Flights to Oz - what's the likelihood?

Old Oct 14, 20, 4:25 pm
  #31  
 
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Question about reward flights on this route - I'm seeing no availability on the full LHR > SYD, but if I choose to add stopovers, there is separately availability on BA15 LHR > SIN then also BA15 SIN > SYD. When I select them individually I then get an error (I assume because it doesn't allow the short connection time, but ignoring the fact its the same aircraft on both legs).

I'm assuming the reason this situation happens is because of a quirk in the way the availability is individually set for each leg as well as the entire route. But it seems a bit silly.

If I call will they be able to give me the full LHR > SYD by manually selecting the rewards on each leg, or is this just a no go?

Also secondary question, is there any point in booking this route for next summer, or is there no chance of BA flying?
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Old Oct 14, 20, 4:30 pm
  #32  
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Originally Posted by DG55 View Post
Also secondary question, is there any point in booking this route for next summer, or is there no chance of BA flying?
Next Australian summer? 50/50. And given the current situation I think trying to unravel any hypothetical availability isn't worth too much effort.
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Old Oct 14, 20, 4:36 pm
  #33  
 
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Sorry I meant next UK summer - July - August.
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Old Oct 14, 20, 5:54 pm
  #34  
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Have been several statement by AU government politicians on travel for 2021. -- unlikely for general travel.
But some "bubbles" with Japan, Singapore Korea may be eventuate
Link---> https://www.executivetraveller.com/n...ingapore-japan
Some countries. like UK & USA are considered high risk so very low chance will be open.

Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave View Post
Next Australian summer? 50/50. And given the current situation I think trying to unravel any hypothetical availability isn't worth too much effort.
Originally Posted by DG55 View Post
Sorry I meant next UK summer - July - August.
My odds for travel from UK by non AU citizens (with the 14 days self paid isolation in AU on arrival)
Australian summer 2020/2021------- 0/100 [0% yes - 100% no) .
UK summer - July - August 2021---- 15/85 [15% yes - 85% no) being very optimistic.

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ocea...-15-march.html

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ocea...c-islands.html

Last edited by Mwenenzi; Oct 14, 20 at 10:41 pm Reason: 2012--2021 date correction
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Old Oct 14, 20, 5:59 pm
  #35  
 
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Originally Posted by DG55 View Post
Question about reward flights on this route - I'm seeing no availability on the full LHR > SYD, but if I choose to add stopovers, there is separately availability on BA15 LHR > SIN then also BA15 SIN > SYD. When I select them individually I then get an error (I assume because it doesn't allow the short connection time, but ignoring the fact its the same aircraft on both legs).

I'm assuming the reason this situation happens is because of a quirk in the way the availability is individually set for each leg as well as the entire route. But it seems a bit silly.

If I call will they be able to give me the full LHR > SYD by manually selecting the rewards on each leg, or is this just a no go?
Singapore government have restrictions in place at the moment around transiting SIN, and airlines have to apply to allow passengers to transit at the airport. BA might not have applied yet, which may be an explanation for this. However if they intend running the service Id expect they would apply.
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Old Oct 15, 20, 2:57 am
  #36  
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Originally Posted by DG55 View Post
Sorry I meant next UK summer - July - August.
In which case 0% chance of meaningful flights operating, as things stand. Think about it - they announce a vaccine tomorrow, how long before enough of the world is jabbed up that Australia is OK to let people in? They have under 1 case per 100,000 per 14 days, UK is on 300 cases and is by no means the worst country.
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Old Oct 15, 20, 8:45 am
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Dave Noble View Post
As long as you are happy staying in quarantine for min 14 days on arriva and paying $3000 for it, then as an Australian passport holder, no issue

Does seem an odd time to want to visit given those restrictions, but as long as able to get on a flight , go for it
Without going into too much detail, quarantine will be paid for by the client and the time of year is related to the job at hand, which is time specific. I have since learned of other details which should make it far easier to travel on a selected flight.
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Old Oct 15, 20, 12:32 pm
  #38  
 
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I travel each year in Jan/Feb to see family down under. I have booked two redemption tickets for the journey home on BA16 SYD-LHR, one in Feb and one in March, next year, not in the hope that I can travel - I agree it will be impossible to enter Australia in 3 months time as a British citizen. My plan is to change the date once these flights are cancelled (highly likely).

I would prefer to travel in Australia's summer so I am hoping to get one of the tickets changed to Jan or Feb 2022. Only problem is that I booked just a few days ago in the redemption sale so my ticket will only be valid until October 2021. I am hoping for some leniency and that BA can extend the validity of my redemption tickets by 3 months - I booked 2 one way redemptions, one in F and the other in J, as I do not know if the new Club suite product will be available in early 2022 and I wasn't sure which cabin to fly in. I definitely do not want old Club World on a 23hr flight. I read someone had an Avios redemption from LHR-BOM and wanted to change the date beyond the 12 months validity and was unsuccessful in doing so, but I am going to try and plead and be super nice when I call to try and change the dates.

