Flights to Oz - what's the likelihood?

Old Oct 13, 20, 1:29 pm
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Flights to Oz - what's the likelihood?

I know this is in the realms of crystal-ball stuff, however I am trying to get an idea of the likelihood a flight to Oz in late December would actually depart once ticketed.

Please ignore the quarantine situation, I fully understand that. I am also aware that because of the severe restrictions on numbers entering Australia, flights SHOULD be impossible to book due to demand from Aussies stranded in Europe. If I go over to VS, they have no availability and yet BA shows quite a choice, mostly on codesharing with QR.

So does the hive mind here think this is because they are happy to take the booking and cancel the flight later if necessary, whereas VS is being perhaps a bit more realistic?
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Old Oct 13, 20, 1:33 pm
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Entry quotas aside, I would think that QR would be the most reliable and likely to operate. If it's a BA codeshare on QR metal, not sure how concerned I would be.
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Old Oct 13, 20, 2:01 pm
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If you are not Australian , it is irrelevant since you cannot travel

QR is operating to Australa, so no reason to assume the flight will be cancelled. With restrictions on number of passengers, wouldn't buy economy at the moment unless happy to get offloaded if the max number of passengers allowed on flight is exceeded by those in business class

Virgin Atlantic doesn't fly to Australia

Whether QR flights are likely to operate seems a question for the QR forum
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Old Oct 13, 20, 2:06 pm
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Originally Posted by PAL62V View Post
I know this is in the realms of crystal-ball stuff, however I am trying to get an idea of the likelihood a flight to Oz in late December would actually depart once ticketed.

Please ignore the quarantine situation, I fully understand that. I am also aware that because of the severe restrictions on numbers entering Australia, flights SHOULD be impossible to book due to demand from Aussies stranded in Europe. If I go over to VS, they have no availability and yet BA shows quite a choice, mostly on codesharing with QR.

So does the hive mind here think this is because they are happy to take the booking and cancel the flight later if necessary, whereas VS is being perhaps a bit more realistic?
I've been following this extremely closely as I have a booking to Australia this year with Qatar Airways. On this page - https://www.qatarairways.com/en/trav...19-update.html - in passenger alerts, you can see how many passengers they can carry per flight. SYD is 28-40 per flight, PER is 30-35 per flight, BNE is 25 and ADL is 60. Therefore booking to Adelaide is going to have the best chance. There is no word on whether the arrivals caps, which have just been raised a little, will be raised again. It's interesting that QR say these numbers are though to 24 October. Perhaps they expect a change when the northern winter schedule comes in?

You will also have a better chance if you're a business class passenger, as the word on the street has it that people booked up front are far less likely to be bumped as the airlines are trying to maxmise revenue from the highly restricted passenger numbers. That being said, QR are offering upgrades to some Y passengers and I've seen people interpret that as "buy the upgrade or we'll leave you behind" whereas it seems like a normal enough offer that we all see in Manage My Booking from time to time.

Qatar are not selling any flights from Europe to Australia before 18 December, though they are flying all the time. After this date flights are on sale as normal. With regards to the return services, there are no restrictions, so you can come back with no problem when it comes to passenger limits.

My experience has been many changes since I booked in February. GOT-DOH-SYD-DOH-GOT became GOT-DOH-SYD-DOH-DUB (my choice!), then I switched the outbound to ARN as they pulled Gothenburg. After that I needed to change dates to take into account two weeks of quarantine and Sydney was only available via other cities, so it became ARN-DOH-AKL-SYD-DOH-DUB with Auckland to Sydney on LA. Not long after that, LATAM canned the AKL-SYD sector, so I was adrift for a few days until randomly one day ADL popped up on sale for a hot second (which I leapt on!), so now I am ARN-DOH-ADL-SYD-DOH-DUB, with the ADL-SYD on Qantas on a separate booking with Avios post quarantine. The final dates also moved twice due to flight time changes and things, so it's been some mission. Whether I make it to Australia or not, well, the jury is still out.

All I can advise you is to go ahead and make your booking and be realistic in knowing you may not actually get there. I'm fully prepared to be turned away at check-in at ARN or to be told a few days before that I've been bumped from the flight. If that happens, then so be it, I'm hardly going to throw my toys out of the pram as I know that flying to Australia is far from simple for passengers and airlines alike right now. It will just mean another rebooking and the continuation of hope.
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Old Oct 13, 20, 2:32 pm
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QR get the most publicity/noise on cancelled tickets. Probably also selling the most seats into AU
The current AU government regulations end 17 Dec. Based on that QR seem to selling more tickets.
Is 99.9999% certain the regulations will be extended. In the past when the date has been extended QR seem to have more seat cancellations. But is hard to determine

In late December (AU summer) will be 1000's of AU ex pats trying to get home. Most will fail.

3 Sept 2020 (gov.au) ---> Human Biosecurity Emergency Period Extended By Three Months
<snip>
The Australian Government will extend the human biosecurity emergency period under the Biosecurity Act 2015 by an additional three months.

