Hurricane Ike
#46
FlyerTalk Evangelist


Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: The Sunshine State
Programs: Deltaworst Peon Level, TSA "Layer 21 Club", NW WP RIP
Posts: 11,372
From Crown Weather (www.crownweather.com) Tropical Weather Discussion.... (edited)
Scenario 1 is that Ike misses the north coast of Cuba and tracks track to potentially impact the west coast of Florida late next week.
Scenario 2 is that Ike tracks across northern Cuba or perhaps even over the entire length of the island. With Scenario 2, a landfall somewhere. . . Louisiana Category 3 hurricane.
I am going to go out on a limb here, and state that I am personally leaning more towards Scenario 1.
Scenario 1 is that Ike misses the north coast of Cuba and tracks track to potentially impact the west coast of Florida late next week.
Scenario 2 is that Ike tracks across northern Cuba or perhaps even over the entire length of the island. With Scenario 2, a landfall somewhere. . . Louisiana Category 3 hurricane.
I am going to go out on a limb here, and state that I am personally leaning more towards Scenario 1.

Current track has Ike. . .heading. . . to. . .New. . .Or. . .Leans.

Comrade: "I don't want to evacuate again."
Mayor Ray: "Do you know how easy it is to govern a city with no residents? I sit here and still get paid while you rot in the un air conditioned Podunksville, Mississippi, High School Gym. With you all gone, the crime rate is zero and life is GOOOD. For me. Get out of my town!"
#47
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: TPA
Programs: Hilton Gold, DL DIrt Medallion
Posts: 38,267
#48




Join Date: May 2003
Location: Slightly to the left of center
Posts: 3,482
I tell ya, if Ike makes it into the gulf and if staying on present course toward Louisiana (still many days and revisions away), would be sad to see Louisiana officials go through the drill again: "this is the big one" "get out" "evaucate the city"
#49
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: TPA
Programs: Hilton Gold, DL DIrt Medallion
Posts: 38,267
) but IMHO this storm will be a Big Bend to Mobile threat. It really shouldn't make it far enough west to impact New Orleans. Of course, it shouldn't make it to the Gulf either.
#50
Original Poster




Join Date: Nov 1999
Programs: UA, DL, AA, Sutherlands Lumber
Posts: 7,665
#51
FlyerTalk Evangelist




Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Jupiter, FL
Programs: DL PM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Silver
Posts: 39,551
Can anyone find the latest computer model runs? There is usually one at 8am and is posted on Weather Underground. It is only posting the wind estimates and those are very, very low.
Is there another site that shows the models and has the latest posted?
Hate that NOAA took it off their site.
Is there another site that shows the models and has the latest posted?
Hate that NOAA took it off their site.
#52
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: FLL -> Where The Boyars Are
Programs: AA EXP 1.7 M, Hilton Gold, Hertz 5*, AARP Sophomore, 14-time Croix de Candlestick
Posts: 18,669
If you use the link in post #1 of this thread, models can be seen in pane #6 on the right hand side.
#53
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: TPA
Programs: Hilton Gold, DL DIrt Medallion
Posts: 38,267
#54
Original Poster




Join Date: Nov 1999
Programs: UA, DL, AA, Sutherlands Lumber
Posts: 7,665
#55
FlyerTalk Evangelist




Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Jupiter, FL
Programs: DL PM, Marriott Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Silver
Posts: 39,551
#56
FlyerTalk Evangelist


Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: The Sunshine State
Programs: Deltaworst Peon Level, TSA "Layer 21 Club", NW WP RIP
Posts: 11,372

11 AM NHS map: Ike is going to Houma, LA. To finish what is left of it.
Just checking department: question for Mayor Ray: Next Thursday, can your lips form the words "Evacuate!-this is the Storm of the Century"?
#57
Original Poster




Join Date: Nov 1999
Programs: UA, DL, AA, Sutherlands Lumber
Posts: 7,665
#58
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: west of DFW airport
Programs: AA LT Gold 1.9 MM flying my way to LT PLAT
Posts: 11,074
this is a huge risk!
For many families, this is too much to spend!
Many folks arrived at the shelters in North Texas without a penny to spare.
Will they evacuate again?
Likely not!
The election is loosing a lot of air time on tv with all these storms. I think that is a good thing.
#59
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Earth
Programs: Proud owner of 3 Mucci's (yes, 3!) the latest being Chevaliere des Bains Chauds, BA Silver (6 yrs)
Posts: 10,985
Great minds think alike coz that's how it greeted me too

Well my friends in FLL are now quite p..sed off. They spent all day yesterday putting up shutters and now it looks like they have to come down again.
Oh well, at least that's better than Ike showing his face (I guess that's what Tina thought after a few years of marriage too
)
#60




Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: MGM/ATL
Programs: DL, NW Silver Elite, Hilton
Posts: 2,344
While I certainly don't want NOLA and surrounding area hit again, please don't say that!! I've been worried about that scenario all morning!