Also, I just checked today and I can change my F booking to Sep 2021, availability is open for 1 seat in First on BA16 , via MMB. No extra Avios or taxes required. I could travel then if I wanted to but I'm not going to do that as I doubt I would be able to enter Australia even 11 months from now.


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Old Oct 15, 20, 2:45 pm
  #39  
 
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This is quite inaccurate. I am personally aware of one US citizen and one German citizen who have been granted entry for emergency reasons, as well as two UK citizens who are permanent residents being admitted.


Originally Posted by Dave Noble View Post
Unless you are an Austrralian, the Jury is unlikely to even need to consider it
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Old Oct 15, 20, 2:57 pm
  #40  
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Originally Posted by HFHFFlyer View Post
This is quite inaccurate. I am personally aware of one US citizen and one German citizen who have been granted entry for emergency reasons, as well as two UK citizens who are permanent residents being admitted.
Australian permanent residents have always been allowed to (re)enter.
And a few others by exemption

AU Gov links
https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/coming-australia

https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions
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Old Oct 15, 20, 2:59 pm
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave View Post
In which case 0% chance of meaningful flights operating, as things stand. Think about it - they announce a vaccine tomorrow, how long before enough of the world is jabbed up that Australia is OK to let people in? They have under 1 case per 100,000 per 14 days, UK is on 300 cases and is by no means the worst country.
This is all so true, but I think it will be worse in many ways. An early vaccine is unlikely to be more than 50% effective. So even when the whole population (or at least those considered at risk) are immunised, there is still a significant problem in a population where the virus hasn’t really been present in a meaningful way. In other words, after deployment of a vaccine and once suppression measures are released, there is likely to be a major outbreak, even if it leads to less serious disease for at risk groups. That will likely take a good six to nine months to pass, and I doubt that borders will open before it has. Best case scenario: A/NZ reopen in June 2022.
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Last edited by HFHFFlyer; Oct 15, 20 at 3:10 pm
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Old Oct 15, 20, 4:26 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by HFHFFlyer View Post
This is all so true, but I think it will be worse in many ways. An early vaccine is unlikely to be more than 50% effective. So even when the whole population (or at least those considered at risk) are immunised, there is still a significant problem in a population where the virus hasnt really been present in a meaningful way. In other words, after deployment of a vaccine and once suppression measures are released, there is likely to be a major outbreak, even if it leads to less serious disease for at risk groups. That will likely take a good six to nine months to pass, and I doubt that borders will open before it has. Best case scenario: A/NZ reopen in June 2022.
Add to this inevitable vaccine shortages, licencing issues -- for example, its likely to be licensed for over 18's only -- and then those who'd refuse a vaccine will mean 50% population-level immunity is a long, long way off. Could 25% be achievable? Could it be 12.5%? I don't know, but it's going to be a small number. Unless the early vaccine is really, really good there's a second or third peak in store for pretty much every country that has suppressed the virus, and Australia's mortality figures could potentially be ugly.
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Old Oct 16, 20, 8:25 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by PAL62V View Post
Without going into too much detail, quarantine will be paid for by the client and the time of year is related to the job at hand, which is time specific. I have since learned of other details which should make it far easier to travel on a selected flight.
Whether paid by the client or not, reports of the quarantine facilities and treatment are pretty dire (and potentially getting worse with the increase of repatriation flights).

I'd do everything in my power to avoid ending up in quarantine (i.e. avoid travelling) unless absolutely essential.
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Old Oct 16, 20, 2:27 pm
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Originally Posted by Jon Baker View Post
Whether paid by the client or not, reports of the quarantine facilities and treatment are pretty dire (and potentially getting worse with the increase of repatriation flights).

I'd do everything in my power to avoid ending up in quarantine (i.e. avoid travelling) unless absolutely essential.
Those of us travelling are well aware it's 14 days locked into a hotel room, with three meals a day provided that may or may not be good. Some of the hotels are considered "a dive" as one friend put it. So rest assured, we know what we're getting into.
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Old Oct 16, 20, 2:45 pm
  #45  
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The hotels being used seem to vary from more basic hotels to upmarket hotels, but not sure why they would be classed as dire. Any hotel room is likely to be boring for 14 days

If you don't like the food, you can order for take away food to be delivered once a day at your own cost

Quarantining arrivals does seem to be effective in helping contain spread of coronavirus
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