BA fleet developments: unconfirmed updates, speculation, and general discussion
 

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Image credit: British Airways

Welcome to the new "BA fleet developments: unconfirmed updates, speculation, and general discussion" thread. This is a continuation of the popular https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...r-tracker.html thread and has been purposefully created for speculative and more general discussion of this topic. A sister thread has also been established to cater for factual/confirmed updates and information concerning BA's fleet of aircraft.


Related threads:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...tirements.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit......-guide.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...-underway.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...n-refresh.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...8-onwards.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...fied-a321.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...h-changes.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...5-otp-lhr.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...ng-g-medn.html
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/brit...-aircraft.html


Further information and resources:
South Wales Aviation Group BAMC tracker
The BA Source

So I’ll start the ball rolling on the hot topic again :D.

Has anyone else heard anything from BA engineers about the reconfiguration of the 747? Just wondering if it was truth or just a rumour. I guess it would be carried out at Cardiff where a few 747s are stored anyway.

A350 orders to be converted to A321XLR to fly LHR-BOS in J & W configuration, no Y or F. MF crews.

I assume this is in the speculation category of this thread?

Wow. That’s BA really thinking out of the box if true

Pure speculation.

It would be interesting if they were. As you say, very outside the box for BA.

I guess I am just trying to ask whether this is just complete speculation, or there is some source/information saying it may have legs - both obviously fine in the thread but it is useful to understand a bit of context as well.

Might be easier to convert the 3 outstanding 321Neo orders to LR or XLR. Especially if it is for one specific route. The LR would be able to do LHR to BOS no problems. Air Transat have used it on LGW to YYZ which is a longer flight.

That’s a better idea.

Will the B779 be classed as a VLA?

I really think this would add some excellent flexibility to the fleet. I am no expert on range (could they make it to the west coast for example), but surely it would make sense to have a hand full of semi-premium (J/W) options for low season or additions where demand peaks. They could serve small
airports for specific events and charge a small fortune for a proper direct Club service where appropriate.

Post CODIV it would be great if BA could position itself to be a real leader in every way, including fleet mix.

This mess will wrong foot many operators, there will be opportunities.

I always thought the 4 MidHaul A321s should have been replaced by some A321neos. It would really reduce fuel consumption on these routes.

As for the A321LR I just don’t think it fits with BA’s model. It is designed to link second tier airports which wouldn’t be able to sustain a widebody. BA have shown they can make thinner routes work with the 787-8 and any fewer seats probably raises questions. LHR is (was) short on slots so you want to have the biggest aircraft as that’s the only way to get extra seats. No need to waste a slot on an A321LR when you can use a 777 and get more money flying somewhere else.

I guess post-COVID19 some routes could probably work with a A321LR though - Pittsburgh and Charleston spring to mind as well as the current MidHaul destinations.

Yes, a Very Late Aircraft!

You've also got the cargo revenue to think about. Even if the aircraft isn't completely full of pax, with a widebody there is plenty of space for additional hold cargo which will can keep the flight in overall profit.

Also don't forget that IAG had an initial goodwill agreement with Boeing related to 200 Boeing 737-MAX aircraft.
We still don't have any further information if this would happen but if the MAX aircraft is certified within the next year or two, it seems that we would see 737-MAX's at the BA fleet before A321neoLR's or XLR's.

Well you can expect 24 units in the BA fleet soon! Lol

I actually wonder if the Max will ever fly again. Raffles for me wondering with a comment on his site re the IAG max order. Airlines aren’t going to return to pre COVID levels for years. Why not just continue with your current fleet (albeit refreshed Interiors maybe) , presumably on better lease terms, for the next five-eight years?

School of thought on US focused blogs is that aircraft like the 220 will do much better than the 737 or 320 for orders in the next couple of years. Mainly due to decreased demand.

For MAX's, the USA would probably find something and they would continue operating - Similar situation like the 787's. Boeing currently does not have any narrow-body aircraft in production. A little possibility, but they may continue to produce 737NG's if they are pessimistic about MAX's.

For LHR, A220 or similar aircraft would not work, slots are limited at Heathrow, and BA must focus on carrying more passengers as they could. Instead, A220's would definitely work with LCY rather than the current CityFlyer fleet. I might seem far too optimistic but believe me or not, LGW has the potential to return to its pre-COVID capacity next summer.

And, also, from people's reactions over there, the USA would be the last country in the world, for air travel rates to come back to pre-COVID.

Limit on the number of A220s that can be at LCY at once though, isn't there? ISTR that the limit is going up with apron improvements, but not away - 2 going to 4 or something?

I haven’t followed the development of the 779 in detail but am aware that its entry into service will be late. This gives BA the opportunity to delay its deliveries without penalty, given that capex needs to be reduced and growth not needed for some time.

it’s delivery is about a year late from 2020 to 21. Though when BA said 2022 at CMD this was after the delay but it’s been moved to 23 I believe due to coronavirus and Boeing cutting down production from 5 to 3 a month but the 779 is needed only for replacement not growth

Since Boeing has so far been unable to get the 779 certified by the FAA or any other aviation safety authority anywhere, delivery delay is inevitable!
Now some of the certification delays can undoubtedly be attributed to COVID-19, with staff of all organisations concerned affected by lockdowns, social distancing etc, but it was already running late, mainly because of increased scrutiny after the MAX catastrophes. But there was also the incident during the ground-based stress test in September when the rear of the cabin depressurised and a cargo door failed, and the issues with GE's new design engine, though these are meant to have been resolved now.

