If that 72.9% was evenly distributed (and is an accurate estimate), I would disagree with you because if R0 falls below 1, the virus should disappear. However, since the regional distribution presumably has a high standard deviation, I'm inclined to agree because we are still permitted to roam freely here (with some exceptions like Shenzhen). Of course, China could take all sorts of steps to effectively make vaccinations mandatory. That Y100/dose price tag might be cost prohibitive in poorer areas though (e.g. if the choice between visiting a fancy shopping all and feeding your family, many would opt for the latter).

AFAIK the 100rmb/jab price is the foreigner price. Chinese citizens get it for free.

And I continue to stand by my prediction of nothing opening up for at least a year if not more.

I suppose that makes sense; we can afford it, and they don't really seem to want us here anyway.

People are really having meltdowns in Guangdong now. Constantly talking about which area is “safe”

Is there any reason to believe I should get a Chinese vaccine before leaving back to the states in August? I’ll be applying for HDC to return to China again at the end of august or early Sep.

And is there any kind of working list of approved flights into China? Trying to strategize a bit but it’s difficult to know which cities are even a possibility to depart from.

I know that AA, DL, MU, and UA all fly from PVG. I went with AA and bought a hotel in DFW for the overnight layover. I don't know about CAN and PEK options.

It was strangely hard to find a current list of allowed China/USA flights. After trying a few search engines I got this from Baidu. Hope you can read Chinese.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8cc54e755.jpeg

The MU flights seem to get axed a lot and so does DL's DTW. I'm feeling good about my AA choice because they are just now reentering the market so they should be able to bleed money for several months.

HK giving preferential treatment to vaccinated people, shorter quarantine (7 days), reduced social distancing

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-06-21/

That's Hong Kong (antibody tests), not PRC https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/cath...l#post33344367
- Antibody testing is not even applicable to visitors to Hong Kong from PRC

I agree with the two above statements, and wondering if I should start exiting plan as an expat.

I think getting one of the two Chinese vaccines increases your chance of getting approval to return to China. It has happened to my friends and colleagues who were rejected previously (before leaving China), but received approval to return after taking the Chinese vaccines (before leaving for the US). They applied for approval to return to China at PRC consulate in SF (where UA operates its direct flight SFO-PVG) before leaving China to ensure they could return after home trips to the US.

Man that schedule is rough! I would hate to be booked on one of those once a week flights and miss it.

-One of our members in this forum booked MU to LAX, and they offered him JFK instead (that might have been cool if his destination wasn't Los Angeles).
-I put a DL ticket on hold via DTW (nice connection), and they switched me to SEA...with a 6 hour layover before a red eye to BOS...no thanks
-MU via JFK was actually my first choice, but they were coming in 2x as much as other options
-before AA relaunched DFW (I don't think it's actually started yet), they were coming in lowest on search engines via HKG, LAX, and DFW (with 12 hours in HKG)
-I considered UA 858, but it was a morning departure when I was looking, plus a long layover in SFO
-JL would have been nice (nonstop NRT-BOS), but when I searched, there were NO flights between SHA/PVG and NRT (I would have needed to go to DLC and FUK to pull that off)
-I looked at KE via ICN (also nonstop BOS flight), they weren't even selling that routing

I'm happy with my AA choice. I booked an afternoon flight the next day so I can enjoy a morning swim at the DFW GH, and have a decent lunch. I'll let you guys know how it pans out.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...-19-quarantine

Well, we can dream that HK pushes the PRC government to accept people... :)

72.9% won't do it against the Delta variant.

The 72.9% number comes from here, I didn't make it up.
Obviously we all know the number is symbolically meaningless and they are going to do whatever they want to do. This is why I don't really bother with discussions of vaccine efficacy etc in China, there is also a better forum for that https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/coronavirus-travel-773/