checking the data on the day of the flight HKG-JFK:

Y2 B2 H2 K0 M0 L0 V0

So, does this mean the flight is pretty full and my chance for a very first long-haul op-up is decent?

(if it happens I'll buy every reg in here a bottle of beer)

It rather depends what it says for FAJCDI. If they are all zero too then maybe not.

Thanks Chris,

Here's the whole range

F4 A4 J5 C4 D3 I0 Y2 B2 H2 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0

also, I'm curious, why does FAJCDI = 0 means the flight is not full?

You've misunderstood. If FAJCDI = 0, then it means business and first are full, in which case there are no empty seats for you to be upgraded to.

Sorry to disappoint, Cathay Boy. As SL your chances are pretty slim, IMO.

I find paying for it gives a 100% success rate

Actually can we read in another way: Y is full but it's not crazy enough to overflow all to F/J, so it should quite a long list of op-ups? If it shows all 0 then it will mean flight is full and they are ready to leave people behind I guess.

I do agree for SL to get op-up chance are rather slim. if it show Y0 J0 then it may be different ...

I just can't imagine on that flight a SL would regularly get an op-up. Even if the DM (and GO) load is light for that day, there are going to be a lot of OW EMs due to the AA codeshare who I think have priority over you

Well, I can dream.

Anyway, I will be GO on my next trip. Reading the FAQ again I am amaze how fast you jump up front in the op-up world: GO is #3 on the list, SL at #8.

Well..good luck Cathay Boy... hope u'll get ur op-up soon..... If FAJCDI is wide open with economy class booking class as zero, there is a high op-up chance. HOwever if there is no I fare available, probability of op-up seems to be low.... From my limited experience. YMMV.

Your chances actually improves a bit just because you fly out of HKG. I believe the HKG ground staff treats MPO better than the JFK BA ground staff.

Good luck! Looking forward to getting your beer. :-)

I can sympathize and hope along with CX Boy. Flying to JFK on the 18th of this month and my trial at Expertflyer shows this for CX 830...

F0 A0 J1 C0 D0 I0 Y7 B6 H6 K3 M1 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0

Though the seat map itself shows 4 seats available in J and that only 17 available in Y. Though I'm ticketed V, I know there is a lengthy waitlist from having called MPO when getting my confirmed seat.

I have to disagree on this one. I have been on a flight which has shown Y9 all the way to Q909 etc and still received an upgrade (along with a bunch of other people). Basically you have to look at the bigger picture: ie the overall loadings and I'll give you some numbers as an example (im a numbers guy):

Take the hypothetical loadings for the flight below:

[Class] [Bookings] [Cap]

F/4/12
C/2/42
Y/257/230

So that means overall there are 263 bookings into 284 seats. That means while Y is overbooked by 27 seats, but there are still 24 seats open.

While I have no idea how the IT system formulates all these rules etc, it knows that with 24 seats open they can still accept bookings.

So I guess bottom line is, if you have Y2B2 etc its a pretty good indication that your flight is full (if not overbooked already). With Y2B2 etc and F4J9 etc that on first instinct says: Y overbooked J open - go OLCI and get BN1. But having said that, never rule out the possibility that even if its showing Y9 to Q9 all the way you have no chances of an upgrade. It may very well be the case that your flight in this case is indeed very empty (in that case get yourself a block seat) but based on common sense you can pretty much tell that certain routes are prone to be full in the back rather than the front!


Best of luck Cathay Boy, we're rooting for you!

Is expertflyer very reliable and accurate? As i tried checking for my flight availability and it shows zero on some lower classes like V, L, M, K but i could still book some of these fares on CX.com

I have been waitlisted for a D class seat on that flight for a month. Per MPC, it doesn't look like I will clear the waitlist either.