absolutely. Watched a video from January 2019 with Walsh at an aviation club society in Dublin and he talks about not ordering the max being one of his biggest regrets and only giving the wide body order to Airbus and this one before the whole MAX debacle and thing about IAG it’s led by different versions of Walsh, especially Steve Gunning as he closed the deal but it came at a time when BA could get a good price on them because Walsh was thinking of the max much further down the line at the time not in six months

this answer is a bit off. How can they get a plane certified that’s about 4 months into testing? This aircraft won’t be certified till about 2021. The September cargo door issue has been resolved the GE engines have been fixed with 99% of certification done with the engines. It is not running late because increased scrutiny from the MAX that is very wrong. It was running late because of the GE engine fix. There is a tech advisory board That is working with Boeing and the FAA on the certification process. FAA certification won’t begin till about late 2020/early 2021 and that will take about 2 months testing takes about 10 months and we are 4 months into that

As part of the current negotiations with BALPA, BA are trying to allow for BA CityFlyer to fly from Heathrow - this is something that appears likely to happen sooner rather than later (this summer).

If approved it would be interesting to see what will happen at LCY. Would it mean moving aircraft from LCY to LHR or increasing the size of CFE (adding extra aircraft to fly from LHR) at the expense of mainline BA?

I'd rather see it as a way to keep part of BACF flying, as well as covering routes that otherwise wouldn't be economic with larger planes. Still, it'll take some time to implement: literally no one at LHR is even remotely qualified to touch an Embraer.

Was there not some sort of wet lease from CFE to BA at LGW a few years ago? I can't remember the specifics now.

Can't remember it, but they definitely must've taken their own crews and maintenance personnel. I think the Embraer is not even on BA's list of 'approved aircrafts' from an engineering point of view. All I was saying is that everyone who might touch it - logistics, the pushback crews, baggage loaders - would need specific training. Not a massive thing, but building up a sufficient pool takes time. I'm also wondering if the Mototok and the Douglas tugs are rated for the Embraers. I always saw those planes being pushed with a towbar, of which there aren't any in T5.

As with everything else at the moment, I imagine both the MAX and 779 are up in the air.

For example, take a scenario where BA choose to keep the A380 in the fleet (given they are owned). In the current climate, with 35K deliveries continuing, the 781 arriving soon and the densification programmes on the whole 77E/W fleet, do BA really need another large aircraft to fill? A mix of 35K, 788, 789, 781, densified 77E, 77W and 388 is a pretty diverse fleet mix which may facilitate right sizing markets for the next 5-7 years.

In the short term there would be fleet reduction with the (very saddening early) loss of the 744. Longer term a deferred 779 order provides the option to expand again later (after all 35K’s and 787’s are received) if demand returns or as replacements when the G-VII 77E’s have no life left.

I imagine many airline CEO’s would love to have a crystal ball now more than ever before.

this was the same thing I thought. Until i remembered there’s a huge 747 GAP of about 30 frames and then 77Es begin to fade off given that their owned, Demand returns, the 779 will take BA back to where it was pre covid but they don’t need it now, 2023 Entry is the correct time also some 77E replacements will happen with the 779. I don’t see the 779 as growth at all. The 787 was growth the 779 has always been tipped for the 747 replacement program and from the moment it launched BA has always wanted it but the pricing had to be right.

How interesting!

I guess the E-jets could be parked on remote stands which would help overcome some of the logistical issues.

The E190 would probably be a good plane to operate the new NQY route too. They would also need to switch Euro Traveller back to free catering across the board, otherwise Airbus flights would have BOB and Embraers free snacks.

Aren't they serving free pretzels on short-haul regardless of the aircraft type, at least for the moment?

Yes, good point. I see the 779 as essentially filling the vacum left by the 747 retirements. Worth bearing in mind that the 788 and a35k don't have F and not every 777 has F either and the 7810 will take a while coming. That will be a factor in fleet balance as I am sure BA will be wanting to maintain F on some of the more lucrative routes and may mean we see some of the 747s for at least a few years more?

Yes they are. I guess that’ll stay in place for a while then.

I wonder if in the longer term the crisis gives BA the cover to quietly dump Tourvest and go to a more simplified free ET offering of pretzels plus pre-packages beer, wine or soft drink or a hot drink. No other legacy airline copied them and their staff costs might have radically changed.

I'll prefer BoB rather than pretzels onboard a 4h flight to Istanbul. I generally help myself at the lounges in order to avoid paying for BoB, however, there were cases that I was hungry and I purchased a sandwich from the M&S menu.

And also, the BoB would certainly resume in terms of revenue when things get better. Forget free beer/wine/spirits on ET.

I predicted this a while back. However I was told that the CASK for an E-Jet are similar to that of an A320 so was unlikely to happen. I guess while the CASK is similar, if overall trip costs are lower (as there are fewer seats), it would make sense. I think it will happen.

That’s a good point and possibly one reason why BA haven’t firmed up their offering on the route yet.

I'm sure BA are already all over this with their corporate clients. It's hard to see the likes of the JFK returning to the same frequency as before, other business heavy routes are likely to be the same in the short term thus reducing the need for lots of First. The 77E, 77W, 789, 781 and 388 may prove to be enough First capacity to plug the gap.

Covid19 will drive a huge shift in how the majority are likely operate in broad terms. Personally, I have come to the conclusion that instead of traveling most weeks I can do my job remotely for at least three weeks per month. The other one week on site just to show my face and keep up actual human appearances. The exception to this being at the beginning of a piece of work when I find it much more beneficial building relationships while I am physically sitting with a client.

Many employers will again be seeing the savings made by blocking or forcing serious scrutiny on work related, non-essential travel. I am not thinking for a second this is the rule for everyone but if even 50% of current travelers find they can do their job 75% of the time remotely that'll be a big loss in the short to medium term. Many of the customers lost, in many cases, may have have been sitting 'up front'.