Well you can expect 24 units in the BA fleet soon! Lol

I actually wonder if the Max will ever fly again. Raffles for me wondering with a comment on his site re the IAG max order. Airlines aren’t going to return to pre COVID levels for years. Why not just continue with your current fleet (albeit refreshed Interiors maybe) , presumably on better lease terms, for the next five-eight years?

School of thought on US focused blogs is that aircraft like the 220 will do much better than the 737 or 320 for orders in the next couple of years. Mainly due to decreased demand.

For MAX's, the USA would probably find something and they would continue operating - Similar situation like the 787's. Boeing currently does not have any narrow-body aircraft in production. A little possibility, but they may continue to produce 737NG's if they are pessimistic about MAX's.

For LHR, A220 or similar aircraft would not work, slots are limited at Heathrow, and BA must focus on carrying more passengers as they could. Instead, A220's would definitely work with LCY rather than the current CityFlyer fleet. I might seem far too optimistic but believe me or not, LGW has the potential to return to its pre-COVID capacity next summer.

And, also, from people's reactions over there, the USA would be the last country in the world, for air travel rates to come back to pre-COVID.

Limit on the number of A220s that can be at LCY at once though, isn't there? ISTR that the limit is going up with apron improvements, but not away - 2 going to 4 or something?

I haven’t followed the development of the 779 in detail but am aware that its entry into service will be late. This gives BA the opportunity to delay its deliveries without penalty, given that capex needs to be reduced and growth not needed for some time.

it’s delivery is about a year late from 2020 to 21. Though when BA said 2022 at CMD this was after the delay but it’s been moved to 23 I believe due to coronavirus and Boeing cutting down production from 5 to 3 a month but the 779 is needed only for replacement not growth

Since Boeing has so far been unable to get the 779 certified by the FAA or any other aviation safety authority anywhere, delivery delay is inevitable!
Now some of the certification delays can undoubtedly be attributed to COVID-19, with staff of all organisations concerned affected by lockdowns, social distancing etc, but it was already running late, mainly because of increased scrutiny after the MAX catastrophes. But there was also the incident during the ground-based stress test in September when the rear of the cabin depressurised and a cargo door failed, and the issues with GE's new design engine, though these are meant to have been resolved now.

absolutely. Watched a video from January 2019 with Walsh at an aviation club society in Dublin and he talks about not ordering the max being one of his biggest regrets and only giving the wide body order to Airbus and this one before the whole MAX debacle and thing about IAG it’s led by different versions of Walsh, especially Steve Gunning as he closed the deal but it came at a time when BA could get a good price on them because Walsh was thinking of the max much further down the line at the time not in six months

this answer is a bit off. How can they get a plane certified that’s about 4 months into testing? This aircraft won’t be certified till about 2021. The September cargo door issue has been resolved the GE engines have been fixed with 99% of certification done with the engines. It is not running late because increased scrutiny from the MAX that is very wrong. It was running late because of the GE engine fix. There is a tech advisory board That is working with Boeing and the FAA on the certification process. FAA certification won’t begin till about late 2020/early 2021 and that will take about 2 months testing takes about 10 months and we are 4 months into that

As part of the current negotiations with BALPA, BA are trying to allow for BA CityFlyer to fly from Heathrow - this is something that appears likely to happen sooner rather than later (this summer).

If approved it would be interesting to see what will happen at LCY. Would it mean moving aircraft from LCY to LHR or increasing the size of CFE (adding extra aircraft to fly from LHR) at the expense of mainline BA?

I'd rather see it as a way to keep part of BACF flying, as well as covering routes that otherwise wouldn't be economic with larger planes. Still, it'll take some time to implement: literally no one at LHR is even remotely qualified to touch an Embraer.

Was there not some sort of wet lease from CFE to BA at LGW a few years ago? I can't remember the specifics now.

Can't remember it, but they definitely must've taken their own crews and maintenance personnel. I think the Embraer is not even on BA's list of 'approved aircrafts' from an engineering point of view. All I was saying is that everyone who might touch it - logistics, the pushback crews, baggage loaders - would need specific training. Not a massive thing, but building up a sufficient pool takes time. I'm also wondering if the Mototok and the Douglas tugs are rated for the Embraers. I always saw those planes being pushed with a towbar, of which there aren't any in T5.

As with everything else at the moment, I imagine both the MAX and 779 are up in the air.

For example, take a scenario where BA choose to keep the A380 in the fleet (given they are owned). In the current climate, with 35K deliveries continuing, the 781 arriving soon and the densification programmes on the whole 77E/W fleet, do BA really need another large aircraft to fill? A mix of 35K, 788, 789, 781, densified 77E, 77W and 388 is a pretty diverse fleet mix which may facilitate right sizing markets for the next 5-7 years.

In the short term there would be fleet reduction with the (very saddening early) loss of the 744. Longer term a deferred 779 order provides the option to expand again later (after all 35K’s and 787’s are received) if demand returns or as replacements when the G-VII 77E’s have no life left.

I imagine many airline CEO’s would love to have a crystal ball now more than ever before.