IAH-EWR flights that bring my percentage for the last two years down.

I do understand the pain of those elites who never get upgraded, or go long streaks without being upgraded. I'd be pretty upset too if I went even 10 consecutive flights without a single upgrade, especially if I wasn't in the exit row. CO's standard Y configuration is brutal for my 6'5" tall body. But I think it's very short-sighted to say that the only elite upgrades that happen are on flights to smaller destinations, like IAH-IND and IAH-BTR, when there are elites getting upgraded on a very regular basis on popular, elite-heavy routes, including hub-hub flights.

And I agree that upgrades appear to be easier on many routes out of IAH than they are out of EWR.