yeunganson

There are few confusing terms.

Merging the frequent flyer program is different from merging the two companies.

So before anything is done, the proposed merger of Korea Air and Asiana needs to get approved. That means spring 2021. Right now, those two companies should be operating independently. Once merger is approved. One side need to successful in ponying up the money and actually go through. We have seen deals fall apart even after regulatory approval and it's crazy to start making huge strategic decisions (like joining/leaving) an alliance before the deal is closed. Then once the deal is closed (merger completed), then they can start the integration. Still there are procedures on leaving an alliance, it's not an overnight issue. So you my bet is you get like a year of advanced warning.

Under the assumptions above - an educated guess would be Spring 2021 to get regulatory approval. Then summer 2021 for Korea Air to issue bonds, stocks and whatever money needs to fund the acquisition. Shareholders of both Asiana and Korean Air (both public traded company) have to be called for special shareholder meeting to approve the merger. I know small shareholders vote doesn't matter but because they are public traded company, procedure wise, you must go through those steps. After passing all these procedure process, we enter fall 2021. As merger begins, system have to be combined, crew members retrained.. Is getting Asiana out of Star Alliance top priority? Maybe it's a priority but not the immediate concern of an airlines. Imagine Asiana leaving Star Alliance too soon before Korean Air's system has integrated with Asiana, that means shooting themselves in the foot for loss revenue. So let give them an aggressive progress and then start the Star-Alliance exit procedures. That is likely a 1 year time clock - so fall of 2022 at least before Asiana gets to leave Star Alliance.

SPN Lifer

Is the timing of the exit of an airline controlled by that airline, or by the alliance?

dinoscool3

The airline, I'd image.

At the end of the day, the alliances seem to have very little actual power, instead it rests with the major airlines in said alliance. If UA, LH, AC, et al had a grudge on OZ you might see them forced out. But I can't see that happening. If (hopefully not) this merger goes through, OZ will leave when its ready.

yeunganson

It's like Brixit... Joining an alliance have some major legal agreement and need approval of other member airlines. Leaving an alliance also means going through a bunch of procedures, settling the all the bills and give time for other alliance members to remove Asiana from their booking system. All of this means time and it's a negotiated timeline.

As for executives on Asiana, it's foolish to start anything until the merger is completed in which... you get your huge buy-out bonus, golden parachute and leave the company and leave all the work for the other Korean Air executives that takes over. If you start proactively doing merger work (like starting the leaving the Star Alliance procedures) and the deal falls apart, you lose all that buy-out bonus, Asiana is in worst position than before with a half-baked alliance-exit process, and you get fired for being reckless.

1353513636

It's a bit of both, *A can't force OZ to stay but there are rules about how much notice you have to give before you can leave and I believe you also have to pay an exit fee, perhaps the timeline is negotiated alongside the exit fee although OZ is hardly in a position to pay extra for expedited exit from *A.

I think I would be okay with OZ leaving early for SkyTeam as then we would be able to book awards on VN/GA/CI using OZ rules, which can be hard to get for a reasonable amount of miles since all the DL devaluations. What would be bad is if OZ stops allowing *A redemptions but doesn't leave *A so the only options for redemption are on OZ metal until the miles are integrated fully with the soon-to-be-worthless KE program. Is this allowed under *A rules....my hunch would be no but I'm not sure, and if they wanted to they could just make *A redemptions super complicated and expensive so in practice no one would book them.

SightseeMC

Funnily enough, OZ hopping to ST would mean I'd get a lounge in my US homebase airport again (PHX). I'd also get the "bragging rights" of getting that OZ D+ pack right before OZ ceased to exist. Maybe I should stop letting my cat sleep on the blanket.

1353513636

But you could only use it when flying internationally with ST.

SightseeMC

True, but it'll work for getting back to Seoul. Better than current non-existent United Club.

downinit

FYI, if you live in the USA, UA is offering the Infinite Card, which provides lounge access, for no fee for the first year. There is no telling how long this promo will last, but it would provide a year of 'select' *G lounge access while building up miles in another program, since OZ could exit *A at any moment. I changed the FF on my current trip from OZ to TK, but it will be hard for me to hit 40k miles until Asia opens up.

LAX

Does the card offer priority security access (including overseas)? That's a key benefit to me as there are many options for lounge access.

LAX

zeer0

Only when flying United. You get all the United Premier Access benefits.

flyingkid

Korean Air's Asiana deal hits turbulence as stakeholder objects


https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Bus...holder-objects

LAX

I wonder how long OZ can survive without a buyer/bailout.

LAX

yeunganson

Probably find another mega corp to take over

mikesaidyes

They can't. It just wasn't being discussed publicly too much in Western media. This is of no shock to anyone in Korea their situation.....and IMO even if "Stakeholders" object, the government has a VERY strong hand in everything business here and basically the businesses must follow the govt.