Originally Posted by GloballyServiced (Post 33326993)

I was just told my a Shenzhen local that you now need to have at least one shot of vaccine to be able to fly from SZX airport. I hope this is incorrect, but honestly it wouldn’t surprise me at this point.

Originally Posted by GloballyServiced (Post 33326993)

I was just told my a Shenzhen local that you now need to have at least one shot of vaccine to be able to fly from SZX airport. I hope this is incorrect, but honestly it wouldn’t surprise me at this point.

Originally Posted by travelinmanS (Post 33328987)

I just hope that whatever digital vaccine passport they roll out for domestic travel doesn’t forget about those of us without Chinese ID cards...

Originally Posted by travelinmanS (Post 33328987)

I view this as a slight positive for reopening the borders. It means they see the vaccines are working and want everyone to get them which, hopefully will lead to relaxed entry restrictions once a certain # of the population is vaccinated.

I just hope that whatever digital vaccine passport they roll out for domestic travel doesn’t forget about those of us without Chinese ID cards...

Originally Posted by sincx (Post 33329375)

SCMP is writing a series of articles about China (not) reopening

The situation doesn't look good
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dipl...navirus-travel
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...reign-business

Originally Posted by gudugan (Post 33329867)

Read the articles, let's see if I got it right...

• They are trying hard to get everyone vaccinated
• Public health "experts" that they interview for these articles are not supportive of border reopening even with vaccines
• No one knows what the Chinese government is going to do
• Expats in China are getting fed up and considering leaving

Hmmm, sounds like we have it all covered in this thread. :cool:
For the optimists out there (if there are any), the only thing that we can do is track the # of vaccine doses given and hope they miraculously change their mind someday.

Originally Posted by WasKnown (Post 33324086)

I also think there has been a strong counter movement against foreigners in China culturally. The LBF idea is so pervasive in tier 1 cities these days (which is unfortunate for a country that desperately needs skilled immigration).

Originally Posted by gudugan (Post 33298977)

Updating the numbers based on the above:

72.9% of 1.4b is 1.02b people
There's a new 3 shot vaccine, but there's also a 1 shot vaccine, so let's call it even and assume everything is 2 shot
Required doses is 2.04b

About 330m people are fully vaccinated right now (660m / 2)

At the current rate (10m people/day), that gives us (1020m-330m)/10 = 69 days or 10 August 2021.

If they can accelerate vaccine production to 15m people/day, that gets us to 46 days or 18 July 2021.

If they can accelerate vaccine production to 20m people/day, that gets us to 35 days or 6 July 2021.

Originally Posted by gudugan (Post 33342453)

Applies to everyone, no mention of what happens if one has a vaccine.

Originally Posted by percysmith (Post 33342467)

I think the general idea with vaccines in China is that they stop serious illness/collapse of the hospital system - they’re not depended upon to prevent outbreaks (sterilising).

Originally Posted by gudugan (Post 33343615)

If true, though, the “72.9% vaccinated to hit herd immunity” is meaningless. Really it’s a question of “What percentage of people without a vaccine are we ok with having the potential to get seriously ill from Covid?” Obviously vaccine distribution only gets harder once the big cities are covered.

If US and EU reopening goes smoothly, this will put the most pressure on reopening. Don’t think any other factor matters

Originally Posted by tauphi (Post 33344161)

I think in the end the crux of the matter is what will happen in the US and Europe this winter. If there is no big surge then China might reconsider its strategy. If there is then all bets are off.