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-   -   Chance of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2025 Master Thread) (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/2186391-chance-upgrade-clearing-availability-2025-master-thread.html)

355F1 Jul 28, 2025 9:47 am

My EXP GF just got upgraded RSW-DFW-PHX at the T-100 Window for Friday travel home.

I told her to go buy a Powerball Ticket. :p

AB Dada Jul 28, 2025 9:58 am


Originally Posted by 355F1 (Post 37229532)
My EXP GF just got upgraded RSW-DFW-PHX at the T-100 Window for Friday travel home.

I told her to go buy a Powerball Ticket. :p

I cleared FLL-ORD and TPA-ORD as a lower EXP at T-100 but there were a TON of seats last minute.

FlyFreakquently Jul 31, 2025 8:12 am

For any elites expecting an upgrade to SFO this weekend, I'll see you in Main Cabin Extra. Flying DFW-SFO tomorrow and more than half of the flights on the route are zero'd out in both classes, courtesy of Dead and Co. performing three consecutive days at Golden Gate Park.

WannaTheater Jul 31, 2025 9:11 am


Originally Posted by FlyFreakquently (Post 37235112)
For any elites expecting an upgrade to SFO this weekend, I'll see you in Main Cabin Extra. Flying DFW-SFO tomorrow and more than half of the flights on the route are zero'd out in both classes, courtesy of Dead and Co. performing three consecutive days at Golden Gate Park.

Boo! Would've been better to see them at The Sphere in Vegas :)

Yank8823 Jul 31, 2025 7:52 pm

PLT with 100K Rolling LP

7/28 - PIT to DFW - 17/28, no one cleared
7/28 - DFW to PHX - 19/29, 3 cleared at gate - agent came and got the person in front of me for upgrade while on plane
7/30: PHX to PIT - 4/10, no one cleared (only 8 seats in F)

safari ari Jul 31, 2025 8:00 pm

LGA-RDU Monday Morning, Cleared T-100. Upgrades were selling for $88 ~300k LPs

bryanb Aug 2, 2025 10:54 am

Now that AA is flying 777-200ERs on its flagship transcontinental route between JFK and LAX, I’m trying to decide if I should choose the A321T or the 777 (from an upgrade chance perspective) whenever my company books me in economy.

Looks like the 777 has 37 business seats in a 1-2-1 configuration, vs. the 20 J seats in A321T’s 2-2 configuration.

Anyone have hope that the 777s will be meaningfully easier for upgrades?

OligarchTrader Aug 2, 2025 11:02 am

8/02 TUS -PHX - 15 on list two cleared

8/02 PHX - TPA 12 on list zero cleared it was J4 yesterday

FlyFreakquently Aug 2, 2025 11:12 am


Originally Posted by FlyFreakquently (Post 37235112)
For any elites expecting an upgrade to SFO this weekend, I'll see you in Main Cabin Extra. Flying DFW-SFO tomorrow and more than half of the flights on the route are zero'd out in both classes, courtesy of Dead and Co. performing three consecutive days at Golden Gate Park.

Flights to SFO were definitely busier than usual yesterday, but it seems that AA was holding back inventory, at least on my flight.


8/1/25 AA3375 BTR-DFW: Cleared at T-25.5 with a companion. 8 on the list for 1 seat.

8/1/25 AA2228 DFW-SFO: Cleared at T-6 with a companion after the waitlist showed 8 open, then 6, then 7, then 12. Ended up being 11 on the list for 2 seat.

Antarius Aug 2, 2025 11:14 am


Originally Posted by bryanb (Post 37238910)
Now that AA is flying 777-200ERs on its flagship transcontinental route between JFK and LAX, I’m trying to decide if I should choose the A321T or the 777 (from an upgrade chance perspective) whenever my company books me in economy.

Looks like the 777 has 37 business seats in a 1-2-1 configuration, vs. the 20 J seats in A321T’s 2-2 configuration.

Anyone have hope that the 777s will be meaningfully easier for upgrades?

The 321T realistically has 30 seats. AA routinely oversells J as almost no one pays for F.

bryanb Aug 2, 2025 12:05 pm


Originally Posted by Antarius (Post 37238946)
The 321T realistically has 30 seats. AA routinely oversells J as almost no one pays for F.

You’re right. I wish I had better luck in this though. I’ve routinely been seated in economy as #1 or 2 on the waitlist, and not gotten the upgrade even though F wasn’t full. On my last flight, the last three F seats went to non-rev passengers. It was a woman and two small children, who had been waiting at the airport since 7 a.m. and finally got on the second to last flight of the night. Not mad about it, just used the data point that those seats went to non-rev instead of bumping more people up on the upgrade list.

OligarchTrader Aug 2, 2025 12:23 pm


Originally Posted by bryanb (Post 37239003)
You’re right. I wish I had better luck in this though. I’ve routinely been seated in economy as #1 or 2 on the waitlist, and not gotten the upgrade even though F wasn’t full. On my last flight, the last three F seats went to non-rev passengers. It was a woman and two small children, who had been waiting at the airport since 7 a.m. and finally got on the second to last flight of the night. Not mad about it, just used the data point that those seats went to non-rev instead of bumping more people up on the upgrade list.

just out of curiosity what have the upgrade offers been? And Why would they go out with empty seats? TIA

Antarius Aug 2, 2025 12:26 pm


Originally Posted by OligarchTrader (Post 37239037)
just out of curiosity what have the upgrade offers been? And Why would they go out with empty seats? TIA

AA doesn't cabin roll unless there is a need. If the flight is F5 J1, AA will continue to sell 5 F seats and 6 J seats. If no one buys the F seats and 4 people buy J, 3 people will be cabin rolled to F. This will leave 2 seats in F that, unless someone upgrades from J or buys, will become available for nonrevs.

bryanb Aug 2, 2025 1:12 pm


Originally Posted by Antarius (Post 37239046)
AA doesn't cabin roll unless there is a need. If the flight is F5 J1, AA will continue to sell 5 F seats and 6 J seats. If no one buys the F seats and 4 people buy J, 3 people will be cabin rolled to F. This will leave 2 seats in F that, unless someone upgrades from J or buys, will become available for nonrevs.

This policy sounds like it’s probably a good one from a revenue maximization perspective. But as a low-level EXP I’ve never been upgraded on a transcontinental flight. I’m curious as to what the rationale would be to put non-revs in F first, rather than giving them seats in the back. (On my flight with the mom and two kids, perhaps there were not three seats together in Y, but I’ve seen this happen on other situations too.)

Antarius Aug 2, 2025 1:49 pm


Originally Posted by bryanb (Post 37239101)
This policy sounds like it’s probably a good one from a revenue maximization perspective. But as a low-level EXP I’ve never been upgraded on a transcontinental flight. I’m curious as to what the rationale would be to put non-revs in F first, rather than giving them seats in the back. (On my flight with the mom and two kids, perhaps there were not three seats together in Y, but I’ve seen this happen on other situations too.)

It is part of the contract. Nonrevs are entitled to the highest available cabin after passengers are cleared.

What time are you usually flying? There are a handful of peak flights that go out full on paid J regularly and several others that are fairly easy clears, IME.


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