The emergency period, which has been in place since 18 March 2020, will now be in place until 17 December 2020.
<snip>
Airlines flying to/from AU from https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia
<snip>
Commercial flights are available in several major airports across Australia. These airlines are currently operating flights departing Australia:

Airlines flying include: Air India | Air New Zealand | Emirates | Qatar Airways | United | Singapore Airlines | Cathay Pacific Airways | SriLankan Airlines | Malaysia Airlines | Asiana Airlines | China Airlines | Xiamen Airlines
<snip>
But have also read about 20 airlines are flying to/from AU. DL is also now flying LAX-SYD
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Old Oct 13, 20, 2:42 pm
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Some very interesting help there. I should have added that I travel under an Aust passport, although I no longer live there. I would be going for work reasons and the problem there is that my dates will be basically fixed. That's where the real worry is, as I can't really allow for being held up for a few days.

On the question of flying J, I usually do that ex-EU. I had thought this time though that it was one more complication that I didn't want to add into the mix, getting to/from ARN or OSL from LON. And from LON, well.... we all know the price difference. Perhaps though, ex-EU that may be a better option after all.

Eager to hear any more thoughts - thanks for all the well-reasoned info so far.
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Old Oct 13, 20, 2:51 pm
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Originally Posted by PAL62V View Post
Some very interesting help there. I should have added that I travel under an Aust passport, although I no longer live there. I would be going for work reasons and the problem there is that my dates will be basically fixed. That's where the real worry is, as I can't really allow for being held up for a few days.

On the question of flying J, I usually do that ex-EU. I had thought this time though that it was one more complication that I didn't want to add into the mix, getting to/from ARN or OSL from LON. And from LON, well.... we all know the price difference. Perhaps though, ex-EU that may be a better option after all.

Eager to hear any more thoughts - thanks for all the well-reasoned info so far.
Entering AU on an AU passport will be no issue, if you get a seat.
Leaving AU may be more problematic as most AU citizens/permanent residents need AU government authority to leave.
The AU government is trying to discourage people on short trips coming from Covid-19 risk places
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Old Oct 13, 20, 2:53 pm
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Originally Posted by PAL62V View Post
Some very interesting help there. I should have added that I travel under an Aust passport, although I no longer live there. I would be going for work reasons and the problem there is that my dates will be basically fixed. That's where the real worry is, as I can't really allow for being held up for a few days.

On the question of flying J, I usually do that ex-EU. I had thought this time though that it was one more complication that I didn't want to add into the mix, getting to/from ARN or OSL from LON. And from LON, well.... we all know the price difference. Perhaps though, ex-EU that may be a better option after all.

Eager to hear any more thoughts - thanks for all the well-reasoned info so far.
I'd say you're going to have to fly in J to be guaranteed a place on a flight. There are plenty of stories of people being repeatedly bumped until they forked out for J and then they got on board their new flight just fine. If you can find an ex-EU fare that suits, book it and you'll likely get into Australia. I'd say booking economy is going to end in tears.

Originally Posted by Mwenenzi View Post
Entering AU on an AU passport will be no issue, if you get a seat.
Leaving AU may be more problematic as most AU citizens/permanent residents need AU government authority to leave.
The AU government is trying to discourage people on short trips coming from Covid-19 risk places
If you're ordinarily resident elsewhere, you are exempt from needing permission to leave again.

Last edited by FlightDetective; Oct 13, 20 at 2:56 pm Reason: Added reply to Mwenenzi
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Old Oct 13, 20, 3:28 pm
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Originally Posted by FlightDetective View Post
Whether I make it to Australia or not, well, the jury is still out.
Unless you are an Austrralian, the Jury is unlikely to even need to consider it

Last edited by Dave Noble; Oct 13, 20 at 3:35 pm
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Old Oct 13, 20, 3:32 pm
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...del
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Old Oct 13, 20, 3:55 pm
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Originally Posted by Dave Noble View Post
Unless you are an Austrralian, the Jury is unlikely to even need to consider it
Of course I'm Australian - we're the only ones "allowed in" right now. I don't believe the airlines are routinely taking bookings from anyone not Australian as my Passport was checked at least once during booking roulette to ensure I had permission to enter.
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Old Oct 13, 20, 3:58 pm
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Permanent residents are allowed to enter Australia, as are people granted an exemption (eg on a 482 visa with a critical skill exemption).

Not that this matters to the OP, but may be useful to others.
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Old Oct 13, 20, 5:26 pm
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Originally Posted by secretplantofightinflation View Post
Permanent residents are allowed to enter Australia, as are people granted an exemption (eg on a 482 visa with a critical skill exemption).

Not that this matters to the OP, but may be useful to others.
I'm an Aust citizen, but not a resident any longer. Does this have a bearing?
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Old Oct 13, 20, 5:28 pm
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Family members of citizens/residents are also allowed to enter if granted exemption.

I'm in an interesting situation, I have the same rights as permanent residents of Australia yet am free to come and go as I please from Australia. If only I could endure hotel quarantine, I'd be gone in a flash.
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Old Oct 13, 20, 5:28 pm
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Originally Posted by Mwenenzi View Post
In late December (AU summer) will be 1000's of AU ex pats trying to get home. Most will fail.
I suspect this year itís going to be late November or early December - not late December. Typically expats try to reach home in time to spend Christmas back in Australia with family. This year that means reaching Australia by 10 December at the latest. I expect many will give up on this year though.
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