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Old Sep 5, 2008, 6:49 am
  #31  
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With the latest track, I am now officially concerned...

Fortunately, at the moment Ike seems to be falling apart. Unfortunately, he has plenty of time to restrengthen before landfall.
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 7:23 am
  #32  
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Originally Posted by SRQ Guy
With the latest track, I am now officially concerned...

Fortunately, at the moment Ike seems to be falling apart. Unfortunately, he has plenty of time to restrengthen before landfall.
Sadly, they accurately predicted that weakening and have said that the wind shear causing it will drop later today/tonight, allowing it to re-strengthen. Seems like it will hit wherever it is going as a Cat 4.
My hotel reservations in Naples is looking like a poor choice. Thankfully, I have other options further north.
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 9:21 pm
  #33  
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Bump.
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 9:39 pm
  #34  
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Well fortunately for us (not so much for those in the Keys or on the northern Gulf Coast) the models have all trended far west and show a major storm heading for the northern GOM.

What a crazy storm.

Sunday I have to decide whether or not to shutter up. If the trend continues, I won't.
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 9:48 pm
  #35  
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Ike got the mojo workin'
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 9:50 pm
  #36  
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Heck yeah he do. And I get to eat crow for my forecast earlier in this thread.
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 9:58 pm
  #37  
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Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
What did Johnny Unitas say?
"Expect the unexpected." This is one of those times. Let's be careful folks!
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Old Sep 5, 2008, 10:09 pm
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Just in case, I have made reservations near Jackson, MS for next weekend. The hotel is already almost sold out. This could be bad for LA as it would be hard for many to get the news as they don't have power yet.
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 2:33 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by SRQ Guy
Heck yeah he do. And I get to eat crow for my forecast earlier in this thread.
There's a first time for everything. To be honest, given the historic tracks, if it does thread the needle, it's an extremely unusual occurrence.

But of course, being extremely unusual could do interesting things to the models.

And if he manages to hit NOLA, it's just proof that NOLA has done something to upset god

Does look like we are getting Hanna - really, it's too kind, you shouldn't have bothered

Last edited by Jenbel; Sep 6, 2008 at 2:55 am
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 6:28 am
  #40  
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Originally Posted by Jenbel
Does look like we are getting Hanna - really, it's too kind, you shouldn't have bothered
You're welcome.

I was just thinking how funny it is that I was so worried abotu Ike, and now it appears that the eastern seaboard and yes, maybe even our friends in the UK will likely see more from Hanna than we will from Ike.

We're still in the "cone of terror", though, so I won't let my guard down.
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 6:44 am
  #41  
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From Crown Weather (www.crownweather.com) Tropical Weather Discussion....

There are two scenarios that may occur with Ike, and each are equally likely to happen:

Scenario 1 is that Ike turns to the west and misses the north coast of Cuba and tracks either through the Florida Straits or the lower Florida Keys as a upper end Category 3 to a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. After that, the extension of the ridge would erode allowing for a northwestward and then northerly track to potentially impact the west coast of Florida or the Florida Panhandle late next week.

Scenario 2 is that Ike tracks further south like the model guidance is trending towards and Ike tracks across northern Cuba or perhaps even over the entire length of the island. This track would knock the hurricane down from Category 3 or 4 strength to at most a Category 1 hurricane. After that, Ike would turn more northwestward and track through the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen slowly as its inner core could be severely disrupted by the island of Cuba. With Scenario 2, a landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Texas coast would be more possible late next week as a Category 2 or perhaps a Category 3 hurricane.

I am going to go out on a limb here, and state that I am personally leaning more towards Scenario 1. The reason for this is because the operational GFS model's depiction of the 500 mb height has not been deep enough with the trough of low pressure in the Midwest and also the heights at 500 millibars over the southwest Atlantic have been higher than what the GFS model has been depicting. So, it is conceivable that the building ridge of high pressure may allow Ike to initially move slightly farther south than progged as it approaches the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas. Later on, the timing of the first shortwave trough, combined with a deeper Ike, could briefly cause a northward component to the track, allowing Ike to just miss Cuba and track through the Florida Straits or the southern Florida Keys as potentially a very strong hurricane. The latest indications are that tropical storm force winds will begin affecting the Florida Keys as early as Monday night.

It should be noted that it is way, way too early to be sure where on the Gulf Coast Ike could make landfall. That landfall possibility highly depends on the track of Ike over the next 2 to 3 days. If Ike tracks through the Florida Straits or the Florida Keys, then a landfall near the Florida Panhandle or the west coast of Florida would be more likely. However, if Ike tracks across Cuba, then a landfall further west in the Gulf of Mexico, from Louisiana to the Texas coast would be more likely.
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 7:12 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by SRQ Guy
We're still in the "cone of terror", though, so I won't let my guard down.


I've never heard that before. I like it and am stealing it.

I think that unless things change dramatically, you will not have to put up shutters.
I just cancelled my evacuation hotel reservations. Turns out Naples and Tampa probably weren't the best selections anyway.
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 7:15 am
  #43  
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Originally Posted by pbiflyer


I've never heard that before. I like it and am stealing it.
You can use it to your heart's content. I heard it from someone else.

I think that unless things change dramatically, you will not have to put up shutters.
I'll decide tomorrow. The latest GFDL run brings the center a bit too close for comfort, though. We'll see what the NHC does at 11, then it's off to watch Georgia Tech.
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 7:22 am
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by Jenbel
Poor Bahamas - I hope everything is battered down
I think you mean battened, so to minimize the damage from Ike's battering.
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Old Sep 6, 2008, 7:28 am
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by pierre mclopez
From Crown Weather (www.crownweather.com) Tropical Weather Discussion....
Completely OT, but can anyone explain why, when I follow that link, does the site greet me by name?
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