Speculation on AA Route Cuts
Apr 16, 2026 | 12:10 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2023
Posts: 256
Speculation on AA Route Cuts
With Norse and Edelweiss announcing cuts to the U.S. due to the cost of fuel, it is not hard to imagine U.S. carriers following suit on some of their overseas routes. Which overseas routes do you think are likely to get the axe on AA if we get to that point? My top guesses are DFW-BNE (insane amount of capacity from DFW-South Pacific) and one of the recently added Athens flights (probably JFK; the season is much shorter this year).
Apr 16, 2026 | 2:16 pm
#2
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Dfw-BNE is seasonal and ended a few weeks ago. I guess theyll have to see what things look like later in the year when it would resume. We arent privy to any individual route profitability numbers, but they did announce a preliminary Q1 guidance a few weeks ago highlighting 10% year over year revenue increase in Q1 with heavy premium demand. If some of that came on a route like BNE, then it could bode well. The official Q1 numbers come next week.
as for others scheduled the coming peak European season, I guess theyd look at routes with weak bookings where they can funnel them to another flight.
as for others scheduled the coming peak European season, I guess theyd look at routes with weak bookings where they can funnel them to another flight.
Apr 16, 2026 | 4:16 pm
#3
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Dfw-BNE is seasonal and ended a few weeks ago. I guess theyll have to see what things look like later in the year when it would resume. We arent privy to any individual route profitability numbers, but they did announce a preliminary Q1 guidance a few weeks ago highlighting 10% year over year revenue increase in Q1 with heavy premium demand. If some of that came on a route like BNE, then it could bode well. The official Q1 numbers come next week.
as for others scheduled the coming peak European season, I guess theyd look at routes with weak bookings where they can funnel them to another flight.
as for others scheduled the coming peak European season, I guess theyd look at routes with weak bookings where they can funnel them to another flight.
Apr 17, 2026 | 1:15 am
#5
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Join Date: Apr 2023
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The fact that AA trimmed some winter long haul last month due to the 77W retrofits may turn out to be a blessing in disguise if demand drops or fuel prices go up.
Apr 17, 2026 | 7:49 am
#6
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AA long-haul flying is more limited by capacity than by fuel costs. Its stinginess with the orderbook in the 2010s left it unable to replace the 763s, 757 lie flats, and A332s it parked in COVID, to say the least of serve new demand. It doesnt have the JFK slots or airside LGA-JFK shuttle that would enable it to service high-margin ex-NYC destinations that have no OneWorld partner - Seoul, Beijing, Frankfurt, Amsterdam. Zurich.
With Norse and Edelweiss announcing cuts to the U.S. due to the cost of fuel, it is not hard to imagine U.S. carriers following suit on some of their overseas routes. Which overseas routes do you think are likely to get the axe on AA if we get to that point? My top guesses are DFW-BNE (insane amount of capacity from DFW-South Pacific) and one of the recently added Athens flights (probably JFK; the season is much shorter this year).
Apr 17, 2026 | 9:38 am
#7
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2023
Posts: 256
AA long-haul flying is more limited by capacity than by fuel costs. Its stinginess with the orderbook in the 2010s left it unable to replace the 763s, 757 lie flats, and A332s it parked in COVID, to say the least of serve new demand. It doesnt have the JFK slots or airside LGA-JFK shuttle that would enable it to service high-margin ex-NYC destinations that have no OneWorld partner - Seoul, Beijing, Frankfurt, Amsterdam. Zurich.
Not to derail this thread, but JFK-FRA/AMS/ZRH could be great XLR routes. AA doesn't even serve Beijing on their own metal. They'll probably re-add it from DFW or LAX. ICN will probably see a 2nd DFW flight or LAX well before it gets JFK service.
Apr 17, 2026 | 1:28 pm
#8
Join Date: Sep 2024
Posts: 204
Folks, oil is already on its way back down. It's not going to be $100 six months from now. I cannot understand why all of y'all are such short-sighted. In 2008, oil was much higher and for a much longer period of time. We are 6 weeks into this and things are already calming down. Patience everyone. Not everything has to be so dramatic and act like it's the end of the world. Relax.
Apr 17, 2026 | 2:24 pm
#9
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Folks, oil is already on its way back down. It's not going to be $100 six months from now. I cannot understand why all of y'all are such short-sighted. In 2008, oil was much higher and for a much longer period of time. We are 6 weeks into this and things are already calming down. Patience everyone. Not everything has to be so dramatic and act like it's the end of the world. Relax.
Apr 17, 2026 | 2:56 pm
#10
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Apr 18, 2026 | 7:40 am
#11
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 713
Do the airlines have any protection in place against short-term spikes in fuel costs? According to the information I have seen online, the major US carriers all stopped their fuel hedging programs. Do they have any protections in place vis-a-vis their fuel suppliers?
Last edited by dc10forlife; Apr 18, 2026 at 7:52 am
Apr 18, 2026 | 1:26 pm
#14
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Folks, oil is already on its way back down. It's not going to be $100 six months from now. I cannot understand why all of y'all are such short-sighted. In 2008, oil was much higher and for a much longer period of time. We are 6 weeks into this and things are already calming down. Patience everyone. Not everything has to be so dramatic and act like it's the end of the world. Relax.
https://wapo.st/4chi6ZQ
Apr 19, 2026 | 3:42 am
#15
Join Date: Mar 2024
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Folks, oil is already on its way back down. It's not going to be $100 six months from now. I cannot understand why all of y'all are such short-sighted. In 2008, oil was much higher and for a much longer period of time. We are 6 weeks into this and things are already calming down. Patience everyone. Not everything has to be so dramatic and act like it's the end of the world. Relax.