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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 5:30 pm
  #106  
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Redhead, I believe you will be OK on Friday. The storm is due to come ashore after dark on Friday and be in North Texas on Sat.

Thanks for the good wishes folks. This one has me really worried.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 6:17 pm
  #107  
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Ike still tracking NW

The 800# gorilla goes where he likes.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 6:20 pm
  #108  
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Originally Posted by oldpenny16
Redhead, I believe you will be OK on Friday. The storm is due to come ashore after dark on Friday and be in North Texas on Sat.

Thanks for the good wishes folks. This one has me really worried.
It would have me worried also...ya'll be safe!
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 6:22 pm
  #109  
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Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
Ike still tracking NW

The 800# gorilla goes where he likes.
He is tracking more NW - NNW than the models are predicting, if you look at today's visable IR loop.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 6:30 pm
  #110  
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Originally Posted by james318
He is tracking more NW - NNW than the models are predicting, if you look at today's visable IR loop.
Yeah....I'm wondering if the ridge of high pressure north of Ike has split in two. The cone of uncertainty.....or denial? This amateur is concerned about Louisiana.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 6:36 pm
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Last I saw, the Bermuda high was still in place and causing the track of Ike.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 6:56 pm
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Originally Posted by me4yankees
Last I saw, the Bermuda high was still in place and causing the track of Ike.
I THINK only a strong Bermuda High usually affects a storm this far west. It's possible, but its more probable that the ridge of high pressure over the US is steering this more.

Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
Yeah....I'm wondering if the ridge of high pressure north of Ike has split in two. The cone of uncertainty.....or denial? This amateur is concerned about Louisiana.
I am not concerned about NoLa. From Galvenston to just east of the border maybe... Certainly more than the models showed before.

Now I wait for SRQ Guy to give me all the reasons I am incorrect.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 7:39 pm
  #113  
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Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
Yeah....I'm wondering if the ridge of high pressure north of Ike has split in two. The cone of uncertainty.....or denial? This amateur is concerned about Louisiana.
Ike is traveling exactly along the short term NHC track. There is a weakness that has descended down from the midwest, causing Ike to travel to the NW today. The trough is pulling out, though, which will leave Ike traveling more westward tomorrow.

The NHC is very good with the 3 day cone. This is a Texas threat.

Further, you cannot use IR to reliably track motion. It doesn't translate well. Visible and radar work better.
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Old Sep 10, 2008 | 9:22 pm
  #114  
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Model projections continue to reset northward. Galveston now in the cross-hairs of Cat 3-4 right-front quadrant.
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Old Sep 11, 2008 | 5:42 am
  #115  
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Crown Weather Services - Tropical Weather Discussion - Sept. 11, 725 am EDT
.....Here is my thinking as of this morning: I agree wholeheartedly with the National Hurricane Center and am thinking that Ike will come ashore somewhere between San Antonio Bay and Galveston early Saturday morning around 5 am Eastern/4 am Central. This area is centered right on Matagorda and Brazoria Counties. I anticipate Ike to make landfall as a borderline Category 3-Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 to 140 mph. The forecast track of Ike is still somewhat uncertain and all interests along the entire Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall. Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and its effects will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico....

Maximum surge forecast:
Shoreline of Matagorda Bay: 15 to 20 feet.
Coastal areas from Matagorda to High Island, including the shores of Galveston Bay: 12 to 16 feet
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Old Sep 11, 2008 | 6:37 am
  #116  
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It is going to be very bad. There is no time for evacuation.
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Old Sep 11, 2008 | 6:39 am
  #117  
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Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
Model projections continue to reset northward. Galveston now in the cross-hairs of Cat 3-4 right-front quadrant.
That's normal behavior. The models, once "locked in", tend to creep rightward because they tend to overestimate the forward speed of storms.
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Old Sep 11, 2008 | 7:00 am
  #118  
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In a few minutes I'm heading out for my last major grocery shopping trip pre-storm. We have no idea how many people will be staying with us.

Nor how many pets!

It is so hard to come up with good ideas for non-perishable foods!
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Old Sep 11, 2008 | 7:03 am
  #119  
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Originally Posted by oldpenny16
It is so hard to come up with good ideas for non-perishable foods!
My hurricane survival kit is chock full of Campbell's Chunky Soup. I buy them when they're on sale. It's the perfect survival food: it's safe to eat uncooked if necessary, it's reasonably nutritious, and if you're really pressed a single can can be a small meal for two.
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Old Sep 11, 2008 | 7:09 am
  #120  
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Thanks for the idea. I'll buy plenty. Pull tab tops on cans I recall as well.

I'm thinking lots of bread, chips, peanut butter, cheese, and cookies.

We have huge ice chests that stay cold for days.

We have our own water to keep the plumbing going.

Dry food for the pets.

We have a nice propane grill but someone will have to stand in the rain to use it.
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