Originally Posted by
AAPilot48Heavy
Folks, oil is already on its way back down. It's not going to be $100 six months from now. I cannot understand why all of y'all are such short-sighted. In 2008, oil was much higher and for a much longer period of time. We are 6 weeks into this and things are already calming down. Patience everyone. Not everything has to be so dramatic and act like it's the end of the world. Relax.
And it’s about to be on its way back up again. Which, in a roundabout manner, proves your point about predicting being a mugs game. The same six-week to two month lag in shortages (except places with lower reserves, looking at you, Australia) due to stored reserve levels is the problem with refreshing those reserves while providing for normal demand. That means the longer this seesaw continues, the more difficult things might be…but just how much might vary wildly depending on what occurs/gets out during the downswings in “excitement”.