razMJ

Although the A380 is better than the 747-8 in terms of increasing capacity on passenger routes, there are some areas in which it is not able to where the 747-8 could. For example, BA has expressed interest in operating the A380 to India as it predicts an increase in traffic, and due to slot constraints in LHR would need larger aircraft. But the Indian government probably wouldn't allow it to until IT gets its A380s for competition purposes, but who knows if IT will still be operating in 2016. Whereas a 747-8 would be allowed to operate to India.
Other areas where they may want to increase capacity but an A380 would be too much would also be suitable for a 747-8, however as stated above this may still be not economically viable.

peterrabbit

Replacing 747-400s with 747-8s would give some increase in capacity - do BA really need 380s on all the 747 routes? Don't the economic per seat numbers only make sense if they can be filled? And the order of 12 isn't going to get close to replacing all of the jumbos (and I don't see the 787 replacing some either).

I don't completely get the argument that they're uneconomic compared to a 380. BA is running 747-400s now and the 747-8 will be more efficient than that so that's a win, right? And AFAIK they're at least few million dollars cheaper to buy than the 380 (and I'm sure Boeing would do a deal if BA/IAG suggested they were launching a program to replace a bunch of 747s)

How long have the existing 747's got left - I mean at what stage are some EOL and have to be scrapped?

IAMORGAN

I agree about the A380s. They are big aircraft and can't land everywhere BA want them to be able to land. BA longhaul pilots are not airbus experienced so you'll have to train 54 year old Captain Nigel, who has been flying the 747 since the classic days to trust FBW, A-Floor, and so on. They'll just love it!

I've heard arguments that the 748 is uneconomic and old technology.

I guess that we just have to accept that BA knows a lot more about aircraft ordering than us.

As for Gatwick, I would love to see the 737s go and some nice 319s come in their place. The 319 would be good because it would still only need 3 cabin crew, unlike the 320 which needs 4 or the 321 which (I think) needs 5.

JimEddie

Or maybe they're waiting to see what Boeing's next big thing is...

Littlegirl

BA pilots are not split between Longhaul and Shorthaul. They are just type rated on a certain aircraft. They can retrain on any aircraft and often move between aircraft types. Pilots are allowed to bid to move to other aircraft fleets and I believe there is no shortage of pilots bidding for the A380, from all fleets including our Shorthaul Airbus pilots.

BAHumbug

They've probably got a long old wait ahead then...

BAH

aerodude

Damn right they do. Aircraft economics and aircraft performance require highly complex analysis with literally hundreds if not thousands of criteria that will carry a complex weighting system to boot - anything we can say on here is just chatter!

So let me indulge ...I think it speaks volumes of the 747-8 that really only one major airline has ordered it (likely at a huge discount from list prices). Internal industry chatter also points to a very poor engine offering from GE (effectively a mod'd GEnx) that hasn't been designed principally for this aircraft and is yet to demonstrate good SFC and predicted despatch reliability. I've also heard that the economics just aren't stacking up for this variant with other hugely competitive and extremely capable aircraft on the market and due for EIS in the next decade.

BA is just not going to upgrade their fleet based on "how good the aircraft looks".

IAMORGAN

Wow, I'm surprised. I had always assumed that the pilots would be separated as either shorthaul or longhaul. You learn something every day.

Littlegirl

Obviously some aircrafts only fly on Longhaul routes, such as the 747 or 777, although they could get used to do a short hop if the need arises, so these pilots by the nature of the work that their aircraft does, only do Longhaul work but the 767 pilots do both Longhaul and Shorthaul work.

The majority of pilots want to be on Longhaul routes because it actually gives them more time at home by the nature of the rostering. Shorthaul rostering is generally lots of sectors but still made up of trips away of quite often five days. So the Shorthaul aircraft are predominantly the newer pilots. Some of the new Captains have come from the 747 and 777 to the airbus to get their command faster, while others wait in the right hand seat of the 777 and 747 for ages, preferring the Longhaul lifestyle and wait for a command there.

IAMORGAN

So, once you've gained "Captain", say on the A320 fleet, there's nothing to stop you doing a conversion and then being the "Captain" on, say, a 747 aircraft -even though you have exactly 0 hours on type, whereas the person in the Right Hand Seat had 7,000 hours on type?

Do captains ever go from captain to Senior First Officer in order to progress onto a longhaul aircraft?

Also, whilst we're at it, are all BA's pilots centrally based (i.e. they work both Gatwick and Heathrow flights) or are they based at one or the other?

[Sorry, I appreciate that this should be in the "Ask the BA staff" theread and promise not to ask any more OT questions from now on.]

Littlegirl

Yes, they put in a bid to move aircraft and it is done on seniority.
Although an F.O. could have more hours than the Captain on that specific aircraft type, the Captain would be more experienced overall and have more total flying hours than the F.O.in general, obviously some F.O.s can be very experienced if hey have previously worked for other airlines. It is the experience of flying that counts. Sometimes the Captain may have previously been a First Officer on an aircraft type and be returning to be a Captain, so may well know the aircraft type very well already.

I believe that they could opt to go back as a F.O. But I don't think that that is an option that many would want.

They are generally based at either LGW or LHR but sometimes they can work from both. For instance the Airbus pilots at LGW can be LHR airbus pilots and they might do what we call a W pattern, for instance flying from LHR to say Geneva, nightstoping and then taking another airbus the following day to LGW. The pilots that fly on the 318 out of London City, to New York are LHR Airbus pilots.

stueys

Definitely get that concept, get a painful reminder when I compare my wife's 4 cylinder duel economy against my car

Didn't know the 748 had been such a poor seller, interesting.

From a purely layman's perspective, I guess some routes should be capacity driven (eg MCO) and some routes frequency driven (eg NYC). So really the airlines are choosing between fuel efficiency or biggest capacity. Given BA have a chunk of routes with 2 to 3 flights a day it feels as if the 787 will constrain loads compared to the current stock of 747's? Unless they get a load more 30's on order...

IAMORGAN

Thanks for that info. ^

RB211

Well said aerodude! The fleet plans I have seen from BA don't add up (yet!) So that means they haven't made the "complete" plan public yet, or they haven't completed the plan. Given the current turbulent nature of the airline industry that is not uncommon... and these plans are organic and ongoing in nature anyway. In other words, there is never an end point, the fleet mix is always about to change or in the process of changing. And always in the state of being planned to be changed.

So yes, the 744s will all go at some point (sniff!) Obviously 12 380s will not replace 55 744s. So either more 380s will be acquired or other aircraft will be used to replace the 744s. Or both. Probably both.

rb211.

ffI

I doubt it. While AA was bragging about NOT going to BK to service their obligations including employees (despite poor returns for their shareholders), the employees did not feel the same love and preferred to get out while the going was good. I love you, you don't love me.